Thursday, April 17, 2025

Why Nvidia’s Export Ban May Backfire

Netflix Earnings After the Close
 
   
     
Netflix Earnings After the Close
 
 
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.

Netflix (NFLX) reports earnings after the close today, right into the long weekend shutdown. Since this is the first of big tech earnings, NFLX might set the stage for what’s to come in the next couple of weeks.  


Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving! 

Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. 

 
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Why Nvidia’s Export Ban May Backfire

The latest blow in the U.S.-China tech war landed squarely on Nvidia’s (NVDA) doorstep — and the stock took it on the chin. The government’s new restrictions on AI chip exports, including the H20 GPU that was specifically designed to comply with earlier bans, sent NVDA tumbling nearly 7% even after a sharp rally into the close.

And you can’t say it wasn’t expected.

This kind of escalation has been brewing for months. Nvidia tried to thread the needle by creating a product that tiptoed around the rules, but Washington’s response made it clear…

If China can use it, it’s going on the blacklist.

Now, I’m not here to argue politics. I’m just here to say this kind of policy is more likely to backfire than do any real good.


Banning Innovation Won’t Stop Progress

Here’s the problem: You can’t stop the flow of innovation. If you build a tool — whether it’s a GPU, a hammer or a rocket — it’s eventually going to find its way to the people who want to use it. 

Good, bad or otherwise.

Trying to limit that access with artificial barriers is like trying to hold a basketball underwater — eventually, it pops back up. And when it does, it usually comes up harder and faster than before.

Rather than putting up walls, we should be doubling down on support for innovation right here at home. Foster the talent, fund the R&D and make the U.S. the place where the best ideas are born — and stay.


Stocks React, but the Bigger Risk Is Structural

Nvidia wasn’t the only one caught in the crossfire. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also dropped more than 7% after disclosing up to $800 million in potential charges tied to these same export rules. That’s real money, real risk and real damage to the Semiconductor sector (SMH) — one of the few areas still showing leadership in a choppy tape.

Long term, these kinds of restrictions don’t just ding stock prices — they reshape the entire landscape. If U.S. companies can’t sell to the world’s second-largest economy, that revenue doesn’t just evaporate — it gets redirected to someone else.

So yeah, the short-term reaction is one thing. But the bigger risk is letting fear dictate policy. Because if we keep this up, we’re not just hurting China — we’re making it a lot harder for our own innovators to compete.

Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!

 
 
‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!

And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page!
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Another News Notice Just Flashed on a Weird Stock
 
 
I’m teaming up with Chris Pulver again at 4 p.m. ET today to reveal this “weird” stock’s name and ticker..
 
 

You'll also see how you can play it before it has a chance to go mainstream.
 
 
Join Chris and I LIVE at 4 PM ET
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Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Novartis AG (NVS)  
 
 
 

This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. 
 
NVS is a new potential entry. Target: 119.69 Stop below: 96.72
 
NVS has a historical win rate of 76.92%
 
NVS has a profit factor of 2.06
 
NVS trades last 78 trading days on average over 26 trades since 1995.
 
See the secret behind these signals here!  

This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.


How the Daily Chart Setup Works

Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:

1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line. 

2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 

3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. 

I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!

You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!

Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!

I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. 


*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 
   
 

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