Thursday, March 6, 2025

Next China: Xi's troops in Europe?

A once-wild idea gains traction.
View in browser
Bloomberg

Next China is now exclusively for Bloomberg.com subscribers. As a loyal reader, we'll keep sending it to you for a limited time. If you'd like to continue receiving Next China, and gain unlimited digital access to all of Bloomberg.com, we invite you to subscribe now at a special rate.

Hi, this is John Liu in Beijing, where today my colleague Colum Murphy put a question of global significance to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The venue was the press briefing China's top diplomat traditionally holds during the National People's Congress. The question Colum asked was under what circumstances China would consider sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine to guarantee an end of hostilities with Russia?

Let's just dwell a bit on this rather amazing concept.

When the war started three years ago, raising the idea of soldiers from the People's Liberation Army landing in Europe to keep the peace would have incited laughter. There probably would have been some giggling a few weeks ago.

But a month after US President Donald Trump phoned Russia's Vladimir Putin without first alerting America's allies in Europe and a week after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was unceremoniously asked to leave the White House after that big blowup, the idea of Chinese troops is now a very serious one.

There are several reasons for that. The first is that the Trump administration has made clear American soldiers won't be involved. Second, it's hard to imagine Russia agreeing to European, and certainly not NATO, troops on the ground. And third is the complicated relationship China has with both sides.

Russia needs China's support. Putin's decision to brief Chinese President Xi Jinping by phone just over a week after his call with Trump illustrates that.

What about the UK, France and Germany? However contentious their relationships with China may have been in the past, the current state of affairs may well motivate Europe's biggest economies to reconsider. It's an idea that James Stavridis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, broached this week in an article he described as one he never dreamed that he'd one day write.

The unthinkable thing that's now become a serious possibility is the US leaving NATO, according to Stavridis, who goes on in his piece to imagine how Europe might react if America did pull out. As it pertains to China, he believes European leaders would seek greater economic and perhaps even military cooperation with Beijing as a potential hedge against a growing relationship between Washington and Moscow.

Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, at his annual press briefing.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

So with that context, how did Wang respond to Colum? Well, not directly.

Wang started his answer by emphasizing that China has been pushing for peace ever since the outbreak of hostilities and that Beijing supports all efforts to end the fighting. He continued by reiterating China's long-held positions on the war, including that the causes of the conflict are complicated, i.e., let's not only blame Russia.

The closest Wang came to addressing the question of Chinese peacekeepers in Europe was by saying that Beijing was willing to contribute based on the wishes of those involved toward creating a fair and durable peace.

That's a reasonable enough answer, even if it's not quite headline-grabbing material. After all, no one has publicly asked China for peacekeepers yet, so it might well have come across as presumptuous for Beijing to just go ahead and offer them. And to be sure, Ukraine may not even be wildly keen on the idea given Beijing's support for Moscow.

Worth noting is that Wang also didn't rule out the idea of Chinese peacekeepers either, which was in line the overall message he seemed to be communicating throughout the briefing. In a world being rocked by American policy pivots, Wang wanted his audience to see China as a force for stability.

What We're Reading, Listening to and Watching:

Stuck in the Middle With You

Xi has urged calm in the face of US tariffs but for many Chinese manufacturers already operating on razor-thin margins, that's easier said than done.

Fear and anxiety grip entrepreneurs like Sunny Hu, whose company in Hangzhou makes patio sets and sells mostly to American retailers.

"I'm speechless," she said. Her firm is negotiating with US businesses to share the extra costs. 

The tariffs have sparked a debate over who will foot the bill. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Chinese manufacturers would "eat" the higher prices but exporters in China are refusing to absorb the full levies of over 20%.

US retailers aren't in a much better position to absorb the expenses either. Walmart has requested up to 10% price cuts from some Chinese suppliers per tariff round to keep prices low for customers, Bloomberg News reported. 

If the first trade war is any indication, this deadlock will likely result in higher prices for US consumers. Major retailers like Target and Best Buy have warned shoppers to expect price hikes.

Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank, estimates that tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico could translate into $1.1 trillion in extra costs for US importers over the next decade. Read more on who foots the tariff bill.

Right now it's unclear if the tit-for-tat tariffs will stop soon. Chinese officials appear to be still working on establishing a communication channel to resolve the trade disputes.

Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said he sent letters last month to Trump's new secretary of commerce and trade representative, hoping to start dialogue "on equal footing" to address each other's concerns.

Wang repeated this week that China views fentanyl as nothing more than a pretext used by the US to impose tariffs.

"China's tradition is to respect in return for respect, and respond in the same way if the other side acts disrespectfully," he added.

So while Beijing and Washington are digging in for a fight, businesses from the two sides are stuck in the middle.

Big Outlay

$100 billion
That's how much new investment TSMC is planning in the US to support Trump's push for more domestic manufacturing. The amount is so large that TSMC's CEO,  C.C. Wei, had to reassure the public that it won't affect its investments in Taiwan.

Behind the Great Firewall

A weekly look at the big water cooler news in China.

That dramatic clash between Trump and Zelenskiy sparked debate in China this week, and people were surprisingly divided over who to support. 

The news was a top trending item on Weibo, where some criticized Zelenskiy as overly ambitious.

"You have no cards in your hand, yet you keep calling for an all-in," one user wrote, garnering about 14,000 likes. The comment echoed Trump's remark to Zelenskiy, when he said Ukraine has no leverage without US support. 

On WeChat, China's all-in-one messaging app, the comment section of the US embassy was flooded with criticism of Trump. 

One user wrote: "What's worse than an invader is someone who supports the invader." The comment racked up about 12,000 likes. 

The contrast shows how public opinion on Russia's invasion of Ukraine remains deeply divided, even three years later. Some of that is down to Beijing's support for Moscow since the war started, with the Chinese government still referring to it as a crisis rather than a war. 

While Beijing upholds a "no limits" partnership with Moscow, some people remain skeptical of Russia, recalling events like the 1969 border clashes when the Soviet Union threatened to launch a nuclear strike on China. 

Some are of the view that the US-led NATO expansion left Moscow with no choice, ultimately placing the blame for the war on the military bloc. 

Chinese state media has also been promoting its own stance on the issue. A series of commentaries published this week have carried a stronger message — that being a US ally is now more dangerous than ever. 

China Daily wrote in an editorial that the Trump-Zelenskiy blowup should "serve as a wake-up call."

"The era of relying on US security guarantees may be coming to an end," the state media outlet wrote. "The concept of a 'US-led West' is receding into history."

Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? There's more where that came from. Browse all our weekly and daily emails to get even more insights from your Bloomberg.com subscription.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Next China newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices

No comments:

Post a Comment

ClankApp - BTC - 228,635,230 $ just move.

ClankApp Transaction alert for BTC New large transaction for BITCOIN blockchain concerning BT...