Thursday, March 20, 2025

Supply Lines: Irish exports

President Donald Trump has made it very clear he wants to change "unfair" trade balances, singling out countries with which the US maintains
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President Donald Trump has made it very clear he wants to change "unfair" trade balances, singling out countries with which the US maintains wide deficits.

So it was only a matter of time before one of Europe's biggest imbalances and a relative newcomer atop the list caught his attention.

Ireland's trade surplus with the US is one of the largest of any member of European Union. Buoyed by pharmaceuticals, Ireland exported €72.6 billion worth of goods to the US last year, up 34% on 2023, according to statistics office estimates. That adds up to a trade surplus in goods of €50.1 billion.

Playing an outsized role in those exports is the harbor town of Kinsale, but it's no longer a port and garrison for trade battles waged by navies centuries ago. It is home to a sprawling campus where Eli Lilly produces an active ingredient for its blockbuster Mounjaro and Zepbound drugs.

What's made in Kinsale goes to the US for a second step, before being sent to one of two further US facilities for finishing, boosting Ireland's exports to the US. (Read the full story here.)

"This beautiful island of 5 million people has got the entire US pharmaceutical industry in its grasp," Trump said at a White House meeting with Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin for the annual Irish government visit to the White House for St Patrick's Day last week.

While saying he "does not want to do anything to hurt Ireland," Trump insisted that the trade relationship must be based on "fairness."

US Outreach

To help spread the word about the mutual benefits of transatlantic commercial harmony, a group of Irish politicians and business people spent much of last week around St Patrick's Day in the US participating in a key sector for services trade: business tourism.

Read More: EU Open to Talks With Trump on Tariffs, Ireland's Harris Says

In the US state of Georgia, local leaders from Wexford in southeastern Ireland met a week ago with officials at the Port of Savannah. It's run by the Georgia Ports Authority, which also oversees the Port of Brunswick, one of the nation's busiest gateways for autos and heavy industrial vehicles. Trump is threatening higher tariffs on US car imports.

With a €94 million expansion finished in 2022, Ireland's Port of Cork is reaching markets for pharmaceuticals and other products shipped to North Carolina and to Indiana, where Eli Lilly is based. 

Ireland is currently Indiana's largest import source, with shipments valued at $20.9 billion, according to Conor Mowlds, chief commercial officer at the Port of Cork.

An Irish delegation at the Port of Savannah last week/Source: Georgia Ports Authority Source: Georgia Ports Authority

Yet Ireland's well-honed strategy of relying on the soft power of personal engagement and the large diaspora in the US is unlikely to shield it.

Ireland's economy is built — and thrives — upon its attractiveness to US multinationals, playing host to the European headquarters of companies including Apple, Salesforce and Intel.

Read More: Ireland's Outlook Raised to Positive by S&P on Tax Receipts

If Washington slaps broader levies on EU goods of even 10%, which is at the lower end of the spectrum floated, they would still have an impact and the country's central bank has revised its economic outlook down citing an unprecedented rise in geopolitical uncertainty.

  • On the new episode of the Trumponomics podcast: Bloomberg Economics Chief Economist Tom Orlik explains the Trump administration is possibly more strategic than it seems. He offers historical perspective on Trump's moves and says the bumpy road may take the economy to a better long-term destination. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

—Jennifer Duggan in Dublin

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Today's Big Take | In Indonesia, dozens of garment factories have closed due to cheap imports from China, resulting in significant job losses and economic devastation. The influx of Chinese goods is not only affecting Indonesia but also other emerging economies, with China's exports expected to continue growing and potentially wiping out jobs in the textiles and apparel industry. Governments are under pressure to take action, but it's a delicate balancing act as they try to navigate relations with China and the US while preventing job losses and protecting their local industries.

Today's Must Reads

  • The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, with Chair Jerome Powell downplaying mounting growth concerns and the price hits that could be on the way from Trump's aggressive trade war. Meanwhile, the US president called on the Fed to cut interest rates.
  • Trump said India will be hit by like-for-like tariffs starting April 2, even as officials in New Delhi scurry to appease Washington by reducing trade barriers.  
  • Chinese companies cut back on the small packages they shipped to the US last month, as President Donald Trump looks to close off the trade and impose tariffs on all imports from China. The US government is expected to cancel the "de minimis" exemption eventually.
  • Hyundai Motor's CEO shrugged off uncertainties around Trump's approach toward electric vehicles and domestic production, saying the company's "localization strategy" in the US will help mitigate the impact of any policy change. Separately, the CEO of Mercedes-Benz is optimistic about the company's new electric vehicle.
  • The UK is planning to appoint more business figures to diplomatic roles as part of a new drive to diversify Britain's trade and economic relationships. 
  • Swiss watch exports' downward trajectory resumed in February after a one-month respite, with all main markets seeing a decline.
  • Despite protectionist policies in the US, Canada and the European Union, Chinese automakers are expected to continue their growth, with global market share projected to climb to 13% in 2030 from 3% today.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Canada's January potash exports hit a record as US buyers anticipated tariffs, a trend that may extend with the Trump administration's policy still fluid, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Trump's plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2 could be legally justified under multiple statutes, though court challenges are likely given that the laws authorizing tariffs haven't been used like this before, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • For Bloomberg Economics trade coverage: BECO MODELS TRADE
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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