Monday, March 3, 2025

Bracing for Trump’s endgame

With US support in doubt and Ukrainians uncertain for their future, European leaders agreed to forge a "coalition of the willing" to offer broad backing for the government in Kyiv.
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The streets of Kyiv were bustling yesterday in the end-of-winter chill, with well-dressed people strolling along the grand Khreschatyk boulevard to the Maidan.

It's here on Independence Square that mass protests took place in late 2013, triggered by the decision by then-President Viktor Yanukovych to reject an association agreement with the European Union and opt for closer ties to Moscow.

Today, the square is a makeshift shrine to soldiers fallen fighting Russian invaders.

Ukrainians have bitter experience of the world being turned upside down. But US President Donald Trump's determination to rehabilitate Russia through a peace deal over Ukraine's head — a push that led to those angry exchanges with Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the White House on Friday — still confounds many.

Before it broke up in rancor, the Oval Office meeting had been expected to focus on a natural-resources deal with the US offering some kind of vague security guarantees to Ukraine.

Instead, Trump and Vice President JD Vance accused Zelenskiy of "disrespect," and challenged his refusal to accept a ceasefire at any cost. The MAGA camp claimed that Zelenskiy, not Vladimir Putin, was the obstacle to peace.

Ukrainians, though, are standing by their president even as US pressure grows on him to apologize and step aside.

Zelenskiy, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron in London yesterday. Photographer: Justin Tallis/AFP/Bloomberg

With US support now in doubt, European leaders meeting in London yesterday agreed to forge a "coalition of the willing" to offer broad backing for Ukraine in an effort to ensure a durable peace. EU leaders will discuss means of ramping up defense-industry production later this week.

They're also racing to get Zelenskiy back to the table with Trump — something the Ukrainian leader said he's willing to do.

In Kyiv, life goes on. But it's hard to escape the sense that another pivot is coming.

The question is whether it will be to Ukraine's benefit. Alan Crawford

WATCH: Starmer speaks after yesterday's summit in London.

Global Must Reads

While Chinese President Xi Jinping heads into the nation's biggest political huddle of the year this week with his economy finally getting back some swagger, Trump's rising tariffs will test Beijing's ability to sustain that momentum. Thousands of delegates including ministry chiefs and provincial leaders will gather Wednesday in the capital for the parliamentary conclave, where officials will set a bullish growth goal of around 5%, according to most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

Israel's decision to cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza for the first time in more than a year signals a renewed zero-tolerance attitude toward Hamas after the group rejected a US-led proposal to extend a six-week ceasefire that expired yesterday. The Israeli move drew sharp responses from Egypt and Qatar, mediators looking to extend the truce.

Iran's economy minister was removed in a parliamentary vote yesterday as criticism mounts of President Masoud Pezeshkian's government over its handling of the economy and a sharp currency depreciation. Abdolnaser Hemmati's ouster comes seven months into Pezeshkian's tenure, which has been marked by rising hostilities with Israel, a decline in Iran's regional influence, and pressure from hard-line factions blaming his administration for the country's economic troubles.

Argentine President Javier Milei will seek congressional support for a new program his government is negotiating with the International Monetary Fund, the most concrete sign yet that talks are advancing toward the final stages. Investors are keenly watching to see how much money Argentina receives, which will affect how quickly Milei can eliminate currency and capital controls.

Uruguay swore Yamandú Orsi in as president for a five-year term, with the Latin American nation returning a left-wing government to office even as its neighbors shift to the right. Orsi has pledged to revitalize the economy and reduce crime and child poverty.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats won a regional election in the port city of Hamburg, a week after a crushing defeat to Friedrich Merz's conservatives in the national ballot.

Norway needs to avoid revisiting the issue of potential EU membership at a time of growing geopolitical tensions due to the risk of sowing more division in society, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre told us in an interview.

WATCH: Støre discusses European defense and Ukraine with Bloomberg TV's Oliver Crook.

A green fund backed by the United Nations is urging India and China to step up after the Trump administration rescinded $4 billion from the world's biggest climate asset manager.

Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television.

Chart of the Day

Global shippers from AP Moller-Maersk to Cosco, which logged windfall earnings last year, may see a reversal of fortunes in 2025 due to a potential reopening of the Red Sea route and punitive US tariffs. While the impact of the Suez Canal resuming is well understood by shipping companies, they're more dismissive of the tariff threat, with Maersk expecting consumer demand to defy the intensifying trade war.

And Finally

Trump's on-again, off-again tariff threats against Mexico are giving executives in its iconic tequila industry a splitting headache. Many buyers rushed their orders after the US president first postponed the measures by a month so they could get merchandise across the border before the levies came into force. Now that another deadline is approaching, business is drying up until the impact of the tariffs becomes clear. 

A field worker cuts the leaves off a blue agave plant during harvest in the town of Tequila, Mexico. Photographer: Mauricio Palos/Bloomberg

Thanks to the 20 people who answered the Friday quiz and congratulations to Kate Sinatra, who was first to correctly identify Indonesia as the nation where the president ordered regional leaders to bring military uniforms to a weeklong retreat that included 6 a.m. aerobics sessions and roll calls.

More from Bloomberg

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  • Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you
  • Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance
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