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The much-hyped Trump crypto summit turned out to be a textbook PR exercise — big on optics, light on substance. While some viewed the event as a watershed moment, the reality is that we're still very much in wait-and-see mode. Yes, it represents a break from the past administration's overt hostility to crypto, but we knew that already. |
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Data availability usage: |
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Celestia's share of data availability posted continues to dwarf data posted on Ethereum blobs. In the month of February alone, 697.4k GB of data was posted on Celestia, compared to 66.2k GB on Ethereum blobs. The majority of Celestia data was used by the Eclipse L2 (578 GB), followed by cli (103 GB) and B3 (4.8 GB). |
— Donovan Choy |
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News, sold |
The US government is not buying your bags — nor should it — but it's also not buying someone else's bags — maybe a positive outcome? Net net, as Impossible Cloud Network co-founder Kai Warwzinek bluntly put it: "While promising great change for crypto, the US president delivered almost nothing." |
The market got the message, and prices fell sharply in response. Avi Feldman and Jonah Van Bourg from the 1000x podcast were flipping bearish in real time, describing the session as an opportunity for "obsequious fawning" where attendees took turns "kissing the ring" of President Trump. |
For those hoping that crypto's political status in the US has fundamentally changed for the long term, the partisan nature of the embrace should be a red flag. There may be tangible progress stemming from Trump's rhetorical shift, including an apparent end to Chokepoint 2.0, a friendlier stance toward stablecoins, a vague nod to crypto at the Small Business Administration — this is all welcome. But to the extent the president sees this as an opportunity to make crypto a Republican issue, the relief could be short-lived. |
Without real legislative progress in the next two years, most anything can be reversed just as quickly if Democrats retake power. And given the current state of left-leaning discourse on crypto, that's exactly what would happen. |
The left isn't getting any sense of crypto's utility or potential for society. It's getting Rachel Maddow comparing Bitcoin to Beanie Babies. It's getting Zeke Faux insisting crypto is nothing but an offshore casino. |
It's always been mystifying why the Democratic establishment has bought into the Elizabeth Warren narrative that crypto is more or less solely a tool for criminals and tax cheats. Much of the cypherpunk ethos and expectations that crypto can disintermediate the big banks and Big Tech for the public's benefit should resonate with progressives. But as long as that framing dominates, whatever promises Trump makes can be undone at the stroke of a pen. |
The 119th Congress is on the clock, with probably 18 months to provide lasting legal clarity complementing executive regulatory moves. As an industry, crypto has about the same timespan to demonstrate its unambiguously useful role in the American economy. Without that, crypto will remain politically fragile. |
All hat, no cattle — or was it? |
Don't get me wrong; there were bright spots at the summit. The endorsement of stablecoins as a way to promote the US dollar is a pragmatic shift, and there's general agreement that stablecoins are currently crypto's best "killer app" calling card. |
Revisiting IRS treatment of crypto could prove fruitful — something as simple as a de minimis exemption on crypto transactions that shield small payments from capital gains tax would remove a major friction point. |
In parallel, Texas' passage of Senate Bill 21 last week — allowing the state to establish its own bitcoin reserve — is an example of how states can move forward even if Washington dithers, according to Harrison Seletsky, director of business development at SPACE ID. |
"A year ago, none of us could have dreamed of this," Seletsky told Blockworks, suggesting "Texas' move could open the floodgates for other states to follow suit." |
But as for the Feds, for all the posturing about never selling the contents of the new bitcoin stockpile, Trump himself clownishly undercut the idea on Friday. |
"'Never sell your Bitcoin' is a little phrase that they say. I don't know if they're right or not — who the hell knows?" Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but well in line with the notion that his support — like much of his chaotic policymaking — is transactional in nature. In this case, responding to the incentives of the US broken political campaign finance system. |
Are we winning, son? |
— Macauley Peterson |
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0xResearch hosted an X Space last Friday with Noah and Felipe of Theia Research. For the full audio, you can listen here. |
 | Blockworks @Blockworks_ |  |
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Do token fundamentals even matter in this market?
@TheiaResearch and @TraderNoah join @0xResearch's @yeluacaM and @donovanchoy to talk crypto markets x.com/i/spaces/1LyxB… | | | 12:13 AM • Mar 5, 2025 | | | | | | 26 Likes 4 Retweets | 4 Replies |
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Are there too little liquid funds? |
Theia Research: Based on Galaxy Digital's VisionTrack data, private market capital is 4x higher AUM than liquid markets, so that conclusion is understandable. However, I don't necessarily think there isn't enough capital in liquid markets because crypto markets for the past several years have been overvalued on a cash flow basis. Just building out valuation models, it'd be hard to justify a lot of tokens that otherwise should trade on those metrics. It all comes down to product-market fit. There aren't 200 companies in crypto earning strong cash flows that trade at reasonable valuations. |
What is a fair valuation multiple in crypto? |
Theia Research: Public equities on average trade between 15-20x earnings (or 5-10x sales for SaaS). These businesses are much larger, which means their revenue quality is much more stable; funds typically invest in them at a 10-15% hurdle rate. What is the right multiple to pay for a similar crypto company? If it's a 30% hurdle rate, it's a much lower 3.33x multiple compared to equities just because of the fundamental characteristics of revenue and business quality. Investors cannot simply look at public comps and say they trade at 22x earnings for the S&P and then come to crypto and look at pump.fun and say that it should be trading at 22x earnings as well. |
Why do ETH maxis tend to be critical of REV (real economic value) while SOL maxis are favorable of REV? |
Theia Research: ETH maxis may be more critical of REV because it dilutes the "moneyness" narrative of ETH, which is a fragile form of valuation. Moreover, most people look at backward-looking REV instead of DCF forward-looking REV. It paints a less favorable picture for Ethereum in an LTM picture. REV for Solana is inflated this year because of memecoin mania. That number will probably be lower in five to 10 years relative to volumes. |
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 | Degen CEO of Polygon Labs (※,※) @0xMarcB | |
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Undoubtedly true. Maybe even more interesting, I've spoken to teams who voted for the Aave proposal to reduce the LTV on stablecoin assets on Polygon PoS to 0%. Their reason: "We were forced to when the Aave team threatened to no longer work with us. We've seen it happen… x.com/i/web/status/1… |  Nick Cannon @inkymaze
Make no mistake, this is approved comms from Aave labs, Stani, and Zeller. For years under DAO service, we were barred from speaking to the press and faced veiled threats to remove any unapproved tweets. |
| | | 12:59 AM • Mar 9, 2025 | | | | | | 115 Likes 12 Retweets | 16 Replies |
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|  | Etc. @ec265 | |
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$ETH premine FUD seems to be making a comeback, but it has never made sense to me. Premining is the act of mining or creating a quantity of blockchain-based tokens or "coins" before a cryptocurrency is released to the public. $ETH launched with a 72M supply. 83% of that was a… x.com/i/web/status/1… | | | 2:48 PM • Mar 7, 2025 | | | | | | 473 Likes 63 Retweets | 48 Replies |
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|  | _gabrielShapir0 @lex_node | |
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I do worry that if/when regimes change, the BTC strategic reserve will be dumped ETH would make a better reserve asset because the US Gov could trustlessly commit via smart contract not to sell for 100+ years *while still getting onchain yield* | | | 11:21 AM • Mar 10, 2025 | | | | | | 188 Likes 7 Retweets | 51 Replies |
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