| Germany's election isn't just a matter for Germans. Today's federal election in the world's No. 3 economy will set the tone for the whole European continent — from security and defense to technology policy to relations with China. That, plus Germany's 20th-century history of aggression, helps to explain why few other nations, with the possible exception of the US, have so many expectations thrust upon them. Everyone seems to have an opinion about what Berlin should or should not do. It's a burden of responsibility that politicians inevitably fail. Yet the expectations are especially high this time around, with the Trump administration setting about dismantling the transatlantic alliance that was forged after 1945 and found its voice during the Cold War. In rehabilitating Russia while painting Ukraine as the aggressor in the full-scale war launched by Vladimir Putin three years ago, the US president presents Europe with what could rapidly become an existential threat. Meeting that challenge will fall at Germany's door, too: As the largest NATO spender in dollar terms after the US, Berlin's stance will determine Europe's ability to confront Putin. Germany is also a bellwether for how governments respond to the MAGA onslaught. It has been a target of Trump's anger over trade deficits and German cars on American streets. And in Munich last weekend, Vice President JD Vance called German politicians' attempts to sideline the far-right Alternative for Germany party (AfD) anti-democratic. It's a lot for any nation, let alone one that is economically and politically hobbled. For all that, polls show the center holding against the challenge mounted by the anti-immigration, nationalist AfD party that won the backing of Vance and Elon Musk. Barring surprises, the conservative bloc's Friedrich Merz should become chancellor, and form a coalition with the center-left Social Democrats or the Greens, or perhaps both. Then the real work starts. — Alan Crawford, Bloomberg News | 
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