| Donald Trump will address Congress tonight for the first time in his second term. And the stakes are high, Joshua Green writes, as the president's supporters are starting to doubt his ability to deliver on promises to lower prices. Plus: The top disposable vape brands all trace back to one man in Shenzhen, China. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. The last time Donald Trump gave a formal address to the country was at his inauguration in January. "We are at the start of a thrilling new era of national success," he declared. Flash-forward to today, as Trump prepares to deliver a prime-time address to a joint session of Congress, and there are growing doubts. Trump's approval rating, comfortably positive in the weeks after his election, is underwater in a series of recent polls. The stock market, which shot upward in a burst of animal spirits after his victory, is suddenly cratering. Most worrisome of all, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, a real-time economic indicator, is showing a sharp contraction of 2.8% in annualized gross domestic product in the first quarter. Yikes! So Trump's speech arrives at a pivotal moment. A sizable group of people who voted for him in November appear to be torn about whether to keep faith in his vow to wipe out inflation and bring back the good times—or abandon him, as the economy stalls, inflation persists, chaos mounts and key presidential duties are handed off to Elon Musk (who'll be in the House chamber tonight). We all know Trump is capable of delivering a great performance that convinces voters. Can a successful speech to a national audience shore up his wavering support? It's not unthinkable. On Jan. 20, Trump promised that "national unity is now returning to America." He also said, "We will bring prices down." And Americans liked what they heard—a lot. Soon after, his approval rating hit 53% in a CBS News poll, higher than at any point in his first term. Respondents described him as "tough," "focused" and "effective."  Trump delivering his inaugural address in the Capitol. Photographer: Kenny Holston/Getty Images When he appears tonight, Trump's main challenge will be convincing voters that he remains focused on those tasks and is capable of delivering the economic renaissance he promised. There's plenty of skepticism. The latest CBS News poll finds that 62% of respondents say prices have been going up, with 33% saying they're stable. Only 5% say Trump is fulfilling his pledge to bring costs down. By a ratio of more than 3 to 1, respondents also say their income isn't keeping up with inflation. Most blame Trump: Fifty-two percent say his policies are making prices for food and groceries go up, while just 14% say they're bringing prices down. In another ominous sign, consumer inflation expectations are also rising. Today, Trump slapped new tariffs on roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports from Canada and Mexico (25% duties) as well as those from China (raising that charge to 20%). That's likely to put more pressure on prices for US consumers. It will also put political pressure on Trump when he speaks to the nation. He'll have to convince voters he's laser-focused on the economy, even as his own actions are stirring economic discord. Impossible? Trump doesn't think so. "In America," he said in January, "the impossible is what we do best." | 
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