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3 Energy Stocks That Could Rally If the Oil Bears Are Wrong
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/21/2025.
Key Points
- Chevron is growing Permian production and adding Guyana exposure after completing its Hess merger.
- Exxon Mobil is the largest Permian operator, with LNG and Guyana projects offering additional upside if demand strengthens.
- Schlumberger offers high-beta potential as long-cycle offshore and international projects accelerate with higher oil prices.
OPEC+ nations' recent decision to boost production has stoked concerns of an oversupplied market, compounded by rising hopes of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal.
This macro narrative has weighed on energy stocks, making the sector one of the worst performers. Oil equities, in particular, haven't rallied despite robust cash flows.
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But the bear case for oil may be overcrowded. Demand appears underestimated, and a shift higher in prices could propel energy stocks into late 2025 and 2026. Some top names are also best-in-class picks.
The Bull Case for Higher Oil Prices
First, the Federal Reserve: the CME FedWatch tool shows an 83.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in 2025. Even a single reduction would likely boost industrial activity, travel, and freight—bullish for oil.
Second, while data-center demand grabs headlines, residential use of electricity and heating fuels remains sticky and seasonal. In many regions, oil-fired generation still contributes, making this consumption less elastic than assumed.
Third, OPEC+ has not committed to further supply increases beyond September, potentially tightening the market and supporting prices.
Finally, geopolitical risks—whether renewed conflict or higher tariffs on major importers like India—could persist longer than expected.
Chevron: Permian Growth and Guyana Exposure
Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) is up 7.7% in 2025 after climbing 9.9% from its April 52-week low. The completed merger with Hess Co. adds exposure to Guyana's high-quality reserves.
Yet Chevron's core growth engine remains the Permian Basin, where it produces 800,000–850,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). The company continues to improve capital efficiency in the basin, a key growth driver.
On MarketBeat, analyst forecasts give CVX a consensus price target of $164.11, implying roughly 5% upside. Several analysts have raised targets following the Aug. 1 earnings report.
Exxon Mobil: Permian Leadership and Guyana Payback
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) has been the largest single operator in the Permian since completing its Pioneer Natural Resources acquisition in 2024, producing about 1.6–1.8 million boe/d. Exxon aims to reach 2 million boe/d by 2027.
Beyond the Permian, higher oil prices should bolster LNG prices and accelerate returns from its Guyana operations.
XOM is down roughly 0.8% in 2025 and trading in a range despite an April spike. Analysts' consensus target of $125.84 offers about 17% upside, plus a 3.71% dividend yield.
Schlumberger: A High-Beta Play on a Long-Cycle Upturn
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) provides high-beta exposure for investors seeking more leverage to an oil-demand surprise. Oilfield services stocks are more volatile than the integrated majors but can deliver outsized gains if demand exceeds expectations.
SLB's multi-year projects and international backlog could drive the strongest upside in the sector if demand rebounds. The company's "picks and shovels" are critical to upstream producers.
After strong 2024 demand, 2025 volumes have lagged, and SLB is down 12.8% this year. However, MarketBeat's consensus price target of $49.28 indicates over 47% upside.
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