On Again Off Again Tariffs First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.
Tariffs on again, tariffs off again. Can we move on past this and get back to some other data for the markets to digest? Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving!
Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. — — — Trading Around Dividends: A Secret Edge Few Traders Understand Most traders focus on charts, earnings or big economic headlines. But there's one critical market move many overlook — dividend price adjustments.
A dividend isn’t just free money landing in your account. It comes directly out of a stock’s share price. The day a stock pays a dividend, known as the ex-dividend date, its price automatically drops by roughly the amount of that dividend. If you don't account for that adjustment, charts look misleading.
Take Ares Capital Corp. (ARCC), for example. On a non-adjusted chart, those sudden dips look ugly — and alarming. But once you realize they’re dividend-driven adjustments, everything makes sense. ARCC didn’t lose value overnight…
It simply paid shareholders, lowering the share price accordingly. Eventually, it recovers. The Trading Edge Most Investors Miss Dividend-driven price drops can create short-term volatility that many traders wrongly interpret as bearish signals. But for savvy traders, this volatility is an opportunity.
Once you understand the cycle — price drop, investor panic, then eventual rebound — you have a predictable, tradable pattern.
Stocks paying high dividends, like JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI), show this pattern clearly. Every dividend payment creates a noticeable drop.
Unaware traders panic-sell, assuming something’s gone horribly wrong. The smart money, however, buys into this temporary weakness, knowing that JEPI tends to quickly regain lost ground. Leveraging Dividend Volatility Here’s how to trade around dividends effectively…
First, identify stocks or ETFs with high yields and predictable dividend histories. Second, note their ex-dividend dates and watch closely. When the price drops, wait briefly for selling to slow, then consider buying the dip. Typically, a swift recovery follows as value investors swoop in, drawn by attractive yields.
This strategy doesn’t rely on complicated indicators. It exploits simple, predictable human behavior — panic followed by rationality.
Remember, though, no strategy is foolproof. Always manage your risk and size your positions carefully. Dividend dips are reliable opportunities, but the market always has the final say.
Understanding this hidden market dynamic — dividends as predictable price volatility — can be your secret edge in trading. Most investors overlook these moves entirely, but once you spot them, you'll never see dividends the same way again.
Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube! I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!
And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page! _____________________________________________________ See exactly why I’m ditching 8,252 stocks to focus on just 3!
The signals shaping up in the market point to major chaos ahead…
That’s why I’m focusing on just THREE tickers to make the most of it – no matter what happens. Want details? _____________________________________________________ Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Fastenal Co. (FAST)
 This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. - FAST is a new potential entry. Target: 83.82 Stop below: 69.61
- FAST has a historical win rate of 93.1%
- FAST has a profit factor of 5.664
- FAST trades last 53 trading days on average over 29 trades since 1987.
See the secret behind these signals here!
This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. How the Daily Chart Setup Works Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:
1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line.
2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months.
3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry.
I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!
You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places! Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. *This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. |
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