Friday, April 11, 2025

ETF IQ: SPY got stressed out

Let's unpack what happened
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Bloomberg
by Katie Greifeld

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Welcome to ETF IQ, a weekly newsletter dedicated to the $14 trillion global ETF industry. I'm Bloomberg News reporter and anchor Katie Greifeld.

Crash-Up

Something amazing happened this week: even SPY got stressed out

Rewind to Wednesday, just before 1:20 p.m. New York time, when President Donald Trump posted on social media that the US would issue a 90-day pause on tariffs on certain trading partners. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust surged 10.5% in response as traders desperately plowed in, outpacing the actual S&P 500's gain of 9.5%. 

The end result? SPY closed at a 90 basis point premium to its net-asset value on Wednesday. That's the biggest dislocation in the fund since the 2008 financial crisis.

The episode speaks to how systemically important SPY has become to financial markets. As a source quipped to me this week, SPY is the liquidity vehicle of last resort — even if every other cash market seizes up, barring the heat death of the universe, SPY will still trade. A quick autopsy suggests that's what happened: Goldman Sachs's prime desk said that top-of-book liquidity on S&P 500 futures was near all-time-lows heading into the crash-up.

Amid the melee, traders bee-lined to SPY. On Wednesday, losing-auction volumes were running roughly 300% higher than usual and likely a factor in driving up the premium, according to Matt Bartolini, head of SPDR Americas Research at State Street Global Advisors.

"That's just a function of the ETF, of SPY — it's a significant liquidity vehicle for a large swath of traders and investors to rotate into," Bartolini told Bloomberg's Vildana Hajric.

"Given the sizable moves that we saw yesterday intraday, but also heading into the close, there was just a large balance of buy orders coming in to mark the close that then pushed the price up above," he said, referring to the price action on Wednesday. 

Still, to see SPY unmoor from its NAV in such a dramatic fashion underscores just how volatile worldwide markets are. There's plenty of superlatives to point to, from the VIX to Treasury yields to credit spreads. But SPY alone tells the story quite neatly. 

Blame Game

Beyond the fact that rewiring the global trade landscape in short order creates massive uncertainty, there's a number of boogeyman to blame for why trading has felt so frantic this week. Bill Ackman is taking aim at two in particular: highly-leveraged ETFs and zero-day stock contracts.

"How have 3X leveraged ETFs and Zero-Days-to-Expiration (0DTE) options advanced society or contributed to our economy?" the billionaire investor and founder of Pershing Square Capital Management posted on X on Friday. In an earlier post, Ackman wrote that levered-up players being "forced out of positions" were more likely driving the dramatic market moves than fundamentals. 

Bill Ackman, chief executive officer of Pershing Square Capital Management Photographer: Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg

It's a great argument to make because, who can really say for certain that it's wrong? It's similar to the speculation that unwinding basis trades are behind the blow-up in long-dated Treasury yields. There's no one explanation for why such enormous markets are behaving the way they are, and it's plausible that leveraged ETFs are contributing to the chaos. It's anyone's guess.

In any case, leveraged ETFs seem to grow more popular by the day. The category now commands around $100 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ackman isn't alone in criticizing the high-octane funds, which can magnify gains but also deliver punishing losses. 

Others argue that it's an investor's right to risk their own money. 

"As a libertarian, I'd hate to see regulators try to 'protect' investors from themselves, by tightening the screws on these powerful tools. They're wonderful for those who want to make big short-term bets," Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates recently told Bloomberg. "Not so great for the buy-and-hold investor. And not bad for the short-and-hold investor."

In Other News

Signs of worry are emerged in the market for collateralized loan obligations as tariff-fueled volatility sweeps across asset classes.

Tariff-induced convulsions sweeping financial assets are spurring a record rally in Black Swan ETFs.

Strive Asset Management, known for its anti-ESG efforts, will keep pushing companies to cut links between executive pay and diversity or sustainability goals.

Drill Down

In this week's Drill Down on Bloomberg Television's ETF IQ, Rob Forsyth of Lazard Asset Management stopped by to discuss the firm's three debut products: the Lazard Equity Megatrends ETF (ticker: THMZ), Lazard Next Gen Technologies ETF (ticker: TEKY) and Lazard Japanese Equity ETF (ticker: JPY).

Needless to say, it's a tough time to launch any new ETF, let alone thematic funds. But Forsyth said that delaying didn't really cross their mind:

It's unlike an IPO. There was no real hesitancy in launching these products today. We kind of wanted to press forward, provide our investors and our clients with really specialized, focused investment capabilities, combined with the benefits that the ETF vehicle has to offer… moving on and upward. 

All three funds are actively managed and charge between 50 and 60 basis points. 

Next Week on ETF IQ

BlackRock's Robert Hum, AQR's Daniel Villalon and Rebecca Venter of Vanguard join us on Bloomberg Television's ETF IQ. We're live on Mondays at noon. Watch on Bloomberg Television's ETF IQ, on the Bloomberg Terminal at TV <GO> and on YouTube.

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