Monday, April 21, 2025

This conclave will be different

Pope Francis' legacy is on the line.
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Today's Agenda

Papal Intrigue

If you have yet to watch Conclave, perhaps you felt a bit left out today since every other social post about Pope Francis' passing referenced the movie. Lucky for you, Amazon Prime will begin streaming it tomorrow so you still have time to take notes before the actual papal conclave begins next month. First Pope Francis will have a funeral, of course, and he has requested a simple one. And then cardinals from around the world will descend on Rome to choose his successor. Unlike the one Ralph Fiennes presided over, though, this conclave could last more than 72 hours.

Previous conclaves have lasted weeks, months and yes, even years. From 1268 to 1271, cardinals bickered endlessly over who would fill the late Pope Clement IV's ruby red slippers. Back in those days, popes could marry and have children. Clement — widowed prior to his pontificate — had two daughters, both of whom lived in a convent. Pope Adrian II, who led the church a handful of decades earlier, lived with his wife Stephania — his "popess," if you will — and his daughter in the Lateran Palace. She went on to marry a relative of the Church's chief librarian who conveniently failed to mention that he was previously betrothed to another. Then her husband had the gall to abduct and murder both her and her mother! Poor Adrian couldn't catch a break.

Although the modern papal world [1] is thankfully less gruesome, it's not without its share of scandal. In March 2013, Howard Chua-Eoan says, Pope Francis inherited a church beset with problems: A looming budgetary crisis, a litany of child abuse offenses and a 500-year-old administrative structure in need of reform.

"His public persona may have been the humble and patient father figure, but Francis spent his 12 years as pope reorganizing the Vatican bureaucracy — the Roman curia — with more than a touch of ruthlessness. It was the kind of steely, no-nonsense style he honed when, as Archbishop of Buenos Aires, he had to clean up a banking scandal inherited from his predecessor," Howard writes.

But he likely won't be remembered for cleaning up the coffers, or even as the first pope to forgive dozing off while praying or to inspire AI-generated memes. He will be remembered for his progressivism. Despite that little slip-up he had in front of his colleagues last year, the pontiff was a champion of gay rights. He was encouraging of Jewish-Catholic dialogue. He was an advocate for marginalized people, regardless of religion or background. That mercy afforded him many fans, but it also made him some foes.

In the coming conclave, all the changes the first Latin American pope implemented will be put to the test. "It's not impossible that Eurocentric conservatives and right-wing American prelates — who may have the sympathies of Vice President JD Vance, a recent convert who just visited the pontiff — might combine with Francis' newly minted African Cardinals, who've pushed back against his attempts at conciliation with gay Catholics. Cardinals who feel they've been shunted out of power by the reforms may also use their vote for comeuppance," Howard warns. Read the whole thing.

Mr. Too Late

What's worse: Being called "Mr. Too Late" or "a major loser"? It's a tough choice!! But if you're Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, you don't need to decide. You get to be both:

President Donald Trump's love for acrimonious nicknames knows no bounds. Nor does his ire for the Fed chair: Trump's economic advisers reportedly spent the weekend dreaming up ways to bring him down. But as much as the president would like to walk up to Powell as if he were a contestant on The Celebrity Apprentice and say, "You're fired!" he can't really do that.

As John Authers notes, "a president can fire a Fed chairman but only 'for cause'; nothing about independence protects him or her from accountability for fiddling expenses or insider trading." Powell has ostensibly done none of those things, and so John says firing him "will require either a change in the law governing the Fed's relationship to the executive, or a big stretch of the concept of 'cause.'"

If the Supreme Court gets involved, as Kathryn Judge and Lev Menand suspect it might, the concept of Fed independence could soon become a mirage. As for Trump's big wish — preemptive rate cuts — Bill Dudley says the trade war is getting in the way: "The economic outlook is unusually cloudy. There is no precedent for the rapid increase in US tariffs that have been far larger than Fed officials anticipated," he writes. More broadly, Daniel Moss says central bankers around the world are "feeling their way through the tariff drama, just like the rest of us."

