Friday, April 11, 2025

The return of nuclear talks

US and Iranian officials are set to revive talks on Tehran's nuclear program.
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Tension over Iran's nuclear program has defined Tehran's relationship with the West for more than 20 years. It's an evergreen geopolitical headache that's been stalking Middle East security for pretty much the entirety of the post-9/11 age.

Even when the world's most powerful countries manage to find a diplomatic solution, it takes just a change in government for one of them to unravel it all.

So when the Trump administration and Iran finally meet for the first time tomorrow to discuss Tehran's atomic activity, they will have a huge amount of ground to cover.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will lead the Iranian team and his counterpart will be President Donald Trump's Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff. The list of challenges feels insurmountable — they can't even agree on whether they'll engage directly or through a mediator.

There's also a great deal of distrust to be reckoned with.

Iran says Trump's first-term decision to unilaterally abandon the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers was hugely damaging to its economy. It triggered a security crisis in the Persian Gulf that included a Trump-ordered strike killing Iran's most important general and nearly brought the two countries into direct conflict.

Equally, Trump is surrounded by hawkish politicians who want to see the Islamic Republic stripped of any military or nuclear capability that could pose a challenge to Washington's political dominance in the Middle East or to Israel's regional reach.

It's unlikely therefore that the talks will wield any sort of dramatic diplomatic breakthrough — no matter how heavily it's spun in the Oval Office.

But considering how much is at stake for both Iran's economy — not to mention its increasingly unpopular clerical rulers — and for the US's tariff-battered reputation, it just might be the start of what Trump would doubtless call something beautiful. Golnar Motevalli

WATCH: Bloomberg TV's Joumanna Bercetche explains what's at stake in the US-Iran talks.

Global Must Reads

China announced it will raise tariffs from tomorrow on all US goods to 125%, and said it plans to ignore any further increases announced by the US, after the White House clarified that levies on Chinese goods have risen to 145%. Officials in Beijing are meanwhile signaling they may target US services exports as payback for Trump's record tariffs, putting at risk a lesser-known but sizable part of their trade relationship which has long been a bright spot for American companies.

With Trump unleashing an all-out assault on global trade, the status of US Treasury bonds as a safe haven for investors during times of crisis is increasingly coming into question, while some analysts suggested China may have helped fuel the biggest surge in 30-year yields since the pandemic. The dollar emerged as the latest victim of market turmoil as the spiraling tensions with China and uncertainty over the 90-day tariff pause on dozens of other nations risk derailing US economic growth.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is among top European Union officials planning to travel to Beijing in late July for a summit with President Xi Jinping, the South China Morning Post reported. After talks with Xi today in the Chinese capital, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez repeated calls for the EU to deepen ties with China, brushing aside US warnings that it would be detrimental to do so.

Sanchez with Xi in Beijing today. Photographer: Andres Martinez Casares/AFP/Getty Images

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has vaulted to the front of the line in the US president's list of advisers in recent days, as the historic market selloff puts pressure on Trump to step back from his maximalist position on trade levies. The former hedge fund manager wasn't directly involved in setting the tariffs, but he's now in charge of negotiations to avert their implementation.

The UK, Germany and Norway will help fund the delivery of hundreds of thousands of drones to Ukraine, as European allies seek to bolster the war-torn nation's position against Russia amid faltering progress toward a ceasefire. With Trump envoy Witkoff arriving today in Russia, the UK and France said they'll accelerate military planning of the "coalition of the willing" over the next two weeks to focus on ensuring Ukraine's air, sea and land security.

The US will bolster the Philippines' arsenal and step up joint military exercises, as tensions between Washington and Beijing escalate, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro told us.

Support for South Korea's presidential-race frontrunner Lee Jae-myung rose to a three-month high, a sign his opposition Democratic Party could grab power in nationwide polls on June 3.

A senior leader of Malaysia's biggest opposition party said he was under state surveillance and his phone was tapped, a claim the government downplayed as standard practice for security reasons.

Prime Minister Mark Carney promised tougher policies to curb illegal guns and drugs flowing into Canada from the US, including more police at the border, as he courts votes ahead of an April 28 election.

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Chart of the Day

European Central Bank officials are likely to trim borrowing costs twice more, though they will ultimately take their cue from Trump, according to our latest survey of economists. Respondents expect consecutive quarter-point reductions in April and June, before the deposit rate then remains at 2% at least through the end of next year.

And Finally

Italy is building a high-speed rail line linking Naples and Bari that will cut more than an hour off the travel time between the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian coasts. State rail firm Ferrovie Dello Stato is using part of €25 billion ($27.6 billion) in loans and grants from the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, a more than €700 billion instrument to fund projects to drive post-pandemic growth. It's a rare high point for the EU's joint financing mechanisms — and for Italy, which has historically struggled to source and spend money from the bloc due to tangled bureaucracy.

A ceremony for the final breakthrough in the Telese Tunnel, part of the Naples-Bari high-speed railway, in Telese Terme on Wednesday. Photographer: Stephanie Gengotti/Bloomberg

Pop quiz (no cheating!). Which Central American country's travel-safety designation did the US elevate to the highest possible level, putting it above countries like France, the UK and Italy ahead of a visit by its president to the White House next week? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net

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