Will the Mag 7 Decide the Market’s Next Big Move?

Will the Mag 7 Decide the Market’s Next Big Move? Let’s be honest — the market feels like it’s standing at a crossroads right now.  On one hand, the S&P 500 is holding support at the 50-day moving average and showing signs of a possible rebound.  On the other hand, the Nasdaq is slipping below key levels and looks like it could tumble fast. So which way do we go? Here’s what I think: it’s going to come down to the Mag 7. If you're not familiar, the “Mag 7” refers to the seven mega-cap tech stocks that have driven most of the market’s gains over the few years — think Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL). These giants hold a ton of weight in the major indexes, and if they’re not participating in the upside, it’s tough for the broader market to get going. We’ve seen rotation into other areas — Energy (XLE), Utilities (XLU), and Financials (XLF) have all shown some strength lately — but that won’t be enough on its own. If the Mag 7 bounce, we could see a sharp rally into Q2.  But if they break down further, we’re probably staring at a deeper correction. It’s not about tech needing to go parabolic — we just need them to hold their ground and stop dragging. If we can get a weekly close above $48 on the MAG7 ETF (MAG), that could signal the kind of strength needed to get a real rebound going. I’ve explained a few times while I am cautiously optimistic for Q2 at this moment… For one, most very quick corrections actually act as “flushes” and then get bullish again pretty darn quick: In fact, every other drop this fast has been bullish immediately after. And these quicker cycles have been more common lately, just like the flush we got in August of 2024 which ended up being a very bullish year. The other thing that makes me optimistic is, frankly, that so much of the retail world is getting scared. When that happens, it usually means a flip is close. We saw retail bearishness hit peak levels in 2010 and 2020 if that tells you anything (though I do like to see more insider buying on the other side of that than we’re seeing now). And, on top of that, this mid March bottom would make sense for seasonal bottoms over the last 20 years… So, for all those reasons and a few others, I am starting to think Q2 could be really bullish. But none of it matters unless the Mag7 do their part. So watch them closely. One More Thing… The Weekend Strategy That Shouldn’t Work (But Does) Now, while the market chops back and forth, I’ve been testing something that honestly surprised me — a weekend-only trade on SPY. The idea was to find high-probability setups using options that expire Monday. And despite the usual thinking that weekend trades are “too risky,” the data told a different story. Turns out, a lot of the big, scary Monday losses that make weekend trades seem risky are just statistical outliers. When you factor in how many of these trades actually hit their profit target before the weekend even starts, the win rate jumped as high as 90%. It’s one of those rare setups where market fear creates an opportunity — and I’ll be sharing more about it live this weekend. Watch the replay HERE before the video gets pulled down! Oh, and one more thing. We’re doing Mapping the Market today at 1:30 pm ET. We’ll break down the bullish market we’re seeing today and a whole lot more. See you at 1:30 pm ET! — Nate Tucci

Will the Mag 7 Decide the Market’s Next Big Move? Let’s be honest — the market feels like it’s standing at a crossroads right now.  On one hand, the S&P 500 is holding support at the 50-day moving average and showing signs of a possible rebound.  On the other hand, the Nasdaq is slipping below key levels and looks like it could tumble fast. So which way do we go? Here’s what I think: it’s going to come down to the Mag 7. If you're not familiar, the “Mag 7” refers to the seven mega-cap tech stocks that have driven most of the market’s gains over the few years — think Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOGL). These giants hold a ton of weight in the major indexes, and if they’re not participating in the upside, it’s tough for the broader market to get going. We’ve seen rotation into other areas — Energy (XLE), Utilities (XLU), and Financials (XLF) have all shown some strength lately — but that won’t be enough on its own. If the Mag 7 bounce, we could see a sharp rally into Q2.  But if they break down further, we’re probably staring at a deeper correction. It’s not about tech needing to go parabolic — we just need them to hold their ground and stop dragging. If we can get a weekly close above $48 on the MAG7 ETF (MAG), that could signal the kind of strength needed to get a real rebound going. I’ve explained a few times while I am cautiously optimistic for Q2 at this moment… For one, most very quick corrections actually act as “flushes” and then get bullish again pretty darn quick: In fact, every other drop this fast has been bullish immediately after.   And these quicker cycles have been more common lately, just like the flush we got in August of 2024 which ended up being a very bullish year. The other thing that makes me optimistic is, frankly, that so much of the retail world is getting scared. When that happens, it usually means a flip is close. We saw retail bearishness hit peak levels in 2010 and 2020 if that tells you anything (though I do like to see more insider buying on the other side of that than we’re seeing now).   And, on top of that, this mid March bottom would make sense for seasonal bottoms over the last 20 years… So, for all those reasons and a few others, I am starting to think Q2 could be really bullish. But none of it matters unless the Mag7 do their part. So watch them closely. One More Thing… The Weekend Strategy That Shouldn’t Work (But Does) Now, while the market chops back and forth, I’ve been testing something that honestly surprised me — a weekend-only trade on SPY. The idea was to find high-probability setups using options that expire Monday. And despite the usual thinking that weekend trades are “too risky,” the data told a different story. Turns out, a lot of the big, scary Monday losses that make weekend trades seem risky are just statistical outliers. When you factor in how many of these trades actually hit their profit target before the weekend even starts, the win rate jumped as high as 90%. It’s one of those rare setups where market fear creates an opportunity — and I’ll be sharing more about it live this weekend. Watch the replay HERE before the video gets pulled down! Oh, and one more thing. We’re doing Mapping the Market today at 1:30 pm ET. We’ll break down the bullish market we’re seeing today and a whole lot more. See you at 1:30 pm ET! — Nate Tucci

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to reunisoft.cryptonews@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub

ABOUT US:  We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. Jeffry Turnmire Trading provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from Jeffry Turnmire Trading are for your informational purposes only. Neither Jeffry Turnmire Trading nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Jeffry Turnmire Trading is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions.  Please visit https://prosperitypub.com/terms-conditions/ for our full Terms and Conditions. Unsubscribe This email was sent to reunisoft.cryptonews@blogger.com by Prosperity Pub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponte Vedra, Florida 32081, United States Prosperity Pub