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Ride Like Paul Revere

I'll admit, I didn't know Patriots' Day was a thing until this year! Did I devour all those Paul Revere reenactments on TikTok? Absolutely; who wouldn't want to watch a bunch of grown men wearing funny hats gallop on horseback through a sea of iPhones! Did I know that the Boston Marathon coincided with his midnight ride? No, certainly not. Am I now jealous that some people had today off work?? Well, duh. But Frank Barry says I'm not alone in my ignorance: Only six states recognize the holiday and Boston is, uh, unique in its patriotic cosplay.

"Although April 19 marks the 250th anniversary of the start of the Revolutionary War, all the hoopla for the nation's 250th birthday will center on July 4, 2026, the anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence — which took place 15 months after the war began," he writes. "The fact that most Americans date our national birth to a document rather than a war is a testament to our attachment to the 'self-evident' truths within it, and how central they are to the way we understand our national identity — and unity." Neat. Now I'm in the mood for some Dunkin'.

Telltale Charts

Nia-Malika Henderson poses a great question in her column today: Does MAGA have room for Black Republicans? Looking at Trump's team — and the spectacular downfall of Mark Robinson — you'd assume the answer is no: "Trump's cabinet has just one Black member." But there are four Black Republicans running for statewide offices, and they could change the status quo: "Even if just one of them won, it would be remarkable — since Reconstruction, there have been only four Black governors and nine Black people elected to the Senate," she writes. 

What's with the underrepresentation? "It's clear that a broad swath of voters accept behavior from White candidates that they wouldn't likely accept from a Black one. It's hard to imagine a Black version of a scandal-plagued White House like Donald Trump's." Speaking of which: Word on the street is that they're looking to replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth after his second Signal scandal. Here's hoping Trump's cabinet becomes slightly more diverse!

Over Easter weekend, I opened one of the bottles of wine my dad had brought to a family gathering. It was a sparkling white and I poured glasses for my sister and cousin. We all thought it was delicious and we thanked him for it. But then he started looking at us strangely and said: "Wait, did you say sparkling? I don't think I bought any sparkling wine." Turns out, it was a non-alcoholic bottle and none of us had even noticed! Which brings me to this column 0n peak booze by David Fickling: "Without noticing it, humanity has passed a remarkable milestone: Alcohol consumption has gone into possibly permanent decline." He says it's "a sign of how other long-standing practices — from smoking and sexual promiscuity to eating red meat — might dwindle just as painlessly."

Further Reading

European countries should turn up the heat in Ukraine. — Bloomberg's editorial board

JD Vance will have to mind his manners in India. — Karishma Vaswani

The "Golden Age" of US manufacturing is MIA. — Jonathan Levin and Thomas Black

America's China policy is dangerous and self-defeating. — Clive Crook 

In less than 100 days, the US went from benevolence to negligence. — Andreas Kluth

States should take the lead on voter verification. — John H. Merrill and Trey Grayson

Surging bank trading revenue has a dark side. — Aaron Brown

The college talk that parents should be having with their kids. — Erin Lowry

Trump's trade war could undermine next year's World Cup. — Adam Minter

We protect ancient monuments with laws. Why can't we protect trees the same way? — Lara Williams

ICYMI

Russell Vought is the real mastermind of MAGA.

The tariff stock rout is a boon for billionaires.

Bob Menendez's wife was found guilty of bribery.

Kickers

Apartment hunt with Timothée Chalamet's mom.

Ralph Lauren introduces the Big Pants Index.

Thanking ChatGPT is very expensive.

Racing to turn brainwaves into speech.

The Hillstoning of New York.

Notes: Please send smoke signals and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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[1] Why am I mildly obsessed with the history of popes? Well, my great uncle Father Ed, or "FRED," as some called him, was a monsignor, which meant having Mass on the back porch of my grandparent's house during family reunions. Although my Bible thumping now mainly consists of murdering flies in hotel rooms, religion is a fascinating subject, as Mike White can attest. I just have so many questions: Like, why did Pope Leo X have a pet elephant named Hanno? When did they decide to use socks, of all garments, to signal the papal hierarchy? And how come the dismembered, mummified head of Saint Catherine is just chilling in a church in Siena? I've seen it up close, and trust me, she doesn't look a day over 25. 25,000 years, that is.

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