| been meaning to write long-form thoughts but have been more focused on upgrading systems. a lot of folks think to themselves they'll quit now and come back when things get better.
it never works that way. if you do that, then you're always likely to come in at the top and exit at the bottom. This is THE time to put in the work—to reflect and work on your mental models, your systems, and refine the people you want to follow. bearish phases are when gains are made; they are realized in bullish phases. dont be too hard on yourselves either. all of us make mistakes. crypto moves at 100x the speed of any other tradfi market. there is NO way majority of participants haven't fumbled generational wealth on a regular basis this cycle. the only difference is the seasoned ones find a way to make peace and keep adapting.
I tweet and reply to comments with my swing/positional view so it's easier to follow with context. I try to time it as best as I can but avoid scalp views, as that might not add value to you readers. the one thing I havent done in the past is give vocal bearish views at pivot points. the only reason I havent done it is, learning from experience and also seeing others
its always negative ev for the caller to do it publicly. during the bull, at best you are a party pooper, worst you caused it. although I do feel I need to do give bearish views too at the right time to keep the consistency.
will think of ways to do that. if this is a counter trend rally or not will only known in hindsight. price wise btc in 90s. time wise by april.
we will know if we are in 2021 or 2022 part of the cycle. this cycle has been brutal on HODLERS and only rewarded traders.
so theres no need to preemptively think its going to change all of a sudden. if I have to look back and reflect my biggest mistake was NOT pivoting soon enough to a traders-market dynamics. in the past once the winners were known they went on to climax till the cycle end. but this time around mid way (signs started to appear from Q2 2024) winners kept changing.
I am not just referring to rotations. they were vicious but
also the fact this cycle a lot of OGs and participants came to a realization that
barring bitcoin, stablecoins and speculative use case theres not much being built. many are calling for rotations from memes to utility but by now I am sure you know most of these 'utility' is also a meme.
life will be a lot simpler if you just viewed all this from a traders mindset instead of a ideological one. you just long where the flows are. period.
ive seen a lot of intellectual thesis on Alts. on how their bags are different then the entire market.
none of it will matter if overall market isnt trending upwards. just look back on all bear years. barring rarest couple of exceptions, entire market went down 90%.
99% never made it up back up.
it did not matter how cracked the team is, how good the tokenomics is, nor if they solved world hunger. but its a great time to keep an eye on those 0 to 1 plays now.
when the tide turns they will move the hardest. also note, this is not some bear or doom post. point is
crypto is here to stay. your bags might not. adapt accordingly. If I asked a average crypto bro - do you think those monkey picture or other high profile NFTs from 2021 will ever comeback.
without skipping a beat they will answer NO. but same person likely to say their alt /meme bags definitely will make new ATH. some might. most wont.
when you see the signs. you need to prune / reshuffle your bags. thats why its important to have systems in place.
once you realize trend is getting exhausted you want a definitive way of making a decision. NO price is too high during bull phase and no price too low during bear.
a lot folks focus a lot on is this a bull market? or a bear market?
dont. have a broad idea of expansion / contraction. this will vastly improve your execution. which is the only thing that matters. think about it. does it really matter if we are in a bull market if your bags are down 90% from the highs?
speaking of systems lets see how they have been performing below are sol doge fartcoin hype charts.... was particularly impressed with system catching the HYPE reversal.  sol  fartcoin  doge  hype see you in the next one. | 
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