Wednesday, March 26, 2025

The Ultimate Fibonacci Guide to Calculate Targets in Market Pullbacks

And consumers’ ability to keep up is melting away
 
   
     

Consumers’ Ability to Keep Up Is Melting Away
 
 
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.

We’ve known that the lower-end consumer has been stressed for a number of years now. Walmart has been popping on other consumers trading down. Is it finally time for the consumer to start melting away? What are the signs of problems brewing? 

Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving! 

Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. 
 
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The Ultimate Fibonacci Guide to Calculate Targets in Market Pullbacks 

Investors and traders alike often seek clarity in the midst of market volatility. One tool that has continually provided that clarity for me is Fibonacci retracement. 

This method, based on simple math, helps pinpoint areas where prices tend to stall or reverse. I’ve often found that the Fibonacci retracement levels — 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% — serve as reliable markers for potential support and resistance during corrections.

So let’s dive in and discuss how…

Understanding Fibonacci Retracement

My journey with Fibonacci retracement began as I searched for patterns amid market fluctuations. Rather than relying solely on complex models, I discovered that these retracement levels provide a straightforward connection between price moves and market psychology. 

When a stock like Apple (AAPL) rallies and then experiences a pullback, the retracement tells me where buyers might reenter the market. Alongside names like Microsoft (MSFT), these levels help me assess whether a correction is simply a healthy pause or a harbinger of a deeper reversal. 

This technique is especially useful when evaluating trends in sectors like Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY). Even in times of uncertainty, Fibonacci retracement guides my decisions by isolating key price areas, making my technical analysis less about guesswork and more about informed strategy.

Calculating Targets in a Correction

When calculating targets, I always start with a clean chart analysis. 

The process involves identifying a significant price wave — both its low and its high — and then applying the Fibonacci ratios to that move. This method frames the potential extent of a market correction. 

For instance, if a stock climbs rapidly and then begins retracing, I carefully note whether it approaches the 61.8% marker. A near approach to this level suggests that the underlying selling pressure might be testing the market’s limits. 

I consider these levels in the context of volume patterns and broader market sentiment — factors that enrich my analysis beyond the raw numbers.

Integrating Fibonacci retracement with other technical indicators has enhanced my overall strategy. I routinely compare these retracement targets with moving averages and momentum indicators to validate my tests for support. 

Moreover, by keeping an eye on how sectors like Health Care (XLV) behave during similar corrections, I adjust my risk appetite in a market that rarely plays by predictable rules. 

The key is to balance the objective guidance of Fibonacci ratios with the insightful judgment gleaned from market behavior.

This approach has not only solidified my conviction in using Fibonacci retracement, but it’s also proven invaluable in a market that demands adaptability. Continuous learning and calibration of tools like these are essential in striving for consistency in results.

Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!
 
 
‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!

And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page!
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We’re Near the Midpoint, So It’s Time to Check in on the 1,000 Wins Challenge
 
 
With multiple wins in a single day… 

The 1,000 wins challenge is holding strong even in these volatile markets.
 
 
And there's still room for you to join in.
 
 
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Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Casey’s General Stores (CASY)  ​
 
 
 

This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. 
 
• CASY is a new potential entry. Target: 455.75 Stop below: 371.08
 
• CASY has a historical win rate of 83.33%
 
• CASY has a profit factor of 1.904
 
• CASY trades last 43 trading days on average over 42 trades since 1983.
 
See the secret behind these signals here!  

This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.

How the Daily Chart Setup Works

Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:

1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line. 

2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 

3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. 

I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!

You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!

Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!

I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. 

*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 
   
 
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