Wednesday, April 9, 2025

He tariffs, he tariffs not?

Trade war whiplash is melting my brain.
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Today's Agenda

Buy Now, Pray Later?

Oh, to be Matt Levine: He sent his newsletter at 1:17 p.m. ET — one minute prior to President Donald Trump's 90-day tariff pause announcement at 1:18 p.m. ET. Absolutely brutal timing! But c'est la vie, a trade war will do that. It's nearly impossible to write a coherent column in an environment where chart lines look crazier than that parental signature you tried (and failed) to forge in the 4th grade:

So much for that lousy market, Chris Hughes! Stocks staged a truly epic comeback this afternoon thanks to Trump's sudden change of heart. Here are two superlatives:

  • The NASDAQ's 12% rise is the biggest the index has seen since January 2001.
  • The S&P 500 gained back 71% of what it lost since "Liberation Day" on April 2.

It's hard to believe that just this morning, Jamie Dimon and many others on Wall Street were warning of a recession and the Bloomberg Editorial Board was mapping out a "bleak scenario" for the Federal Reserve. And now Goldman Sachs is like, it's a false alarm, guys, we're taking back our forecast!

It's madness, really, how everything can change with the press of one button on Truth Social. Believe it or not, Patricia Lopez says our best hope for quelling tariff insanity may be 91-year-old Senator Chuck Grassley: "Last week, he joined Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell of Washington to introduce the bipartisan Trade Review Act of 2025," she writes. "It would require the administration to notify Congress within 48 hours of altering existing tariffs or imposing new ones. Included would be an assessment of the impact on US businesses and consumers."

Judging by this chart from Jonathan Levin, an assessment like that would be welcome:

Inflation, as Jonathan reminds us, is a self-fulfilling prophecy: "When consumers expect persistently rising prices, they tend to bring forward demand and drive up actual prices. They may also demand higher wages, which their employers could pass through to customers."

Even without all the other tariffs, we'll still have a very messy trade war with China. John Authers notes that Trump's 104% levy on Chinese duties — now bumped to 125% — will be a doozy for the CPI: "You should add an extra two-thirds of a percentage point to your inflation forecast," he writes. That creates a credibility problem for Trump: "Inflation by its nature hurts the poorest the most. The people buying cheaper Chinese imports will disproportionately be his supporters."

On the bright side, at least people in Gary, Indiana can sleep soundly tonight knowing they still get to work from home on Fridays.

Bonus Tariff Reading:

  • Trump's tariffs will shift manufacturers from a "China plus one" to a "US plus one" strategy, putting higher-cost US-made goods at a disadvantage. — Shannon O'Neil
  • Trump's tariffs will affect everything from chips to data centers to the online ad market. — Dave Lee

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America Has Been Loomered

I've said this before and I'll say it again: On the list of Cool Stuff You Can Do While You're Alive, creating a word is pretty high up there. But having a verb named after you? That's even cooler:

  • Galvanize: To incite or shock someone into taking action, named after the frog-obsessed Italian physicist Luigi Galvani.
  • Fletcherize: To chew food into tiny particles, named after 19th-century dietician Horace Fletcher.
  • Mesmerize: To spellbind or capture someone's entire attention, named after German physician Franz Anton Mesmer, who, fun fact, was pals with Mozart!

Then again, maybe it's not always so cool? Like, if the action that stems from your name is bad, well, that's not a legacy you'd want to have:

  • Gerrymander: To slice and dice election districts in a way that gives one party an unfair advantage, named after controversial Vice President Elbridge Gerry, (the "mander" part comes from a mythical salamander).
  • Guillotine: To behead someone using a device with a heavy blade, named after French physician Joseph-Ignace Guillotin, who, contrary to what you may think was not a fan of the death penalty.

Which brings me to this neologism from Andreas Kluth's column today:

  • Loomered: Fired from your job at the behest of right-wing influencer Laura Loomer on suspicion of disloyalty to Trump and MAGA.

Curious to hear how it's used in a sentence? "If you're Loomered, you're in deep trouble. That's the end of your career in a sense," said President Donald Trump.

I wonder, will "Loomered" and "Loomering" end up in the Dictionary like those other verbs? It's possible, although her name won't be remembered kindly. "Having botched two runs for Congress, she's instead a failed politician better known for her sycophantism toward Trump," Andreas writes. "She had his ear again last week in a meeting in the Oval Office, where, like a Spanish Inquisitor of the TikTok age, she accused a raft of national-security experts of disloyalty toward Trump, prompting the president to have them fired."

 Photo by Anna Barclay/Getty Images

It's hard to overstate how strange it is that a so-called "investigative journalist" is directing the president to fire respected members of the NSA and US Cyber Command community. Under normal circumstances, you'd expect the national security adviser to intervene, but after the Signal group chat disaster, Andreas says Michael Walz himself is on the chopping block.

Loomer isn't the only chronically online Republican invading the White House's inner circle. "She represents a rising demographic of more-or-less loony right-wing influencers who are famous just for being famous — and for being able to get near the president," Andreas writes. For instance, Libs of TikTok creator Chaya Raichik dressed up — tactical vest, ICE badge and all! — for a ride-along with Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem yesterday:

I didn't know we had a Bring Your Favorite Influencer to the ICE Raid Day!

Telltale Charts

"Last week's employment report offered what may be the last clear picture of the US job market before President Donald Trump's tariff shock. Overall, it looked pretty healthy, with a 4.2% unemployment rate, 80.4% of the prime-age population employed and 1.9 million nonfarm payroll jobs added over the past 12 months," writes Justin Fox. At the top of the chart, you'll notice a LOT of jobs in health care. He points to the uptick in the 65-and-older population — from 31 million in 1990 to 59 million as of 2023 — as a big driver.

"Female founders have been in the headlines lately — though perhaps not in the way they'd prefer," says Beth Kowitt. Startup founder Charlie Javice could get 30 years in prison after being found guilty of fraud for misleading JPMorgan. And Christine Hunsicker — CEO of fashion tech startup CaaStle — has stepped down after alleged financial misconduct. What in the Elizabeth Holmes is going on? "Female entrepreneurs get outsized attention on the way up as well as on the way down," she writes. These public episodes make it that much harder for women to be credible in the corporate world.

Join Us for a Conversation on China

President Trump is raising tariffs on Xi again, blaming "the lack of respect that China has shown to the World's Markets." The question is: Who will blink first in the trade war? Join Bloomberg Opinion's Ruth Pollard along with columnists Shuli Ren, Karishma Vaswani and Catherine Thorbecke for a Live Q&A on Bloomberg's website.

Further Reading

As Taiwan's leader, I believe we can strengthen trade with the US. — Lai Ching-te

No matter what the White House says, all those Supreme Court rulings aren't "wins." — Stephen L. Carter

US consumers are now blocked off from some of China's most fashionable brands. — Shuli Ren

US government debt is the world's benchmark for a reason — and that hasn't changed. — Marcus Ashworth

ICYMI

What rights do immigrants have?

Trump hates a low-pressure shower.

Hobby Lobby is getting crafting in NYC.

Zillow is about to lose a lot of listings.

Kickers

Thank God for Lorde.

Meet me at the Twilight concert.

Chips are getting meatier.

Vibestaurants can disappoint.

Fortnite accents are tough to lose.

Notes: Please send Cheeseburger Doritos and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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