Tuesday, March 18, 2025

Supply Lines: More orderly tariff rollout

If the White House's confusing tariff rollout is going to gain some semblance of order, it might just come from an attorney and acolyte of P
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If the White House's confusing tariff rollout is going to gain some semblance of order, it might just come from an attorney and acolyte of President Donald Trump's first-term trade adviser Robert Lighthizer.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has largely been out of the public eye during Trump's first two months of market-roiling uncertainty around trade policy. Now Greer seems poised to help restore order ahead of the planned April 2 announcement of a tariff reset the administration is labeling as a "reciprocal" approach, Bloomberg reports from Washington. (Click here for the full story.)

Trump himself is billing it as a big day — one that'll be "liberating" for a US economy which he says has been abused by major trading partners over the years.

Read More: Trump's Tariffs Are Self-Sabotage, Australia Treasurer Says

Under Greer, USTR has reinstated parts of a process that were missing from prior tariffs imposed on Canada, Mexico, China and metals by asking for public comment on the reciprocal duties. That gives the trade office a formal way to receive feedback from businesses and other stakeholders. 

Trade lawyers see risk in Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act backing the North American and China tariffs, which he tied to drug trafficking and migration, as the legal basis for the reciprocal levies. If he does so, the duties could face lawsuits because they don't fit squarely in the law's description of a national emergency.

QuickTake: Trump Is Promising Reciprocal Tariffs. What Are They?

Discussions are ongoing about what exactly Trump and his team will announce early next month.

One likely outcome is for USTR to create a formula for a single rate for each country based on that nation's average tariff level and other measures the Trump team considers discriminatory, according to Bloomberg's reporting. The rates, though, could be adjusted based on Trump's perception of whether a country has been cooperative or combative.

'The Dirty 15'

Here's how Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described it early Tuesday during an interview with Fox Business:

"What's going to happen on April 2, each country will receive a number that we believe that represents their tariffs. So for some countries it could be quite low. For some countries it could be quite high," he said, noting that he hasn't seen the numbers and the process is being run by USTR and the Commerce Department. 

Bessent said some of the tariffs "may not have to go on, because a deal is pre-negotiated." In other cases, he hoped, after a nation received its "reciprocal tariff number, that right after that, they will come to us and want to negotiate it down."

He added that there's a sizeable number of countries where the US has a small trading surplus. "And then there's what we would call kind of the dirty 15, and they have substantial tariffs," Bessent said.

Brendan Murray in London

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Empire state | New York state manufacturing activity dropped in March to the lowest level since early 2024 while measures of prices picked up, consistent with expectations for slower growth and faster inflation as tariffs set in. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's manufacturing index fell nearly 26 points to minus 20. A gauge of prices paid rose to 44.9, a two-year high. Another index of prices received also advanced to the highest since 2023. Separately, confidence among US homebuilders slid this month to the lowest level since August and Canadian home sales in February dropped to the lowest level since November 2023.

Today's Must Reads

  • Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping would visit Washington soon, as trade tensions build between the world's two largest economies.
  • Volkswagen has been wanting to build more cars in North America. Now, as Trump embarks on a trade war that's roiled the global auto industry, the German carmaker's calculus has grown far more complicated.
  • India's trade talks with the US should yield favorable results, a top New Delhi official said, striking an optimistic tone just weeks before Trump's reciprocal tariffs kick in.
  • Global CEOs including Qualcomm's Cristiano Amon and Saudi Aramco's Amin Nasser will travel to Beijing for an annual gathering of top executives, with some expected to meet President Xi Jinping and other top leaders. Meanwhile, Chinese consumption, investment and industrial production exceeded estimates to start the year.
  • The Trump administration could slap new tariffs on Vietnamese goods as a tool to rebalance trade between the US and the Southeast Asian Country, US-Asean Business Council President and Chief Executive Officer Ted Osius said at a Hanoi briefing.
  • Chinese authorities have begun looking into CK Hutchison's sale of its overseas port businesses amid signs that Beijing is unhappy that the Hong Kong conglomerate divested its Panama operations under US pressure.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Planned tariffs by the Trump administration pose "varying risks" to companies in Southeast and South Asia, with those in the automotive, steel, chemicals and business-services sectors most exposed to reduced demand and increased costs, according to Moody's Ratings.
  • Trump's tariff campaign is likely to worsen inflation and raise the bar for Japanese companies to invest in the US, defying the president's aim to lure investment and revive American manufacturing, according to the chair of the Japan External Trade Organization.
  • For Bloomberg Economics trade coverage: BECO MODELS TRADE
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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