By John Ainger Climate ministers, delegates and think tank analysts arrived at Germany's foreign ministry in Berlin this week for the first stop on the COP30 climate roadshow. The Petersberg Climate Dialogue takes place in the German capital every year and marks the first official event where ministers from around the world present their ideas for what the next United Nations' convened climate summits — or COPs — need to deliver. The German conference was forged by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel after COP talks collapsed in Copenhagen in 2009. COP30, which will be held in the Brazilian city of Belem, is still eight months away, but those pushing back on climate ambition are currently in the ascendancy. "We are slightly losing this game," Andre Correa do Lago, COP30 president-designate, told the assembled delegates in Berlin, voicing what few people wanted to acknowledge. Officials from around 40 countries turned up this year and did their best to assure one another that they remained committed to the 1.5C goal outlined by the landmark Paris Agreement, even after US President Donald Trump decided to leave the pact in one of his first acts in office this January. Yet other geopolitical distractions — namely Ukraine's war against Russia — have caused climate change to fall down the priority list for countries. The weighty matters of the day were discussed under glittering chandeliers in a complex originally built by Adolf Hitler to house the Nazi government's Reichsbank. Here are some of the key takeaways from this week: There are fears of a new COP antagonist In public, few people criticized the new Trump administration for retreating on climate. Jennifer Morgan, Germany's special envoy on climate, only went as far as calling the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement "regrettable." Indeed, the US won't have officially left the Paris accord by the time of COP30. There was concern that Washington's recent unpredictability in international diplomacy could mean they would try and disrupt climate progress at the conference, according to people familiar with the matter, who agreed to speak on condition of anonymity. Saudi Arabia wants a seat at the tableThe country, which has long acted as a break on more climate ambition, was at the Berlin conference this week. There were other COP regulars in attendance, including the European Union's climate chief Wopke Hoekstra and his UK counterpart Ed Miliband. China sent Li Gao, the country's vice minister for ecology and environment, and small island states showed up in force. But there were notable absentees too: India did not send a delegation, even though they were invited. The EU got a scolding from the UNRelatively few countries met a February deadline to submit updated emissions cutting plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), for the next decade. The head of the UN's climate change wing, Simon Stiell, who was at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue, called out the European Union in particular for having not yet delivered its NDC at a separate event in Berlin this week. "This is Europe's moment; I urge you seize it," Stiell said in a speech at the Europe 2025 conference. "You have the technology, you have the resources; what is needed now is leadership." The holdup on the EU plan can be partially explained by the bloc's internal debate over climate ambition going as far as 2040. China, the world's biggest emitter, hasn't delivered its updated climate plan either. Quirky finance ideas are still welcomeAt COP29 last year, country leaders were pitching all sorts of new ways to raise funds — from taxing business class flights to bond trades — to plug a multi-trillion-dollar gap in climate finance. This year Brazil said it would come forward with a report on how the world can scale up private finance to $1.3 trillion, saying it will likely need the heavy involvement of development banks and innovative sources of finance, such as levies on plane tickets. The Dubai pledge seems more like a desert mirageEven as the world surpassed 1.5C of global warming for the first time on an annual basis last year, there doesn't seem to be much appetite from countries to strengthen commitments made at COP28 in Dubai to transition away from fossil fuels. Countries are "not ready to go beyond that," said Yalchin Rafiyev, who was lead negotiator for Azerbaijan during its hosting of COP29 last year, in an interview in Berlin. "Now we are living in such a challenging environment, we should think about the process itself rather than going beyond." |
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