Friday, March 21, 2025

Next Africa: Rebels on the move

Congo peace talks are fraught with risk
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Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

After six months of refusing to meet face to face, the presidents of Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda were convinced this week by Qatar's Emir to break bread.

Paul Kagame and Felix Tshisekedi sat down in Doha and committed to a ceasefire in eastern Congo, where an eruption of a decades-long conflict has displaced nearly a million people and killed thousands more.

There was just one problem: the M23 rebel group that Congo is fighting and Rwanda supports wasn't there — and its leader says the group won't cease its assault on the mineral-rich country.

Kagame, left, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Tshisekedi in Doha. Source: Qatari foreign ministry

Fighting has simmered in eastern Congo since the mid-1990s in the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide and truces were continuously flouted.

It's possible, analysts say, that Tshisekedi and Kagame are simply trying to appear to be cooperating on achieving a peaceful resolution without having to make any real concessions. 

Tuesday's meeting happened soon after M23 pulled out of planned talks in Angola, blaming the European Union's decision to sanction its, and Rwandan military leadership.

WATCH: Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst for Francophone Africa at Control Risks, speaks with Jennifer Zabasajja on the developments in Congo.

That left the rebels to continue seizing territory in the North and South Kivu regions of Congo. The group has more than doubled the amount of territory under its control over the past year, according to UN investigators.

Having taken over the key hubs of Goma, Bukavu and Walikale (captured this week), choking off supplies from some of the world's richest deposits of tin ore and coltan — minerals used in semiconductors and mobile phones — M23 is firmly entrenched in eastern Congo.

It's unlikely the Qatari-brokered talks will alter that reality. — Simon Marks

Key stories and opinion:
Surprise Meeting in Qatar Spurs Rwanda, Congo Ceasefire Vow  
Rwanda-Backed Rebels Expand Control of Congo Despite Ceasefire
Rwanda-Backed Rebels Pull Out of Congo Talks Over EU Sanctions  
How Rebel Advances in Congo Threaten War With Rwanda: QuickTake 
Sanctions on Rwanda Alone Won't Stop War in DRC: Justice Malala

News Roundup

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu imposed a state of emergency in Rivers State in the oil-producing Niger Delta, after explosions rocked a crude pipeline in the area that handles about 15% of Nigeria's oil-export flows and is pivotal to shipments of the Bonny grade. It's not clear what caused the blast but the West African country's petroleum assets have been plagued by sabotage and vandalism for years. Separately, a Nigerian oil company that's controlled by a computer-services firm and outbid TotalEnergies and Chevron for blocks last year is among emerging local companies taking over the nation's crude fields.

Oil pipelines running through Okrika, a town in the Niger Delta. Photographer: Pius Utomi Ekpei/AFP/Getty Images

Ethiopia may consider reshuffling the interim government in the volatile Tigray region where factional wrangling is threatening to reignite a conflict that could draw in neighboring Eritrea. A splinter group of the Tigray People's Liberation Front led by Debretsion Gebremichael is demanding that regional President Getachew Reda step down. The dissident faction has taken control of several cities, including Tigray capital Mekelle and another close to the border with Eritrea, and is accused of seeking an alliance with the neighboring state. Meanwhile, Ethiopia granted its first investment banking licenses to two local firms in the nation's latest effort to liberalize the tightly controlled economy.

The US is stalling the distribution of $2.6 billion in climate finance to South Africa, stoking concerns the money might be blocked outright, sources say. At a meeting this month, US representatives prevented the World Bank-linked Climate Investment Funds from approving a $500 million disbursement to South Africa. Those funds would have unlocked a further $2.1 billion from multilateral development banks and other sources of financing. The development has the potential to deepen a fallout between the nations.

Wind turbines in Hopefield, South Africa. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg

South Africa is nearing a deal to provide funding to ArcelorMittal's local unit and ensure steel mills seen as crucial for the nation's economic-growth plans remain open, sources say. The government may offer initial support of about 500 million rand ($28 million) to pay steelworkers over a period of six to eight months, and is also discussing additional financing through the state-owned IDC. The mills provide so-called long products including steel grades that can't currently be made by local rivals.

Sudan's army retook the presidential palace in the capital, Khartoum, from the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group that it's fought in a brutal civil war for two years. The military hasn't gained control of the entire city, with RSF fighters still controlling parts of the south and east, army spokesman Hassan Ibrahim said. Sudan's war has raged since 2023 and the RSF took most of the capital, causing tens of thousands of people to flee. The group has been beaten back across much of central and southern Sudan in recent months.

Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan in Port Sudan on Feb. 17. Photographer: AFP/Getty Images

The military-led West African nations of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have announced their withdrawal from the Organisation Internationale de la Francophonie, which brings together French-speaking countries. The juntas, which have broken ties with former colonial power France, said the organization no longer supports their national goals. Based in Paris, the OIF promotes the French language as well as political, educational, economic and cultural cooperation among 93 member-nations. The group is "becoming a guided political instrument," the three countries claim.

Next Africa Quiz — Which African nation's president survived a reported assassination attempt this week? Send your answers to gbell16@bloomberg.net.

Past & Prologue

Data Watch

  • South Africa's central bank paused its interest-rate-cutting cycle to assesses the impact that US President Donald Trump's trade policies may have on inflation. The benchmark rate stayed at 7.5%, while inflation was steady at 3.2% in February, below the 4.5% target.
  • Kenya's failure to meet key benchmarks in its final review under an International Monetary Fund program was the reason it forfeited a payment of about $850 million, sources say.
  • Vitol Group agreed to buy into more Eni assets in Africa, acquiring stakes in projects in Ivory Coast and the Republic of Congo for at least $1.65 billion.
  • Ghana's embattled cocoa board has started a review of its 32 billion-cedi ($2 billion) debt pile, with the new chief executive vowing to shore up its balance sheet to better support producers amid falling cocoa output.
Bloomberg's Mumbi Gitau joins Jennifer Zabasajja to discuss the pressures facing the cocoa industry in this week's Next Africa podcast.

Coming Up

  • March 25 Lesotho interest-rate decision, South Africa non-farm payrolls for the fourth quarter, first-quarter consumer-confidence data & the central bank's leading economic indicator
  • March 26 Mozambique interest-rate decision
  • March 27 Zambia inflation for March & trade balance for February, South Africa producer inflation data for February, central bank's quarterly bulletin & start of a two-day conference on inflation targeting
  • March 28 Ghana interest-rate decision, fourth-quarter GDP for Botswana and Mauritius, South Africa budget data for February

Quote of the Week

"I want to thank Mr. Trump, actually. I think he's slapped us not on one cheek but on both cheeks — we should have been hammered a long time ago."
Hakainde Hichilema
Zambian president

Hichilema was commenting on the US decision to halt billions of dollars in aid to African nations. 

While leaders says the move is a wake up call to be more self-reliant, most haven't yet risen to the challenge.

Last Word

Finland's unbroken streak as the world's happiest country continued for an eighth year while the US fell to 24th place, its lowest level yet in the global ranking, according to research published by the University of Oxford. Mauritius was the highest-ranked African nation at 78, and only eight nations from the continent made it into the top 100. Sierra Leone was one place above Afghanistan at the bottom. Country rankings are based on a three-year average of a population's self-assessment of its quality of life. New findings from the report include that "belief in the kindness of others is much more closely tied to happiness than previously thought," the researchers said. 

We'll be back in your inbox with the next edition on Tuesday. Send any feedback to gbell16@bloomberg.net.

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