Crypto News: The Forecast: BYD’s EV dominance

Welcome back to The Forecast, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.

This week we're looking at BYD's path to electric-vehicle dominance, a Trump ally's trip to China, yet more American tariffs and an especially bad allergy season in the US.

BYD's EV dominance

BYD is the carmaker on everyone's lips at the moment and the chatter may be about to get even louder. China's best-selling automaker is due to report its full-year earnings on Monday and revenue could top $100 billion — a first for BYD that would also put it ahead of Tesla, whose 2024 sales were $97.7 billion.

BYD has had an amazing run. Since it stopped selling internal-combustion-engine cars in March 2022 — making it the first major automaker in the world to fully transition away from gasoline-powered vehicles — sales have registered hockey-stick growth. That's thanks in large part to BYD's lineup of attractive models across the price spectrum.

The battery company turned carmaker already sells about the same number of EVs as Tesla — 1.76 million in 2024 versus Tesla's 1.79 million — but is much larger when all of its other passenger hybrid car sales are included. BYD's total car deliveries last year climbed to 4.25 million, almost as many as Ford. For 2025, BYD thinks it will ship as many as 6 million vehicles.

The hot streak hasn't stopped BYD from continuing to make advances in technology. Its shares surged to a fresh record last week — they're up almost 60% this year alone in Hong Kong — after it unveiled a new ecosystem that allows some of its electric vehicles to get 400 kilometers (250 miles) of driving range from just five minutes of charging.

In February, BYD also announced it would "democratize" advanced driver assistance technology by including its so-called God's Eye software in some of its most affordable models.

But there are some challenges. The company has said it will need to roll out around 4,000 super-fast charging stations in China to support its new charging platform, a big capital outlay. And while BYD is by far and away China's No. 1 brand, it's still yet to make comparable inroads in Europe and the US, where tariffs and even outright bans on made-in-China cars limit growth.

For now, the opportunities outweigh the hurdles. It doesn't look like BYD's time in the sun will end soon.

— Danny Lee and Katrina Nicholas, Bloomberg News

Predictions

There's a 20% chance the US breaches its debt ceiling this year, at least briefly, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. (As of now, prediction market Kalshi puts the chances at 6%.) — Nathan R. Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence (Terminal subscribers only)

AI will get more efficient by learning to forget. So says AI researcher Sepp Hochreiter, who runs a lab at Johannes Kepler University Austria, and pioneered a key building block of modern AI. — Jonathan Tirone, Bloomberg News

Private space stations are gaining steam. Or at the very least, funding. A crypto billionaire is "the sole financial backer of a wildly ambitious effort to build the world's first commercial space station and send it into orbit." — Kiel Porter and Loren Grush, Bloomberg Businessweek

"Pollen counts will be higher than average at times this year in parts of 39 US states," says AccuWeather. It's the new normal thanks to a hotter planet. — Mark Gongloff, Bloomberg Opinion

Global growth will be slower than expected, says the OECD, due to Donald Trump's trade policies. — William Horobin, Bloomberg News

Keep an Eye On

A Trump Ally in China

A Who's-Who of global CEOs will descend on China this week to attend two high-profile business conferences, but much of the attention may be on one unusual visitor: a little-known senator from Montana.

Steve Daines, a Republican confidante of President Trump, is set to meet a senior Chinese leader ahead of the annual China Development Forum, which takes place March 23-24. Besides being the first American politician to publicly sit down with a top Communist Party official since Trump returned to office, Daines will suss out China's willingness to play ball on everything from trade to fentanyl ahead of a possible summit of the leaders.

Also unusual is who Daines might be meeting: It may very well be President Xi Jinping. According to people familiar, the Chinese leader is already expected to meet some global CEOs during the week — either during the CDF or after the end of the four-day Boao Forum, known as China's Davos, on March 28.

Xi's attendance would be unprecedented, as meeting foreign business titans hasn't typically been his bag. But a slowing Chinese economy and a trade war with the US have pushed China's leadership to go that extra mile in trying to lure back foreign business and revive the animal spirits Beijing needs to reach its ambitious economic growth targets for this year.

— Allen Wan, Bloomberg News

What Are the Chances...

30%

The chances that the US imposes an across-the-board tariff on the EU by the end of June, according to Polymarket.

The chance of some kind of tariff on the EU by April 29 is 70%. Meanwhile, the chances on Kalshi that the US has substantially increased its tariffs by Q4 — a market we first cited back in November — are holding steady at 66%.

Weekend Reads

Week Ahead

Sunday: The China Development Forum begins in Beijing.

Monday: BYD reports earnings; South Korea's Constitutional Court rules on whether to uphold Prime Minister Han Duck-soo's impeachment.

Tuesday: The Boao Forum, known as "China's Davos," begins; the Conference Board reports on US consumer confidence.

Wednesday: The UK and Australia report CPI; the US Congressional Budget Office is expected to release an estimate of when the US will reach its debt ceiling.

Thursday: Mexico's central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points.

Friday: The US publishes PCE data; the University of Michigan publishes its US consumer index; Japan publishes the Tokyo CPI.

Also: The US, Ukraine and Russia are expected to hold talks in Saudi Arabia this week about a potential ceasefire.

Have a great Sunday and a productive week.

— Walter Frick and Kira Bindrim, Bloomberg Weekend Edition; Danny Lee, Katrina Nicholas and Allen Wan, Bloomberg News