Tuesday, February 25, 2025

Supply Lines: Tariffs on Chinese ships

Shipbuilding and maritime trade are emerging as new fronts in the US-China trade war, and unlike President Donald Trump's call for blanket t
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Shipbuilding and maritime trade are emerging as new fronts in the US-China trade war, and unlike President Donald Trump's call for blanket tariffs, his shipping crackdown seems to have support across the political spectrum in Washington.

China has targeted seafaring and logistics sectors for dominance, effectively undercutting the competition and winning market share "with dramatic effect," the Office of the US Trade Representative said in a proposal Friday. 

The plan would impose several service fees — including a levy of as much as $1 million — to be charged when Chinese-built vessels enter a US port. (Click here to read the full story.)

It would also steadily escalate restrictions on maritime transport of all US goods. Initially at least 1% of American products exported by maritime vessels would have to be carried on vessels that are both US-flagged and -operated. The requirements would steadily rise, with the threshold climbing to 15% after seven years and eventually encompassing requirements the ships be built in the US, too.

The push to revive US shipbuilding and add penalties for Chinese-built and owned vessels is supported by labor unions and lawmakers of both parties, and spans the administrations of both Joe Biden and Trump.

"Today, the US ranks 19th in the world in commercial shipbuilding, and we build less than five ships each year," Biden's USTR Katherine Tai said in an announcement in January of the Section 301 investigation findings. That's in contrast to the more than 1,700 ships built in China each year, she said.

The United Steelworkers, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, International Brotherhood of Boilermakers and International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers urged quick action on the findings, which wrapped just days before Trump took office.

"We urge you to impose tough penalties against vessels built according to the plans, policies and actions of the Chinese Communist Party and to adopt complementary policies that rebuild America's shipbuilding capacity and workforce," the unions' leaders presidents wrote in a letter to Trump dated Feb. 19.

Bipartisan Support

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, then a member of Congress, last year co-sponsored legislation to address China's maritime advantage. The SHIPS for America Act was introduced in December by bipartisan lawmakers including Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat, and Republican Senator Todd Young, and continues to make its way through Congress.

Read More: Trump Gets New Tool to Fight China With Findings on Shipbuilding

At the heart of these proposals is boosting US national security. Commercial shipping is viewed as a major leverage point China could exploit given the global trading system's dependence on its vessels.

Yet disruptions to that system could lead to supply chain shocks that clog global ports and paralyze shipping routes. Some experts argue proposals like USTR's and those contained in the SHIPS Act would increase costs for US businesses and consumers.

Read More: US Lawmakers Seek to Bolster Shipbuilding at Home: Supply Lines

"A significant portion of imports entering the US via ports would be directly subject to hefty fines, as these additional expenses would likely be passed on from the carrier to shippers and, ultimately, to importers and exporters," ING economists Inga Fechner, Lynn Song and Rico Luman wrote in a note on Monday.

'Unnecessary Costs'

It's also not clear that the proposals would be enough to restore American shipbuilding capacity, which has eroded despite century-old protections meant to encourage the use of US-built and -operated vessels. Industry analysts also cite a shortage of merchant mariners required to operate these ships.

"Whether it's the Panama Canal situation, the complex reciprocal tariffs or the just unveiled initiative to tax ships with a China connection each time they call on a US port, these inject chaos, uncertainty and above all unnecessary costs into the container shipping supply chain," wrote John McCown, an industry veteran and founder of Blue Alpha Capital. 

"Those extra costs will be borne by American consumers if these initiatives are implemented," McCown said. "That's actually the best-case scenario."

Chinese shipping stocks declined after the Trump administration released the proposal. USTR's comment period ends March 24th.

Laura Curtis in Los Angeles

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Tariff targets | The European Union is broadening the list of US goods it will target with retaliatory tariffs if Trump follows through on his threat to impose duties on steel and aluminum exports, according to people familiar with the matter. Bloomberg reported on Saturday that the US measures could impact as much as €28 billion ($29.3 billion) of European exports if derivative products are hit, which would be about four times larger than the last time Trump went after the bloc's metals sector. 

Today's Must Reads

  • The Trump administration is sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs and pressuring key allies to escalate their restrictions on China's chip industry.
  • Trump said tariffs scheduled to hit Canada and Mexico next month were "on time" and "moving along very rapidly" following an initial delay, even as a US official cautioned the schedule could be less certain. Meanwhile, Mexico is weighing possible levies on Chinese imports as it pushes for a deal to avoid the 25% tariffs before a deadline in early March.
  • The  European Commission said it would respond "swiftly and decisively" if Trump takes any "unjustified measures" following his latest warning over the bloc's tech rules. Separately, the EU has agreed to partially suspend several sanctions on Syria's energy industry.
  • The Trump administration imposed a new round of sanctions on oil brokers, ships and people it said were linked to illicit shipments of Iranian crude, framing the move as a return to a "maximum pressure" strategy to squeeze the country's economy.
  • Economists are trimming their estimates for Canada's growth as the threat of a trade battle with the US is seen weighing on business investment. A US-Canada tariff war would plunge Canadian output by nearly 3% over two years, wiping out growth during that period, and lower the path for long-term growth by 2.5%.
  • In this Talking Transports podcast, Ben Gordon, founder of BGSA Holdings and Cambridge Capital, shares his insights about the state of the M&A and private equity markets for transportation, logistics and tangential technology companies.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • If Mexico imposes tariffs on Chinese imports the direct impact will be limited, as Mexico accounts for only 2.4% of China's total exports, wrote David Qu of Bloomberg Economics. Still, it may lead to another challenge for China's efforts at diversifying exports, if other economies follow suit due to pressure from the US.
  • Grocery-store egg prices could climb for the next few months as domestic supply -- reduced by highly pathogenic avian influenza struggles to catch up with demand that's been compounded by panic buying, according to Bloomberg Intelligence's Justin Barlup and Jennifer Bartashus. Conventional table eggs jumped 36 cents a dozen nationally last week, on average.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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