Tuesday, March 11, 2025

Finally, a ceasefire in Ukraine is on the table

Now, about that Nobel Peace Prize...
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Today's Agenda

Ukraine Is Down

This just in: Ukraine says it's ready to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire. Still waiting on Russia's response, but it sounds … promising? Though, promising doesn't exactly feel like the right word.

On TV, President Donald Trump is happy to claim that nobody's been tougher than him on Russia, but Marc Champion says that couldn't be further from the truth: Nobody — including Trump — has been weaker.

"The ledger on Trump's toughness toward Russia looks dramatically different since he retook the White House," he says. In the span of less than three months, Trump has turned the public psyche against Ukraine and Europe while capitulating to Russian President Vladimir Putin at every turn. "Putin has made any ceasefire talks conditional on a number of elements, the core of which is no NATO membership, acceptance of his territorial annexations, plus unconstitutional elections aimed at sowing division in Ukraine and removing Zelenskiy from power," writes Marc. "Trump has either granted or pressed for all of these conditions."

Ukraine, on the other hand, was stripped of military and intelligence support after Zelenskiy asked for security guarantees to insure against further invasions. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated the US will reverse that decision now that Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire, the message is clear: "Trump feels a personal bond with Russia's leader, and that this has strengthened since his first term," Marc explains.

Writing in The Atlantic today, Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton said the president's approach to foreign policy centers on one question: "What benefits Donald Trump?" If this was some elaborate ploy for the president to get a Nobel Peace Prize, I don't think it'll work out. To win that, Andreas Kluth says he'd have to lower the risk of nuclear Armageddon. Good luck getting your buddy Putin on board with that.

Fry Wars

Riddle me this. The US has so many problems on its plate — including a 35% jump in measles cases — and yet the head of the nation's Department of Health and Human Services is busy shilling a French fry recipe on Fox News? Make it make sense:

Steak 'n Shake is the new Goya.

According to Robert F. Kennedy Jr., seed oil is the root of all evil. Which is why he spent his Monday afternoon at a Florida Steak 'n Shake with Sean Hannity taste-testing their new "RFK'd fries," which are cooked in 100% beef tallow. "People are raving about these French fries," he told Hannity. Rave all you want, but if you think we're going to solve the "epidemic of chronic disease" by deep-frying potatoes in a scalding vat of melted animal fat, you've got another thing coming for you.

Not to mention, nutrition experts are totally fine with seed oils! But you know what they're not fine with? The fact that millions of American families suffer from food insecurity. And — shocker! — the current administration could make things worse.

"There's a group of Republican lawmakers in the White House and Congress who don't believe it's the government's job to feed people," says Mary Ellen Klas. "The anti-feeding group includes Russell Vought, one of the architects of Project 2025, who has called for cutting $400 billion in food stamps and is president Donald Trump's choice to lead the Office of Management and Budget. It also includes the House Ways and Means Committee, which has proposed a slate of changes that would leave millions of kids with less to eat, among them: cutting $12 billion for school breakfast and lunch over the next 10 years."

Luckily, Mary Ellen says Republicans at the state level aren't in favor of such cruel tactics. "As rising food prices and tariffs (and even the threat of tariffs) are making the weekly grocery bill for many working families unaffordable, legislatures in several red states are quietly working to expand hunger programs," she writes. In Arkansas, a bill to provide free school breakfast to all students was signed by Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders — the same woman who was loyal to Trump when he cut SNAP — earlier this year. It's easy to understand why she had a change of heart: Nearly one in five households in her state can't afford groceries.

Lawmakers at the local level are the ones getting calls from constituents who say their grocery bills are too high. But the folks making decisions at the top — namely, the Federal Reserve — have the power to change monetary policy. And they're not really paying much attention to food inflation. Since the 1970s, Jonathan Levin says policymakers have focused on "core prices" which exclude food and energy. But, as Jonathan says, "food is critical to consumers' formation of inflation expectations." At the same time, "energy prices bounce all over the place, while food-at-home looks a lot more like core," he writes.

