Thursday, May 1, 2025

The 75% Win Rate Pattern I Trust With My Money

And AAPL, AMZN earnings after the close
 
   
     
AAPL and AMZN Earnings After the Close
 
 
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.

Apple AAPL earnings are out after the close today. Amazon AMZN is also reporting today after the close.  We have a big week of earnings this week and next.

Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving! 

Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. 

 
— — — 

The 75% Win Rate Pattern I Trust With My Money

I touched on yesterday the Daily Chart Setup that’s in this newsletter each day… 

Keep scrolling lower and you’ll find it! I want to spend today talking a little more about the setup and how it works, for those wondering. 

You see, I don’t take just any setup that crosses my screen. With thousands of tickers to scan and only so much capital to put to work, I’m laser-focused on the highest-probability trades — and that’s exactly what my signature breakout pattern delivers.

I’ve tested this across nearly 60,000 trades. When a stock closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement after bouncing off the Market Roadmap line, we’ve got a 75% win rate and a 1.28 profit factor. That means for every $1 risked, the system has historically returned $1.28. That’s not a get-rich-quick setup — it’s a repeatable edge that compounds over time.


The Anatomy of the Setup

The pattern starts with a clean bounce off the Market Roadmap line — that’s step one. Then we look for a close above the 61.8% retracement level. That triggers the conservative entry. 

From there, I’m targeting the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level, which gets hit 70% of the time. But I’m not greedy — I want consistency. So I stick with the target that hits 75% of the time.

Now, a lot of folks like to chase the big 161.8% extension, but that only gets hit 35% of the time. That’s gambling, not trading. 

I’ll take the high-probability setup every single time.


What to Watch — and What to Avoid

Here’s where it gets tricky. If a stock has less than 30 historical setups in the database, those stats don’t mean anything. You’ve got to fall back on the global backtest results instead. 

But if it does have a full statistical population and the win rate is under 75% or the profit factor drops below 1.0? 

I skip it — no exceptions.

Some of the best tickers I’ve seen lately have had perfect or near-perfect records on the setup. Others, like Cooper Standard (CPS) or FIS (FIS), showed up with entries but came in with negative profit factors. That’s a red flag.

This is about stacking the odds in your favor — not throwing darts at a board.

Bottom line: This isn’t just a pattern I talk about. It’s the one I trade, day in and day out. The one I trust when I want to put real money to work. And it all starts with the Roadmap line, the 61.8% retracement, and a 75% win rate staring me in the face.

Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!

 
 
‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!

And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page!
_____________________________________________________
We Could Slide Into a Major Crash in the Coming Weeks…
 
 
The mainstream media is overlooking one crucial pattern that could send us right into a market crash we’ve never seen before...
 
 
 

But there’s a way to stay ahead of whatever happens! 
 
 
Get the Complete Details Here!
_____________________________________________________
Today’s Daily Chart Setup: RB Global (RBA)  
 
 
 

This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. 
 
RBA is a new potential entry. Target: 109.66 Stop below: 86.87
 
RBA has a historical win rate of 84.0%
 
RBA has a profit factor of 3.273
 
RBA trades last 40 trading days on average over 25 trades since 1998.

See the secret behind these signals here!  

This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.


How the Daily Chart Setup Works

Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:

1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line. 

2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 

3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. 

I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!

You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!

Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!

I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. 


*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 
   
 

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