*Performance since 7/1/2022. For more details on the performance calculation and methodology of Alpha Picks, click here. |
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► Renewed concerns around tariffs caused major indexes to enter a sea of red, with the S&P 500 down -4.76%, the Dow falling -3.96%, and the Nasdaq falling more than -5%.
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► U.S. Treasury yields advanced, with the 10-year up 4.28%, fueled by Germany's proposal of defense spending that triggered a global bond selloff. Meanwhile, the Japanese 10-year yield surged to near 16-year highs on rate-hike expectations.
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► In the crypto and technology arenas, BTC-USD briefly surged following Trump's crypto reserve plans before retreating, while semiconductor leader NVDA fell 6% on renewed tariff concerns.
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► Geopolitical factors intensified as President Trump confirmed new tariff measures, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model signaled a -2.4% Q1 contraction. This came amid consumer confidence plunging to a 15-month low and ISM manufacturing data indicating rising input costs.
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► February's 172,017 planned layoffs marked a 103% year-over-year surge—largely driven by government sector reductions (62,000 jobs) and cuts in tech and retail—while hiring announcements hit 34,000, the highest for February since 2022.
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Alpha Picks is a rigorous, data-driven model that offers Strong Buy-rated stocks believed to have the highest probability of capital appreciation based on a proprietary quantitative model. Two 'Strong Buy'-rated stocks are selected monthly on the first trading day of the month and the 15th or the closest trading day thereafter. |
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Global Market Movements and Sector Performance |
Trade War Escalation & 'Trumpcession' |
The markets sold off this week as consumer confidence continued to take a notable hit amid escalating trade tensions. President Trump announced levying a 25% duty on $1.5T in imports from Canada and Mexico and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Read More. |
Geopolitical tensions remain a key factor in escalating trade tensions. Revamped tariffs have reignited global recession concerns. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the ongoing situation in Ukraine, where President Trump has paused military aid to press for a peace agreement. Read More. |
Defensive sectors continued to outperform, though 10 out of 11 sectors finished in the red for the week. The Real Estate sector (XLRE) continued to rank highly as mortgage rates experienced their largest weekly decline since September. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.63% as of March 6, down from 6.76% last week. Read More. |
Value Stocks vs. Growth Stocks
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Value stocks continued to outperform growth equities, with investors favoring larger, more established companies over small caps in the uncertain market environment. Read More. |
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Volatile Landscape for Crypto
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The crypto landscape remained volatile as BTC-USD surged 12% to nearly $95K on news of a proposed crypto reserve initiative by Trump, only to see profits taken and prices retrace to around $86,300 before trading around $90,000. Read More. |
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The U.S. dollar exhibited varied performance throughout the week, hitting a four-month low on Wednesday. The DXY index fell by 0.8% to 102.3 as fresh tariff-related uncertainties dented investor sentiment and curtailed expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Read More. |
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As of March 7, the S&P 500 is down about 3% this year so far. If losses hold this month, this could be the worst start to a year since the 2020 global pandemic. Prior to that, it would be the worst 3-month performance since 2018. While that year was rough for stock markets, 2019 ended up being the best year for the S&P since 2013. |
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► FOMC: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects a 1.2% contraction in Q1, and JPMorgan has revised its 2025 U.S. GDP forecast downward to 0.7% from 1.9%.
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► Inflation: Tariff-driven inflation remains a concern following January's CPI increase by 3% YoY. The ISM prices paid component surged to 58.6, signaling renewed inflation pressures driven by increased costs from tariffs.
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► Labor Market: The February jobs report showed 151,000 nonfarm payrolls were added in February, slightly below expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, hinting at a softening labor market.
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| Oracle Corporation (ORCL) |
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| Ferguson Enterprises Inc. (FERG) Viking Holdings Ltd (VIK) |
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| CPI Release Adobe Inc. (ADBE) |
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| Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) DocuSign, Inc. (DOCU) |
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*Performance is as of March 7, 2025. Alpha Picks adds two stocks per month—on the closest business day to the 1st & 15th. Alpha Picks removes stocks based on rating thresholds (i.e., when a rating changes to a sell). Performance is calculated and reported daily using time-weighted returns. For more details on the performance calculation and methodology of Alpha Picks, click here.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Alpha Picks does not take account of your objectives or your financial situation and does not offer any personalized investment advice. Any content and tools on the platform are offered for information purposes only. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker, U.S. investment adviser, or investment bank. |
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