| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a jostle for strategic primacy in the frigid waters of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. One of the great things about having a four-star admiral, James Stavridis, among your stable of columnists is that you learn really cool things: That all Navy craft are called "ships" — except submarines, which are called "boats"! That the military commander of NATO is known by the acronym SACEUR! That the US has only one functioning heavy icebreaker, while Russia has around 40! Also, signal flags: That one on the left is Bravo, the right is Zulu, and together they mean: POP THE CHAMPAGNE! Actually, they mean "well done," but allow me some liberties. Because we don't know how much longer we'll be able to break out this signal flag: [1] "Champagne and its bubbles are at an existential crossroads. And it's not just because US President Donald Trump has threatened to place a 200% tariff on wine from the European Union — a mighty menace because the US is the largest importer of champagne," writes Lara Williams. While Trumpian tariffs may come and go, the planet is just going to keep getting warmer: France's Champagne region started feeling the heat in 2003, when many grapes turned out better suited for raisin production than bubbles. "That scorching harvest has been matched in 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2023, with many years coming close," writes Lara. "In the meantime, other parts of the world are becoming more conducive to making champagne-style sparkling wines than Champagne itself as the world's climate shifts — places like Denmark, Japan, Hungary and, sacré bleu, England." At the opposite end of the semaphore spectrum from BZ and bubbly is this one, called Juliet. It means: "My ship is on fire and I am carrying dangerous cargo." Given last week's biggest news story, we could replace it with a signal flag of the same color scheme: That, folks, is the logo for Signal, the (we hope) heavily encrypted messaging app that's a favorite of drug dealers, terrorists, human traffickers and ... America's national security brain trust! Their ship may not be on fire, yet, but they are definitely carrying dangerous cargo. If the White House has its way, we will never know why or how Atlantic magazine editor-in-chief (and former Bloomberg Opinion columnist) Jeffrey Goldberg was added to a group chat on Signal in which Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and others planned military strikes against the Houthis. (Surprisingly, perhaps, some Senate Republicans — notably Armed Services chair Roger Wicker and Intelligence Committee chair Tom Cotton — are showing a little backbone.) Team Trump is playing the distraction game as usual — Hegseth called Goldberg a "deceitful and highly discredited so-called journalist," [2] while Waltz for some unfathomable reason said, "I wouldn't know him if I saw him in a police lineup" — and it seems a sure thing that nobody will be punished, at least not by the president. "Hegseth, during his Senate confirmation hearing, famously railed against what he deemed to be a military overrun by DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) standards, which he claimed eroded readiness and lethality," writes Nia-Malika Henderson. "Yet, here we are, with a possible erosion of readiness, lethality and credibility, given this dangerous security lapse." Another remarkable thing about the Signal exchange was the loathing expressed for America's NATO allies. Hegseth called Europe a bunch of "PATHETIC" freeloaders. "Vice President JD Vance's main concern was whether the strike would send the wrong message, by defending an international seaway through which far more European than US trade passes," adds Marc Champion. "Vance said he just didn't want to be 'bailing Europe out again.' If he was aware that European ships and aircraft have taken part in patrols and previous punitive missions against the Houthis, it didn't show." There was also this curious line from Vance: "I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now." Are the cracks showing? "This was Vance's man-among-boys-flex, an attempt to suggest that he understood Trump's anti-Europe posture better than not only the president, but better than the cabinet members on the text chain," writes Nia-Malika. "Vance has been nothing but a yes-man in public, but the Signal chat suggests a willingness to question the president's judgment, at least behind his back." If there is a silver lining to the disdain for NATO partners, it's that they are upping their defense spending. But are they going about it the right way? "They'll need to change how they spend on defense, not just how much. To be effective, any new funds must be deployed strategically, efficiently and cooperatively — something Europe has historically struggled to manage," write the Editors. "European countries too often invest in platforms unsuited for modern combat or which are not the best use of available resources (the UK's aircraft carrier fleet is a case in point)." At least the Europeans can agree on one thing: They are no longer welcome in Trump's America. "Tariff threats and hostility towards supposed allies have already made Canadians and Europeans wary about trips to the US (together, these two groups account for almost half of overseas visitors)," writes Chris Bryant.  