Sunday, March 9, 2025

Trump deal tsunami, Paramount merger update, YouTube's record

Good afternoon from Indian Wells, where I am watching some tennis. I am headed to Seoul and Mumbai later this month; give me a shout if you
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Good afternoon from Indian Wells, where I am watching some tennis. I am headed to Seoul and Mumbai later this month; give me a shout if you want to meet up.

We're going to talk merger mania, Paramount and an Oscar surprise, but first…  If you don't yet subscribe to this newsletter, please do so here. And if you want to snag early bird tickets to the Screentime conference, you can do that as well.

Five things you need to know

  • YouTube has 125 million subscribers. That's more than every other streaming video service other than Netflix, Disney and Amazon.
  • Diljit Dosanjh is leading a major shift in Indian music, which has long been dominated by Bollywood soundtracks. Sohee Kim spoke to the man with 20 million monthly listeners after he sold out venues worldwide.
  • The Oscars delivered 19.7 million viewers, a slight increase from a year ago thanks to the addition of the Hulu stream.
  • The Federal Communications Commission increased its scrutiny of public radio stations.
  • YouTube stars Dude Perfect opened an 80,000-square-foot production facility just outside of Dallas. Aisha Counts spoke to the Dudes about their plans to turn YouTube fame into a huge business.

The Trump deal tsunami hasn't arrived

Remember a couple months ago when media executives were excited about the arrival of a new president? Whether or not they voted for Donald Trump, they believed he would be more business-friendly than Joe Biden. He'd approve more deals and loosen regulation.

Well, the companies that need to do deals are in Trump's crosshairs. David Ellison's deal for Paramount, which was expected to breeze through, is currently held up as Trump pursues a lawsuit against 60 Minutes. Comcast, which is planning to spin out several networks into a new company that would buy assets, is being examined by the Federal Communications Commission. Comcast is just one of many companies being scrutinized for its DEI practices.

While odds are that both those deals still happen, the media industry is starting to remember the economic uncertainty of Trump's first term. Just this week, Trump announced tariffs, trade partners reciprocated and Trump delayed the tariffs. Shares in Netflix and Spotify tanked thanks to this confusion.

Companies like the chat service Discord and ticket seller SeatGeek are eager to go public, but the market for initial public offerings is slow because of "Market volatility caused by an uncertain economy."

Warner Bros. Discovery chief David Zaslav, who was one of the first executives to talk about the likely deals to come, sounded far more cautious on his call with analysts last month. He suggested that consolidation could just mean bundling streaming services rather than merging with other companies.

Zaslav has explored spinning off or selling some of his TV networks, but so far he's just restructured his own company.

It's far too early to say deals won't happen, and regulation may be relaxed. But after a brief burst of optimism, there is a growing sentiment among business moguls that this year is going to be rocky. Just ask Nintendo.

The best of Screentime (and other stuff)

Paramount explores merging its streaming services

Paramount Global is looking to merge the technology underpinning its two streaming services Paramount+ and Pluto, the first step in the revamp of the company's streaming operations. While David Ellison isn't in charge of the company just yet, he does support this initiative, per several people familiar with his thinking.

Improving the performance of its streaming business is the single biggest priority for Paramount. The company makes all its profit from cable networks, a business that is in decline. Paramount's streaming business lost about $500 million last year, which was a major improvement over the year before.

While Paramount+ has posted strong subscriber growth – it added 20 million customers over the last couple years – it still ranks as a third-tier streaming service, accounting for a little more than 1% of TV viewing in the US. (It's comparable to Peacock and Max, though the exact percentages vary by month.) Pluto accounts for less than 1% of TV viewing, trailing competitors like Tubi and the Roku Channel.

Ellison plans to make Paramount more competitive in streaming by improving its technology and bring in new management. He has tapped former Netflix programming executive Cindy Holland to lead his streaming service. Though, again, she doesn't officially have the job yet.

Paramount operates two different services, the free Pluto and the paid Paramount+. They have been run as distinct businesses and Ellison has told everyone he wants to more closely integrate them.

Paramount has already been conducting tests, using Pluto to send people to Paramount+ with in-app promotion. It could also put free shows on Paramount+ to see what that would look like.

Paramount was once ahead of its peers in streaming. CBS introduced All Access before there was a Peacock, Max or Disney+. Viacom bought Pluto before Fox had Tubi. But years of infighting, mergers and mismanagement left Paramount behind most of its peers.

Paramount licensed many of its biggest hits – including Yellowstone and South Park – to rival services. Many of the most popular titles from CBS are shared with Netflix and Hulu, while Paramount+ has had to pay for shows from MTV, VH1 and BET that aren't of interest to its core customers.

Paramount has spent the past few years investing most of its additional resources into its namesake service, starving Pluto and causing it to fall behind its peers that invest more in programming. When Ellison's deal for Paramount appeared to fall apart, the current leaders explored selling a piece of Pluto to a third party.

Paramount+ has built a following with Taylor Sheridan shows and football. But it has no major sports once the NFL season is done -- other than March Madness -- and hasn't gotten people hooked on other shows.

It's one thing to combine the back end, which should ultimately save money and make it easier for the company to use Pluto to funnel people into Paramount+. The customer wouldn't notice a huge difference.

Combining them fully so that there is only one service would take a couple years and cost a lot of money. It would also result in the loss of customers. When Paramount merged Showtime with Paramount+, some of the Showtime customers were lost in the process.

While most industry experts and executives assume Paramount+ will eventually combine (or at least bundle) with some of its peers, there has been no major movement on that front despite years of chatter.

The Oscar bump

Anora was the big winner at this year's Academy Awards, which marks the second time in the last five years that the independent distributor Neon has captured the top prize. (It won for Parasite, which was produced by Korean entertainment companies.)

Neon came close to selling itself a few years ago. The combo of another Oscar winner and the commercial success of its horror movies should help when it next wants to raise money.

Neon chief Tom Quinn spoke to Matt Belloni and me on The Town. The company spent three times as much on the awards campaign as Sean Baker spent to produce the movie. Variety had a good breakdown on the campaign.

The No. 1 movie in the world is…

Mickey 17. The new film from Bong Joon-Ho grossed $44 million this weekend worldwide. Not a great result for a movie that cost about $120 million to produce. The most-watched movie was likely Netflix's Electric State, but we won't get numbers for the $300 million movie for a few days.

The No. 1 album in the US is…

Tate McRae's So Close to What. She sold the equivalent of 177,000 albums in her debut week. Here's guessing Lady Gaga will supplant her.

Deals, deals, deals

  • Disney cut more jobs and shut down the 538 website.
  • Even with a brief dip this week, Spotify's market capitalization has reached record levels while shares in record labels aren't budging. Ashley Carman explains the discrepancy.
  • Sports personality Stephen A. Smith has signed a new deal with ESPN worth more than $100 million.
  • A trial to decide the fate of K-pop sensation NewJeans began Friday with a surprise appearance.

Weekly playlist

I normally recommend music, films and the occasional book, but I just need to shout a couple of impressions that I can't stop watching. One is this comedian who spoofs Bill Simmons' podcast (and sports media in general). This Tony Bourdain impression from Charles E. Cheese… my god.

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