| About 4,400 shipping executives, retailers and supply chain managers from 50 countries gathered in Long Beach, California, this week for TPM — now in its 25th year and hosted by S&P Global. No matter the economic mood outside, it's usually a huge reunion-like party — with a Bloody Mary station, a tiki bar, happy hours and dinners around town every night of the four-day conference. On Tuesday night, rapper Wiz Khalifa performed. But for all the revelry on the sidelines, there was serious business to discuss. Even for an industry used to disruptions, this week's trade news from Washington whipsawed attendees between panels on everything from cold chain and logistics tech to Red Sea ship attacks and ocean carrier strategies. As the news broke about President Donald Trump's import taxes on Canada, China and Mexico, the mood shifted to contingency planning and gaming out the impact of reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs. Another subject of debate was the proposal from the US Trade Representative's office to charge China-linked ships as much as $1.5 million each time they call at a US port. Soren Toft, chief executive of top container line MSC, said ultimately consumers will foot that bill. Read More: US Fees on China Ships Risk a Surge in Costs, Top Carrier Warns Then came news Tuesday that the Trump administration was preparing measures to boost American shipbuilding. Trump also told Congress that evening of his plans to create a maritime office in the White House. "When we're talking to folks here at TPM, a lot of the kind of comments that go around are, 'It's almost at this point not worth changing your business-as-usual, because you just don't know what's going to happen. You just have to take it on the chin,'" said Chris Rogers, S&P Global's head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Here are more highlights from Davos on the Docks: Rising protectionism. "We've had six years now of getting used to anti-trade," AgTC Executive Director Peter Friedmann said. "Then we have the Chinese ship proposal from USTR," which Friedmann noted began under the Biden administration. "It's a bipartisan, unfortunately, frontal attack on trade." Read More: US Tries to Counter China's Maritime Dominance Several panelists pointed out how hard tariffs are hard to undo once they're in place. And how impossible it is to plan around the levies until they're well defined. Asked how shippers could mitigate risk or shore up the stability of their supply chains in the next 18 months, Lars Jensen of Vespucci Maritime said "it would be pure folly to make strategic moves when there's no idea even what the rules are tomorrow." Impact on exporters. Toft warned that the ship fees proposal would likely cause ocean carriers to cut out stops at smaller US ports, which would cause congestion at bigger hubs like LA-Long Beach. But it would also be devastating for industries that rely on specific ports, like agriculture exporters and the Port of Oakland. When Trump doubled the tariff on Chinese imports to 20% in a matter of weeks, China's retaliation was swift, with immediate blocks on soybeans from three US companies, as well as other farm exports. Big Take: Trump's Tariffs Push Xi to Overhaul China's Ailing Growth Model Commodities are also extremely price sensitive and even a short interruption caused by uncertainty could be devastating to industries that are already dealing with hardship. "We've had constant avian influenza outbreaks, and now we're having tariff issues. For our industry we do need to see some stability," said Garrett Borkhuis, the VP of trade at the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council. "Once we lose access, even for a month, even for a few weeks, you know we're losing contact with importers." Lessons Learned. Much discussion centered on comparing Trump 1.0 tariffs on Trump 2.0 tariffs and how to prepare for what was coming. Cindy Allen, now CEO of consultancy Trade Force Multiplier, said during Trump 1.0, after "feeling like we had been beaten down by all of the work, we did a study and determined that there was about a 350% increase in regulatory actions that affected trade, both inbound and outbound." "Fast-forward to Trump 2.0 we're seeing that 350% increase in six weeks," Allen said. "So for those of you who are working late hours and on your phone constantly and on email with your overseas partners and with your suppliers, you're not alone." Administrative Mess Scott Lincicome, an international trade lawyer now with the Cato Institute, said the speed of US trade policy changes, combined with the complexities involved, posed challenges. "From a purely administrative level, you're talking about thousands of tariff lines on maybe, up to 200 different countries," Lincicome said. That could mean 750,000 to 3,000,000 different tariff lines in the tariff code, as opposed to a few thousands today, he said. Container rates. Carriers and panelists said the Red Sea shipping diversions are supporting ocean freight rates by tying up capacity. Early offers are coming in close to $2,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Asia to the US West Coast and about $3,000 to the East Coast, said veteran freight forwarder Stephanie Loomis on the last day of the conference. That's compared to last year's rates of about $1,600 and $2,600. Read More: Shipping Profit Boom Evaporates on US Tariffs, Red Sea Reopening "Most shippers are somewhat resigned to paying more than last year. It's a matter of how much and what kind of assurances they can get for space," said Loomis, who also spoke on a panel about ocean carriers' post-pandemic business strategy. Still, she expects rates to come down a bit before they're finalized. "I've also heard many are looking at shorter terms — three or six months— because of the possibility of the Suez Canal opening back up, which would likely drive spot rates through the floor." When will MSC start sending ships through the Red Sea again? "It's unpredictable. First of all, we look at security situation, it has to be safe. And right now it's not safe. We know it's all linked to a number of agreements in the Middle East that are still being discussed. So for us, there is no, you know, immediate return back to the Red Sea. Could it happen in two months, six months, next year? I don't know," Toft said. —Laura Curtis in Los Angeles Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping. President Trump's tariff plans are getting a skeptical reaction from one important audience: American consumers. How are markets and businesses reacting? Join our Live Q&A on March 6 at 1 p.m. EST. | 
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