Monday, April 21, 2025

The world is dumping dollars

And gold rules the day
 
   
     
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Monday, April 21st
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Maybe the moon is beautiful only because it is far.” 

- Mahmoud Darwish
Hope everyone had a good Easter! 

A lot of happenings going on in the currency and bond markets today. First off, China has made it clear that they expect other countries to shun the U.S.

 
 
The question is: 

What countermeasures is China capable of making? Unlike the U.S, China isn’t as central to global currency plumbing. They don’t control swap lines, petrol isn’t settling in Yuan, etc. I suppose they could cut exports, thus strangling external commerce. But China simply doesn’t have the same level of coercive economic firepower as the United States. 

Meanwhile, the Dollar has fallen below $100 for the first time since 2022. 

 
 
At the same time, bonds are selling off, which is not supposed to happen. The question is, “Why is this correlation breaking?” Let’s focus on both sides of the equation individually. It seems that one likely explanation for the dollar sell-off is that countries are being forced to liquidate USD in order to settle their home-currency basis trades. 

The reason that bonds are selling off at the same time might be a little trickier. It could be a global repricing of the USD as safe haven asset. If bond holders view the U.S. as riskier to invest in than before, they may demand higher premium for bonds. 

But my question to this is always: 

“Where else will you go?” 

China? They’ll steal everything you have. 

Europe? They don’t have industry or a military 
Emerging markets? If you think the U.S. is an unstable place to invest, wait till you go somewhere without the rule of law. 

The bond market is opaque, and for us standing watching outside, it’s important to understand that we may not be able to know what’s going on in the backrooms, but we can at least think through the possibilities. 

Meanwhile, gold is surging. And I mean surging. It’s right now trading at $3,413. 

Trump made an interesting tweet yesterday:

 
 
We know that China has been purchasing a TON of gold. We also know that U.S. banks have been importing truckloads of bullion over the past year. And we know that the U.S. owns by far the most gold tonnage in the world — 8,133 tonnes. 

Are both the U.S. and China getting ready for an asset repricing? Could the U.S. be going back to the gold standard? Interesting to think about. 
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Testimonial of the day
 
 
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To Better Trading,

Alex Reid
Wealthpin
 
WealthPin
   
     
   
 

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