Are America's Asian partners any better off after Hegseth's first official jaunt across the Pacific? "The defense secretary has had conversations with some key Asian allies, including the Philippines and Thailand, affirming iron-clad support for Manila," Karishma Vaswani writes. "But some of the other signals from Washington aren't as encouraging. Under Biden, the US pledged to ramp up its military presence in Japan with the creation of a joint force headquarters. Those plans may be scrapped to save costs, according to NBC and other local media reports. Trump has questioned why American money is being used to help Japan and other Asian allies defend themselves. These mixed messages are unsettling for the region." What are jilted allies to do? Gang up: "While neither the EU nor Japan today can do without the US — especially Japan, given it has no alternative North Atlantic Treaty Organization alliance to fall back on — they can help each other prepare for a less certain tomorrow," write Lionel Laurent and Gearoid Reidy. "Tokyo, already the world's No. 10 military spender, is aiming to lift defense spending to 2% of gross domestic product. It has been less naive and more prescient in recognizing the threat posed by Russia and China than Germany, whose reluctance to invest in hard power has left it strategically vulnerable and scrambling to spend." The US spends plenty on defense, nearly a trillion dollars a year all told. But as Signalgate shows, stupidity can leave you plenty vulnerable. Bonus Signals Reading: What's the World Got in Store? - Florida special elections, April 1: Forget Polls. Watch the Florida Special Election Results — Mary Ellen Klas
- US trade balance, April 3: A Missed Opportunity on VAT Haunts Trade War — Jonathan Levin
- US jobs report, April 4: The Economic Data Is as Cloudy as the Outlook — Conor Sen
You know who else has a pretty cool flag? Greenland.  Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images Europe The Erfalasorput, as it is known, is said to symbolize Greenland's glaciers (white) and sunsets (red). Perhaps they should have added gold, because Trump sees the massive island as a mine of valuable and strategic minerals. Ukraine, too. But neither is very realistic: "Dreams of exploiting riches buried in war-ravaged Ukraine are a dangerous distraction. Even if those deposits were commercially viable — which remains far from certain — accessing some of them could take decades," say the Editors. "Canada and even Greenland hold more immediate potential and, before being threatened with absorption by the US, had seemed perfectly willing to cooperate to tap it. The diplomatic costs of the administration's provocations have arguably outstripped any likely gains." [3] Which raises a question: Why is Trump so fixated on Greenland? The Greenlanders aren't returning the interest (see the PR disaster Vance and his wife, Usha, have run into). Andreas Kluth has an answer: bad maps. [4] "To the extent that Trump's love for maps plays a role, it's hardly the first time that the whims of cartography have shaped the worldviews of leaders and thus the arc of history," Andreas writes. "The paradox stems from the problem of projecting a three-dimensional globe onto a two-dimensional map. This challenge has forced cartographers since antiquity to make different sets of compromises, and Trump probably grew up with a style that was and is especially popular in classrooms: the Mercator Projection." Hence generations of Americans living under the impression Greenland is larger than Africa. But we can do better! "Another projection type is polar or azimuthal (after a mathematical term rather than a person). It distorts little and comes closest to how Earth looks as seen from space, which is one reason why the United Nations chose this projection for its logo. But you have to choose a center or focus, and few people aside from Santa would pick the North Pole," adds Andreas. "That's changing, as the ice melts and more of the Arctic becomes navigable for longer stretches of the year, in turn prompting the US, Russia, China and others to jostle for strategic primacy in the frigid waters." And just think how strategically important it will become when the North Pole is the sparkling wine capital of the world. Bonus Champagne Problems Watching: Notes: Please send Dom Perignon and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. | 
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