Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Markets Daily Special: Trump’s tariff pause sends stocks soaring

Traders react to another volatile day
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Markets Snapshot
S&P 500 INDEX 5,444.84 +9.27%
US Treasury 10 Year Note ETF 43.4 -0.50%
NASDAQ Composite Index 17,124.97 +12.16%
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 103.02 +0.06%
XBTUSD Spot Exchange Rate - Price of 1 XBT in USD 82,288.5 +6.79%
Market data as of 04:04 pm EST. View or Create your Watchlist
Market data may be delayed depending on provider agreements.

Trump card

US trading ended Wednesday with the biggest surge in stocks since 2020 after President Donald Trump said he'd pause tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days. 

Asked the reason for the reprieve, Trump said that people were "getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid". The president has been under intense pressure from business leaders and investors to reverse course.

The rally sent the S&P 500 soaring more than 9%. It was an abrupt reversal from the gauge's previous teetering on the brink of a 20% bear-market plunge. The index is still down more then 7% year to date and closed lower than on Apr. 2, which Trump had dubbed "Liberation Day" to reflect the date at which tariffs went into effect.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 logged its biggest gain since October 2008. Goldman Sachs's basket of the most-shorted stocks jumped 12.5%. Economists at Goldman rescinded their forecast for a US recession after Trump announced the pause. 

The pause came about 13 hours after higher duties on 56 nations and the European Union took effect. It wasn't immediately clear which nations would receive relief, and even those that qualify will remain taxed at the 10% baseline rate that went into effect on Saturday.

Duties on China will still be lifted further, to 125%. "China wants to make a deal," Trump said.

China remaining in the cross-hairs meant concern still abounded on trading floors. "We still have to understand what the new world order looks like," said Kim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners. Volatility is "the name of the game for the next little while, until negotiations are done. And they're never going to be done," Forrest said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared the turnabout a victory for Trump, telling reporters the president "created maximum negotiating leverage for himself" in talks with other nations. 

"It feels like his advisers have talked him off the cliff," said Laura Lau, senior vice-president and chief investment officer at Brompton Corp.

Bonds eased an earlier selloff but remained down across maturities for a third day. Trump was looking at the bond market as he made his decision, he told reporters. 

Hours earlier, a dramatic selloff of sovereign debt had ignited speculation among strategists that the Federal Reserve might eventually need to step in to help.

"The bond market is very tricky," the president said. "I was watching it. But if you look at it now, it's beautiful — the bond market right now. But I saw last night where people were getting a little queasy."

Bitcoin jumped almost 8% to as much as $82,967.49 after beginning Wednesday in the red. Measures of fear in the US corporate bond market showed worry declining the most since 2020.

Earlier on Wednesday, shortly after markets opened for trading, Trump urged Americans to stay calm and continue investing. He posted on social media that "this is a great time to buy!!!"

On that, he was proved right.

Follow our live blog for the latest

On the move

  • Winners: The Magnificent Seven index led the market lower through the tariff introduction and were the major beneficiaries in the rally. Tesla (22.6%), Nvidia (18.7%), Apple (15.3%), Meta Platforms (14.8%), Amazon (12.0%), Microsoft (10.1%), Alphabet (9.6%)
  • Losers: China-related stocks did not get the same lift compared to the broader market due to the elevated China specific tariff. Weibo (-2.3%), Sohu.com (-9.7%)
  • Consumer related sectors were also heavily supported as the softer tone on tariffs may help inflationary concerns. Expedia (18.3%), Carnival (17.5%)
  • US banks also took the news well ahead of the sectors first quarter earnings beginning on Friday. Morgan Stanley (11.4%), Goldman Sachs (11.8%) and Citigroup (9.2%)
The Stock Movers Podcast: Five minutes on the day's stock market winners and losers. Click here to listen on apple podcasts

What Wall Street's saying…

Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert: "I am not ready to say this is the bottom, but this is a sign that he is ready to make a deal. There has been a lot of damage done already to market structure and investor sentiment, we will need to work that out."

Cayla Seder at State Street Global Markets: "Well, first, wow. This is certainly a signal of welcomed reprieve, but I don't believe this is a buy everything rally, sticking to high quality parts of the market to ride out continued uncertainty is reasonable here."

Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth: "The market cares because 90 days gives you much more significant time to negotiate — that's all the market wants."

Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, who has worked on the NYSE floor for 35 years: "This was total shock and awe." 

Ellen Hazen at F.L. Putnam Investment Management: "I haven't seen volatility like this in a long time. The moves we're seeing in some stocks are just unbelievable. What this says is that the market was showing oversold conditions. And so any hint of good news was going send the market up."

Peter Bookvar of Bleakley Financial Group: "Respite? Further economic suicide? It will all depend on where you source product from of course and unfortunately about $450b is still being imported from China."

Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management: "To the extent that some (or all) of that can be rolled back then the market will price in less of a disaster scenario. It is very difficult to trade this market because the news changes on a dime, so it's best to have a longer-term investment plan in place and take advantage of quality companies trading at a discount, when the opportunity arises."

Zaheer Ebtikar, founder of crypto fund Split Capital: "Crazy! The administration every single day for the past two weeks has been adamant about the tariffs. But now the president changing his stance on tariffs so quickly shows that there's definitely flexibility. The market will adapt to the new environment."

Sean Simko, global head of fixed-income portfolio management at SEI Investments: "This bought the Fed more time to monitor inflation. This is a glass half full move. Time will tell if it is a pause or if positive negotiations occurred, lowering the cost of doing global business."

What else we're reading

The Many Reasons US Bonds Are Falling Despite Haven Status
How Much Tariff Turmoil Until the Fed Intervenes? Five Market Crises Provide Clues
Private Credit Swoops In as Market Chaos Rattles Banks' Debt Deals
Wild Markets, Super Opportunity, Darwin Port Tension

Please share your thoughts on how we're doing and what we're missing. Contact us at marketsdaily@bloomberg.net.

Enjoying Markets Daily? You might also like:

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  • Supply Lines for daily insights into supply chains and global trade
  • Next China to stay informed on all things Trump tariffs and China
  • Points of Return for Bloomberg Opinion's John Authers' daily dive into markets

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