Something's got to change. If it doesn't, Jonathan warns, "households may disengage or lose faith in monetary policy authorities if they see them as callous and out of touch with their experiences."

Another way to lose touch? Stop prioritizing data altogether: Claudia Sahm says the Trump administration's slash-and-burn strategy has claimed another victim: the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee, which was used as a sounding board for the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Economic Analysis. "Putting a low-cost, high-value committee on the chopping block does not bode well for other investments in the official statistics," she writes.

But who needs accurate economic data when you have beef tallow fries, right?! Riiiight.

This is only a slice of our opinion coverage. To unlock every story and get full access to all our columnists, become a Bloomberg.com subscriber.

Woolly Mammoth R&D

Elsewhere in Your Priorities Seem Super Off, you have the scientific community's bizarre plan to resurrect the woolly mammoth using ... mice:

Lara Williams says the recent creation of a "colossal woolly mouse" — along with Elon Musk's dream to colonize Mars — makes her wonder: "Wouldn't the enthusiasm and resources be better devoted to protecting the animals and planet we already have?"

"More than 46,300 species – almost a third of all assessed species – are threatened with extinction thanks to threats such as global warming, habitat loss, invasive species and overexploitation. Yet the gap between current biodiversity finance and future needs has widened to $942 billion," she writes. "The money being devoted to reanimating dead species might better be spent on conservation efforts for the long-suffering animals we have left." Amen, sister! Read the whole thing.

Telltale Charts

In the span of time it takes you to read this newsletter, I bet something new will happen with Canada tariffs. The news is flying by, but here's the gist of what's happened in the past 24 hours:

Canada: Hey, since we're in a trade war, I'm gonna add a 25% surcharge to your electricity.
United States: Ugh, unfair!!! If you're gonna play dirty, we're jacking up steel and aluminum tariffs!!
Canada: Woah, woah, woah. Let's cool down — I'll back off on the electricity stuff, no biggie.
United States: That's cool, thanks. To be nice, we'll reconsider the whole steel and aluminum thing, too.

Tariff uncertainty is all the rage these days, I suppose. But Liam Denning says the US relies on Canada for fuel: "Oil from Alberta is just the kind of heavy, sour stuff for which US refiners thirst." Trying to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in this environment — which Trump's energy secretary is hellbent on doing — "is a bit like filling a couple of jerry cans with fuel while also setting a match to your local gas station," Liam writes.

Yet another item to file under Your Priorities Seem Super Off: The White House wants America to build ships again? Can't picture that happening anytime soon. The Bloomberg Editorial Board says "US shipbuilders have been atrophying for decades; as far back as 1999, they claimed only 0.25% of the global market for cargo ships." We have better chances of resurrecting the woolly mammoth than reviving this long-forgotten industry:

Further Reading

The ICE arrest and detention of Mahmoud Khalil is a major blow to the First Amendment. — Noah Feldman

Trump is the perfect excuse for Japan to confront outdated attitudes about defense. — Gearoid Reidy

The empire of Asia's richest tycoon looks wobbly in the face of Trump's trade policies. — Andy Mukherjee

India's amateur investors are risking it all. Policymakers need to keep a close eye. — Mihir Sharma

Brazilians are dissatisfied with their president's passé governing style. — Juan Pablo Spinetto

Let's be done with leaseholds, homeowners were never meant to be feudal serfs. — Matthew Brooker

ICYMI

Trump is buying a Tesla to help a friend.

DeTrans Awareness Day is a deadly crusade.

Dave Portnoy at the Commerce Department?

Portugal's government collapsed.

Manslaughter trouble over North Sea crash.

Kickers

A house that can get you into Harvard?

Honey, did you drink your pickle juice today?

Psychedelic art in New York City? Trippy.

The vegans are taking over Letterboxd.

Notes: Please send pickle brine and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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