Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Supply Lines: From chips to ships

A White House push to curb China's maritime dominance and exert more influence over critical shipping lanes looks to be gaining momentum. He
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A White House push to curb China's maritime dominance and exert more influence over critical shipping lanes looks to be gaining momentum. 

Here's a recap of what's happening:

  • The administration has proposed charging cargo carriers million-dollar fees when their Chinese-linked ships visit a US port
  • The Federal Maritime Commission this month began a wide-ranging investigation into countries or companies impeding trade moving through maritime chokepoints
  • Trump has supported a deal between a Hong Kong billionaire to sell his Panama Canal port assets to a consortium led by Blackrock
  • Trump's pursuit of Greenland is motivated in part by a need to project power over shipping through the Arctic where Russia and China are active

The man just picked to lead the US Maritime Administration may offer clues about where things are headed. The Department of Transportation agency known as MARAD is responsible for waterborne transport — and for maintaining a fleet of cargo ships in reserve to support combat vessels during war or national emergencies.

According to a congressional notice posted Monday, retired Navy Captain Brent Sadler is Trump's pick to lead the US Maritime Administration. Sadler authored a chapter on commercial maritime strategy in the new book, Returning from Ebb Tide: Renewing the United States Commercial Maritime Enterprise. 

Five years ago, then-MARAD chief Mark Buzby told a congressional panel that the merchant fleet was unlikely to be able to deliver in a conflict. "Things have not improved since," Sadler wrote. "Of the more more than 80,000 ships arriving at American ports, fewer than 200 are US-flagged, -owned, and -crewed."

Sadler, now a senior fellow at theHeritage Foundation specializing in maritime security and technology, said the US has spent the last three decades "cashing in a post-Cold War peace dividend" which has left the nation without needed ships.

China's State Control

"The primary task is to outperform the principal threat: China's heavily subsidized and government-directed shipbuilding and shipping industries," Sadler wrote.

Read More: Top Shipping Trade Group Says Trump Port-Fee Plan Will Hurt US

To get there, Sadler advocates a "brave new multimodal world" that merges air, sea and overland shipping. Some of his proposals include "smart" containers made of lighter materials, cargo-carrying drones, and huge ships that hardly ever make port calls because they have their cargo transferred offshore.

If confirmed by the Senate, Sadler will join an administration already focused on maritime strategy.

Just two months into Trump's term, the White House has already set up an office charged with reviving the maritime and shipbuilding industry. Housed inside the National Security Council, former House Armed Services stafferIan Bennitt leads the maritime directorate, while Jerry Hendrix, a retired Navy Captain and naval historian, serves as senior counselor. 

Laura Curtis in Los Angeles

Bloomberg's tariff tracker follows all the twists and turns of global trade wars. Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Gilded trade | Maybe this is what Trump meant by a new "golden age" for the US. The rush of gold bullion deliveries into New York depositories from overseas will likely keep the US goods-trade deficit close to a record. February merchandise-trade data on Thursday are likely to show the deficit grew to almost $162 billion, according to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets. Stockpiles have surged in recent months on concerns precious metals may be included in the Trump administration's broad tariffs. That's also boosted prices and created an arbitrage opportunity that incentivized traders to get their hands on physical bullion. A similar phenomenon is playing out with silver.

Today's Must Reads

  • US tariffs on copper imports could be coming within several weeks, months earlier than the deadline for a decision — news that sent the price of copper traded in New York to a record. Meanwhile, Trump said he plans to limit exceptions to his broader tariff push. 
  • China is running a trade surplus that the world economy can't "live with," former US President Bill Clinton's top trade official said.
  • Canada and India are taking steps to cool an escalation of diplomatic tensions as both sides look to strengthen trade ties to counter US tariff threats. Separately, China's ambassador warned the Canadian government against using it as a "bargaining chip" in trade negotiations with the US.
  • Vietnam's finance ministry has put forward a proposal to cut preferential import tariffs on a range of products including LNG, cars, wood and agricultural products, as the nation seeks to avoid the imminent threat of US tariffs.
  • The US said Russia and Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea, even as the Kremlin said its involvement would depend on a series of preconditions, including sanctions relief.
  •  In this Talking Transports podcast, Brett Merritt, president of Cummins' Engine Business, shares his insights about navigating the North American truck market during this pivotal time.
  • On the new episode of Trumponomics: What happens when US economic data can't be trusted? With Trump firing independent regulators and killing off advisory committees, David Wilcox, director of US economic research for Bloomberg Economics, and Molly Smith, editor on the US economy, discuss why reliable data is at risk. Listen on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Coming Up

Trump is upending international markets with his aggressive and unpredictable escalation of tariffs on allies and enemies alike. What's really the message behind his trade wars? Join us for a Live Q&A on March 27 at 10 a.m. EDT.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Taiwan has to respond to higher risks of trade disputes with the US cautiously as the island has the sixth-largest trade surplus with the US, according to a written report from the central bank.
  • Brazil's government has reportedly shelved a proposal to tax big tech firms in part because of fears that the tax could be seen as a response to Trump's tariffs threats. 
  • For Bloomberg Economics trade coverage: BECO MODELS TRADE
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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