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Lowe's Builds Value for Investors: Still a Good Buy in 2025
Written by Thomas Hughes. Published 8/20/2025.
Key Points
- Lowe's Q2 results underscore its buy-and-hold qualities and why it's still a good buy in 2025.
- Cash flow and capital returns are solid and are likely to continue supporting the uptrend over time.
- Acquisitions position it to accelerate growth with or without a recovery in housing.
Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) FQ2 2026 earnings report confirms it's still a sound buy, delivering value through capital returns and equity gains. Highlights included a beat-and-raise quarter, improved profitability and new acquisitions that expand its Pro market exposure while deepening its presence in the new home segment.
Despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, Lowe's is growing and has the financial clout to position itself for the future. That future includes an eventual housing market rebound, driven by demand in both DIY and Pro sectors.
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The supply-demand imbalance in housing has persisted for over a decade—demand has outstripped supply, underpinning rising home prices. While some markets remain stagnant, the FOMC is on track to begin cutting interest rates later this year.
However, rates are unlikely to fall sharply, and recovery may take time. In a best-case scenario, housing markets could accelerate by early to mid-2025. In the worst case, a recession could intervene before then.
Lowe's Capital Return and Balance Sheet Are Recession-Proof
Lowe's may not be completely recession-resistant, but it has qualities that make it a buy-and-hold stock regardless of economic conditions. Its strong balance sheet and dividend yield approximately 1.9% as of mid-August.
An almost-2% yield alone doesn't offset all risk, but Lowe's status as a Dividend Aristocrat and Dividend King—with over 60 consecutive years of dividend increases—underscores its resilience. The company has weathered multiple recessions, including the 2008 housing crash and global financial crisis, without interrupting its payouts.
Lowe's also repurchases shares, reducing the share count significantly over time and supporting the upward trajectory of its stock. Although it paused buybacks in FQ2 to invest in new businesses, it still achieved a 1.5% year-over-year reduction in shares over the past 12 months. Buybacks are expected to resume.
Over the last five years, Lowe's has cut its share count by more than 25%, and by 45% over ten years. Its balance sheet is as healthy as ever: increased cash and total assets, alongside reductions in long-term debt and total liabilities, led to a 17% decrease in deficit and improving net leverage.
Lowe's Guides for Growth: Analysts Forecast Accelerating Momentum
Guidance for the rest of 2025 was better than feared, though it may add some stock volatility this fall. Revenues are projected above prior estimates, while margins are expected to be slightly narrower.
The forecast for adjusted EPS remains unchanged at a low-end $12.20, compared with MarketBeat's consensus of $12.25—about 2% year-over-year growth. However, the longer-term outlook is stronger. Analysts now expect revenue and earnings growth to accelerate into the high single digits over the next few years and to sustain that pace thereafter, especially after recent acquisitions.
Lowe's share price has reflected both the strong results and market uncertainty. The stock briefly broke through a key resistance level before pulling back, confirming that level as resistance. It could rally further from here, but downside risk remains; a retreat toward support around $220 is possible if headwinds persist.
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