Wednesday, March 5, 2025

Germany, the sleeping giant, awakes

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here.

Few nations have as many demands placed upon them as Germany. Mostly they go unmet.

With its massive spending splurge, Berlin has just wildly exceeded all expectations.

It looks like a pivotal moment for Europe.

Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's announcement yesterday of hundreds of billions of euros for defense is a game changer not just for Germany but the whole continent as it faces Russia's aggression — and a hole where the transatlantic alliance stood.

WATCH: Merz vows "whatever it takes" to defend Germany.

Germany is already NATO's largest spender in dollar terms after the US. Yet it was noticeably quiet during this past week's European diplomatic push to rally behind Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy after his treatment at the hands of Donald Trump.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is on his way out and Merz is not yet in. Together, though, their parties have agreed to overturn years of excessive fiscal prudence by amending the constitution to exempt defense and security outlays.

They also plan to launch a €500 billion ($536 billion) infrastructure fund to invest in things like transportation and energy grids.

If it can pass the Bundestag, this sets up Germany to at last meet its potential as Europe's true heavyweight in economic, political and security terms.

Trump's approach to Europe in general and Ukraine in particular appears to have been the tipping point. The US president's decision to withhold military aid from Kyiv showed how stark the transatlantic divide is, and demanded action, in Merz's words.

Freed of self-imposed fiscal constraints, Germany has the financial firepower and some of Europe's most accomplished defense contractors that could make a difference, albeit not overnight.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski once said that he feared German power less than German inaction.

The sleeping giant is now awake. And all Europe is watching what it chooses to do from here.— Alan Crawford

Global Must Reads

Trump warned Americans in his address to Congress of economic discomfort ahead for the US economy over his plan to raise "trillions and trillions" in revenue through the biggest tariff increases in a century and rebalance trading relationships he called unfair. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a pathway for tariff relief on Mexican and Canadian goods covered by North America's free-trade agreement could be announced as soon as today.

WATCH: Trump says reciprocal tariffs will kick in on April 2. 

Leaders of Arab countries endorsed Egypt's Gaza reconstruction plan that "preserves the Palestinian people's right to rebuild their homeland and ensures it remains on its land," President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi announced at a summit yesterday, in a move to counter Trump's controversial proposals. Israel said it's giving Hamas "several days" to rethink terms for a new Gaza ceasefire, raising the prospect of further pressure tactics or a resumption of war.

Russia agreed to assist the Trump administration in communicating with Iran on issues including the Islamic Republic's nuclear program and its support for regional anti-US proxies, sources said. Trump relayed that interest to President Vladimir Putin in a phone call in February and top US and Russian officials discussed the matter at talks in Saudi Arabia days later.

US and Russian envoys meeting in Riyadh on Feb. 18. Photographer: Evelyn Hockstein/AFP/Getty Images

Trump said he received an "important letter" from Zelenskiy looking to smooth over their clash at a contentious Oval Office meeting, but held back from lifting a US pause on military aid or announcing a revived minerals deal. In a social-media post, Zelenskiy voiced regret over how the meeting with Trump played out and said he was ready to sign the deal.

Opposition deputies threw smoke grenades in Serbia's national assembly, disrupting a session set to confirm Prime Minister Miloš Vučević's resignation and a debate on laws intended to ease months of anti-government protests. At least three deputies were injured in the brawl, according to Speaker of Parliament Ana Brnabić, an ally of President Aleksandar Vučić, who called the opposition lawmakers a "terrorist gang."

WATCH: Chaos in the Serbian parliament as the prime minister resigns. Source: Serbian Parliament

The Trump administration is giving Chevron until April 3 to stop producing oil in Venezuela, delivering a heavy blow to President Nicolás Maduro's autocratic regime. 

The Democratic Republic of Congo has offered the US exclusive access to critical minerals and infrastructure projects in exchange for security assistance as it battles a rebellion backed by neighboring Rwanda.

Tunisia put dozens of people on trial for treason, including prominent opponents of President Kais Saied, ramping up an unprecedented crackdown that's drawn rebukes from the United Nations.

Relatives of detainees outside court in Tunis yesterday. Photographer: Fethi Belaid/AFP/Getty Images

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Chart of the Day

Trump called for ending a bipartisan $52 billion semiconductor-subsidy program that's spurred more than $400 billion in investments from companies like TSMC and Intel. He called the Chips and Science Act a "horrible, horrible thing," and implored House Speaker Mike Johnson to get rid of the legislation. Vice President JD Vance, whose home state of Ohio won a massive Intel project thanks to the legislation, stood up to show his support for its revocation.

And Finally

California Governor Gavin Newsom ordered almost 100,000 state workers to return to their offices four days a week starting in July. The announcement is one of the larger state mandates since the Covid-19 pandemic upended work habits. It follows a White House directive to bring back federal workers full-time, while major companies such as Salesforce and JPMorgan Chase have taken similar steps to have employees return.

The downtown skyline in Los Angeles. Photographer: Kyle Grillot/Bloomberg

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