Sunday, April 6, 2025

Australia wakes up to more market pain

Good morning and welcome back from the weekend, it's Ainsley here to guide you through what will be another bruising day in the markets. Tak
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Good morning and welcome back from the weekend, it's Ainsley here to guide you through what will be another bruising day in the markets. Take a deep breath...

Today's must-reads:
• Trump team digs in on tariffs
• Prime Minister extends lead in polls
• Albanese's plan to reduce power bills

What's happening now

US equity futures plunged, extending a slide that wiped out nearly $6 trillion from the S&P 500 Index in two days, as the Trump administration dug in on a trade war economists warn could tip the world's largest economy into recession. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index plunged 4.6% at 6:02 p.m. in New York, after the underlying index sank 10% in two days. And shell-shocked investors are piling into US Treasuries on concern that Trump's trade war will trigger a worldwide recession.

At home, the Australian dollar is looking to recover from its worst drop since 2008, when the collapse of Lehman Brothers set off a global credit crunch. In stocks, The S&P/ASX 200 Index futures fell 4.3%, futures relative to fair value suggest early loss of 4%. 

And it looks like this all means that Aussie and kiwi stocks and currencies will be under pressure until someone offers an olive branch of some kind, according to my colleague, market strategist Mike "Willo" Wilson in Sydney bureau (more from him later on).

To catch you up, the market crash Trump stoked last week was one for the history books. The Nasdaq 100 plunged into a bear market. Commodities collapsed, and corporate-bond investors frantically bought insurance contracts that shield them from default.

Don't forget about your superannuation. Jonathan Levin writes for Bloomberg Opinion that the tariffs are already coming at the expense of retirees. First and foremost, that's because Trump's grand experiment is precipitating the swift collapse of the S&P 500, the underpinning of tens of millions of retirement savings accounts.

And there's an election happening too... Support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's Labor government has risen to its highest point in 11 months ahead of a vote on May 3. The center-left Labor Party saw its vote rise to 52% on a two-party preferred basis in a Newspoll survey released by The Australian newspaper on Sunday, up a point from last week and its strongest result since May 2024. Support for the opposition Liberal-National Coalition fell one point to 48%.

Over the weekend,  Albanese pledged to slash household energy bills with a A$2.3 billion plan to lower the price of home batteries. Households, small businesses and community facilities will be eligible for a 30% discount on installed battery costs, saving about A$4,000 on a typical system.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said the Liberal-National coalition will reduce the allocation of international students if it wins office next month, saying the move would ease pressure on the nation's overstretched housing market.

Australia plans to wrest control of a Chinese-owned port in the country's north after the election next month as concerns grow over a more assertive Chinese military presence. Dutton will take immediate action to bring the Port of Darwin under Australian control or into a model that will give greater assurance about the operator within six months if elected, while Albanese late Friday made a similar commitment.

What happened overnight

Here some more from Willo on what to look out for this week. A 25 basis point  interest rate cut from the RBNZ on Wednesday is seen as a done deal by economists. And a speech Thursday by RBA Governor Michele Bullock will be keenly watched to see if all this tariff drama has softened her posture toward easing.

There's a good chance that markets will see more turbulence ahead similar to what happened on Thursday and Friday, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers wrote in a post on X Sunday. "A drop of this magnitude signals that there's likely to be trouble ahead, and people ought to just be very cautious,'' said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg TV. 

Apple, following assurances from the Trump administration, is keeping TikTok and other apps from ByteDance on its US App Store for at least another 75 days. Apple received a letter from Attorney General Pam Bondi telling the company it should follow Trump's executive order that will extend the pause on a TikTok ban in the US, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Floridians are accustomed to waiting for fast-moving thunderstorms to pass. Trump's supporters in Palm Beach are trying to decide whether the tempest over his tariffs is simply another squall. At a party at the Palm Beach home of billionaire John Paulson on Saturday night, some guests were confident that Trump's plans would pan out, while others expressed more concern, according to two people in attendance who asked for anonymity to describe private conversations.

Over the weekend, life in Palm Beach looked much as it routinely has since President Donald Trump's rise to political prominence. Photographer: Saul Martinez/Bloomberg

What to watch

All times Sydney
• 11:30 a.m.:  Australia March ANZ-Indeed Job Advertisements
• 4:30 p.m.:  Australia March Foreign Reserves

One more thing...

The American investor class — that top 10% that owns almost all of the stocks — is quickly coming to terms with its new, much-diminished status in the era of Donald Trump's trade offensive. From the corporate executives counting their stock options to the billionaire hedge-fund moguls and everyone in between, they're merely collateral damage now. Read more in our Big Take on Trump's "chart of death."

President Donald Trump holds a tariffs poster during a tariff announcement in the Rose Garden of the White House on April 2. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg
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