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Behind the Markets
NVIDIA's Earnings Show a Green Light for Taiwan Semiconductor
Written by Gabriel Osorio-Mazilli. Published 8/28/2025.
Key Points
- NVIDIA's recent earnings results highlight a new path higher for Taiwan Semiconductor stock, as demand is quickly outpacing production supply.
- Markets are placing a premium on Taiwan Semiconductor's sales for a reason.
- Institutions are buying in the billions ahead of the next quarterly earnings announcement.
Most profits aren't made by prospecting during a gold rush; they're earned by selling the tools—like shovels—to those on the hunt. Occasionally—even twice in a single economic cycle—a new gold rush emerges, and a fresh cadre of "shovel makers" quietly reap the rewards.
Today, the "gold" is AI-driven chips, and the "shovel makers" are wafer equipment providers and foundry specialists.
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Hyperscaler spending—think cloud giants and AI pioneers—has surpassed $1 trillion, driven by more companies adopting an "AI-first" strategy. As a result, demand for chips and semiconductors is soaring. One firm controls over 75% of this market: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM). And one of its biggest customers just gave the market another reason to buy.
NVIDIA's Growth: A Cash Windfall for Taiwan Semiconductor
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) recently released its quarterly results—one of the market's most eagerly awaited reports, given NVIDIA's status as the largest S&P 500 constituent and a staple in countless portfolios. Though it draws enormous attention (and capital), trading NVIDIA can be trickier than it appears.
Still, NVIDIA serves as a bellwether for chipmakers. The company posted data center revenue of $41.1 billion—a 56% year-over-year jump—thanks to its new Blackwell superchip. Since these three-nanometer chips are manufactured exclusively by TSMC at the most advanced nodes, each NVIDIA order directly boosts TSMC's revenue and pricing leverage.
That relationship represents a major, albeit underappreciated, opportunity for retail investors in this dynamic duo.
TSMC's Valuation Premium: Justified and Strategic
Investors are willing to pay up to 11.5× price-to-sales (P/S) for TSMC shares today—and for good reason. As NVIDIA's appetite for advanced chips grows, potential capacity constraints at TSMC could translate into enhanced pricing power and more favorable contract terms for the foundry.
And it's not just NVIDIA. Other hyperscalers—including Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)—also depend on TSMC's cutting-edge processes.
Remember the chip shortage of 2020–2022, when foundries hiked prices dramatically because automakers, smartphone makers, and cloud companies had no alternatives? If demand continues to outstrip supply, TSMC can again command a premium for its wafers. The market, eager to secure access to this growth, is comfortable rewarding TSMC with a higher P/S multiple.
For investors wary of overpaying, cheap money isn't always cheap. Institutional players understand this, which explains why $8.6 billion worth of institutional buying has occurred in TSMC stock over the past quarter alone.
There's also a surprise factor in TSMC's future earnings potential. MarketBeat's consensus EPS forecast for Q3 2025 is about $2.52, up slightly from the $2.47 reported this quarter.
The real opportunity may come from positioning ahead of a potential earnings beat. When NVIDIA's surging demand shows up in TSMC's next-quarter results, a repeat of the last beat—when TSMC topped the $2.13 consensus by 16%—could propel TSMC shares to fresh 52-week highs.
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