Crypto News: The Trump selloff

President Donald Trump said he means it this time. The Republican has spent much of the past two months threatening to implement tariffs only to (with one exception) back down or delay in his usual brinkmanship-style of negotiating. But on Monday, he said his pledged levies against Canada and Mexico—America's biggest trading partners—will most definitely happen tomorrow. Markets took him at his word and dropped sharply, with the S&P 500 seeing its worst selloff of the year.

If Trump, 78, were to change his mind again, perhaps now would be a good opportunity to buy the dip. Indeed, one of his aides said over the weekend that the 25% figure associated with the planned tariffs might change. (Trump has also promised another 10% on top of the 10% tariff he already imposed on China.)

Uncertainty has been the watchword when it comes to the US economy of late: Just the possibility of a regional or global trade war appears to be doing damage. And after two weeks of mostly foreboding data about rising inflation and unemployment in what a few months ago was a churning economy, Monday brought more grim news—this time for industry.

A private survey showed American factory activity last month edged closer to stagnation—slowing growth combined with faster inflation—as new orders and employment contracted. A gauge of prices paid for materials jumped to the highest since June 2022. So how should investors react to all this smoke on the horizon?

"It's time to be nervous," Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management said about today's developments. "Not bearish, but nervous." —David E. Rovella and Natasha Solo-Lyons

What You Need to Know Today

Only a couple of years ago, manufacturers were fighting for space to relocate their operations to Monterrey, an industrial city in Mexico's northeast, as they sought to move closer to the US and its vast consumer market. These days, real estate agents are offering flexible rental plans just to keep businesses around. Mexico's aim to grow rapidly by attracting foreign investment and boosting exports to the US had begun to falter even before Trump returned to the White House. Now the entire nearshoring plan risks collapse if the Republican follows through with his promised tariffs.

Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico's president, during a press conference at the National Palace in Mexico City on Feb. 20. She has pledged retaliation against any US tariffs. Photographer: Mayolo Lopez Gutierrez/Bloomberg

The US Securities and Exchange Commission is offering eligible employees a $50,000 incentive to resign or retire by April 4, according to an email reviewed by Bloomberg. The message, sent Friday by SEC Chief Operating Officer Ken Johnson to all staff, comes as the Trump administration seeks to slash the size of the federal government and fire thousands of workers. The effort by Trump and his aide, multibillionaire Elon Musk, has been challenged in multiple lawsuits as illegal, with some judges ordering the administration to pause. It's unclear however if those court orders are being obeyed.

Compensation packages in structured finance and private credit are surging as competition for people heats up in New York and London. Average pay increases for external moves picked up to 21% in 2024, according to data compiled by credit industry recruitment firm RCQ Associates. Employees who stayed in their roles saw overall compensation rise 16% in the US, reflecting improved bonuses. The highest levels of competition were for the vice president level, according to a RCQ note to clients seen by Bloomberg. By contrast there was a decline in external hiring for more junior analyst and associate titles.

Carlyle Group is said to be seeking to raise more than $3 billion for its newest infrastructure fund. The firm has begun discussing the Carlyle Global Infrastructure Opportunity Fund II with prospective investors. In 2019, Carlyle said that it raised $2.2 billion for Carlyle Global Infrastructure Opportunity Fund LP, a vehicle dedicated to investing in infrastructure assets. That fund has backed Terminal One at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport; Crimson Midstream LLC, which provides crude-oil storage and transportation services; and Amp Solar Group Inc., an energy-transition company that operates battery-storage and other renewable-energy projects.

Andrew Cuomo's bid for New York City mayor is getting a boost from the city's elite as many of the wealthy and powerful line up behind him. Ken Langone, Anthony Scaramucci and Marc Lasry are in, for example. It would seem they see in the Democrat a version of themselves: a chief executive with a no-nonsense, get-things-done demeanor who'll stay focused on what they consider the urgent priorities of public safety on streets and subways, as well as homelessness and affordability. Polls have shown the former three-term governor with double-digit leads over the other challengers, including incumbent Eric Adams, who has been at the center of a slew of corruption probes and the subject of a sprawling federal indictment.

Andrew Cuomo Photographer: Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg

At business schools across the US, graduation is fast approaching—and the mood isn't great. MBA programs that once offered a glide path to lucrative jobs are finding fewer and fewer perches for graduates on Wall Street or in corporate America. At every one of the nation's top schools, known as the magnificent seven (no, not those seven), job-placement outcomes have declined since 2021. This year is looking no better, as job growth in white-collar sectors is tepid and private-sector wage growth is declining.

Kroger replaced Chief Executive Officer Rodney McMullen following an investigation into his personal conduct, which the US supermarket chain said was unrelated to the company's financial performance and didn't involve Kroger employees. Lead director Ron Sargent, 69, was named chairman and interim CEO effective immediately. Like its competitors, Kroger has focused on diversifying beyond the core retail business into areas that have faster growth, such as advertising and data analytics. It also teamed up with UK-based Ocado Group to build warehouses for online orders—a deal that has drawn some skepticism.