Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Exploiting chaos in Myanmar

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Myanmar had hardly begun retrieving the bodies following its biggest earthquake in a century when grounds near the epicenter shook once more, this time from a bombing run.

The junta scrambled its jets on Friday and struck against enemy strongholds in territories it had lost over years of savage civil conflict that followed a violent military coup in 2021.

Later that evening, Myanmar's broadcaster aired footage of junta chief Min Aung Hlaing's phone call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, giving the military leader a much-needed air of legitimacy at a time Western nations are largely shunning the regime.

The 7.7 magnitude quake that shook buildings and triggered evacuations as far as Vietnam and Thailand is compounding a humanitarian crisis years in the making. More than 3 million people have been displaced in fighting since a coup that also sent Myanmar's fragile economy into a tailspin.

The official death toll from the temblor has surpassed 2,000, with widespread destruction in Mandalay, the Southeast Asian country's second-largest city. Modeling from the US Geological Survey shows the estimated economic toll could exceed the nation's GDP. All signs point to many more fatalities as rescue workers sift through the remains of hundreds of fallen structures.

Amid the chaos, observers are worried the junta that has been losing swathes of territory to ethnic armed groups may continue a push to reverse its fortunes on the battlefield.

There are also concerns that international aid may not get to where it's needed, as was the case when a previous junta oversaw Myanmar's humanitarian efforts in the aftermath of Cyclone Nargis in 2008, which killed more than 100,000 people.

Between enduring conflicts and now a deadly earthquake, the suffering of Myanmar's 50 million people is far from over. — Philip Heijmans

Rescue teams work to evacuate residents in Mandalay, Myanmar, yesterday.  Photographer: Sai Aung Main/AFP/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

China held military exercises around Taiwan involving the most naval vessels in almost a year. The Defense Ministry in Taipei said it detected 19 Chinese ships and monitored the movements of the Shandong aircraft carrier in recent days. The latest drills appear to test the Trump administration's unfolding foreign policy in East Asia, which is focusing on countering Beijing's ambitions in the region.

China's Shandong aircraft carrier as seen from a Taiwanese military vessel yesterday. Source: Taiwan Defense Ministry

Marine Le Pen's ban from running in the 2027 French presidential race risks provoking a surge in anti-establishment sentiment that could undermine efforts to stabilize the nation's public finances. The court decision, which Le Pen and her allies have said is politically motivated, makes a parliamentary no-confidence motion more likely and potentially hands control of her National Rally party to her protégé, Jordan Bardella, a largely untested 29-year-old.

US President Donald Trump dialed back his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin and accused Ukraine of attempting to renegotiate an economic deal with the US. The result is a geopolitical whiplash on the eve of a global tariff announcement tomorrow (see Chart of the Day) and shows White House impatience with the process of securing a temporary truce more than three years after Russia's invasion of its western neighbor. Ukraine's top diplomat said officials are pressing ahead with the US toward an "acceptable" economic agreement.

Trump claimed days of US strikes have "decimated" Houthi rebels whose attacks have disrupted commercial traffic in the Red Sea but gave no details about the campaign, raising fresh questions about its effectiveness. Trump reiterated a warning to the Houthis to cease attacks on shipping, threatening severe consequences for the group and its backers in Tehran.

A US warship carries out precision airstrikes against Houthi targets across Yemen last month. Source: US Central Command

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu withdrew his nomination of ex-admiral Eli Sharvit as director of the Shin Bet security service, 24 hours after it was announced, after some members of his religious-rightist coalition voiced misgivings about the nomination. Netanyahu will consider other candidates to replace Ronen Bar, whose firing last month is due to take effect pending a court review, his office said today.

The UK government will pass legislation compelling as many as 1,000 companies providing IT services to critical national infrastructure to improve their cyber defenses after a wave of attacks by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Hungarian stocks and bonds slid after the government expanded interventions in the economy and markets in a bid to revive growth and curb inflation ahead of next year's election.

South Korea is poised to rule on the political fate of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, deciding whether to permanently remove him from office for his short-lived martial-law decree or reinstate him. 

Elon Musk is seeking a repeat of the political victory he scored with Trump by deploying millions of dollars into what has become the most expensive judicial race in US history — an open seat on Wisconsin's Supreme Court.

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Chart of the Day

Trump will announce a reciprocal tariff push tomorrow featuring "country-based" duties, according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who declined to provide details when asked about the size of the levies and which nations would be hit. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced support measures to help businesses cope and Vietnam said it slashed import levies on a range of products. The European Union said it will use a broad range of options to retaliate if Trump follows through on his threats.

And Finally

Poverty in Argentina dropped sharply as the disinflationary effects of President Javier Milei's shock austerity program took root. About 38% of Argentines were below the poverty line in the second half of last year, according to government data, down from the more than two-decade high of 53% between January and June last year. 

A homeless man prepares a meal in Buenos Aires in September 2022. Photographer: Luis Robayo/AFP/Getty Images

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