Crypto News: Supply Lines: India prepares for Trump

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India isn't in Donald Trump's sights when it comes to tariffs in the way Canada, Mexico and China have been recently, but few countries have moved as quickly to placate the new US president anyway.

In a matter of weeks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has handed Trump a series of concessions on core Trump issues from trade to migration.

The latest came over the weekend when India overhauled its own restrictive tariff regime to cut a wide range of duties — including those on large-engine motorcycles like those made by Harley-Davidson, an iconic American export that Trump has long said gets unfair treatment in India.

Modi has also agreed to take back thousands of its undocumented migrants, and offered reassurances it has no intention of backing away from the US dollar as a trade currency.

India has much to lose in a US trade war — from the trade and defense benefits it accrues as the US's preeminent partner in South Asia to its billions of dollars worth of US exports.

White House Meeting

Modi's concessions likely aren't going unnoticed in Washington: The Indian leader is already expected at the White House this month, set to make him one of the first foreign leaders to visit since Trump took office.

After two weeks in office, Trump is starting to show his cards to the US's largest trading partners that he's threatened with tariffs for months. On Monday he shelved plans for broad 25% import taxes on Canada and Mexico, after pressuring Colombia the prior week with similar economic damage if it didn't comply with his wishes on migration.

On Tuesday, Trump's call for 10% tariffs on Chinese imports did take effect, prompting a swift but measured response from Beijing that markets were starting to digest on Tuesday morning.

After Trump's latest head-spinning announcements, the one certainty with US tariffs is uncertainty. Just-released analysis from Bloomberg Economics showed that the surge in trade policy uncertainty following the election is itself a shock to the global economy. BE's new US model predicts that ongoing elevated uncertainty could knock almost 1% off domestic industrial production by May 2026.

Related Reading:

—Dan Strumpf in New Delhi

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Back on track | US factory activity expanded last month for the first time since 2022 as orders ramped up and production quickened, pointing to a brighter manufacturing outlook. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing gauge rose 1.7 points in January to 50.9, the highest since September 2022, according to data released Monday. A measure of new orders rose 3 points to 55.1, the strongest growth since May 2022. The fifth straight monthly increase in the index, which illustrates a pickup in demand, led producers to ratchet up output.

Today's Must Reads

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had hoped to spend Monday marking a new milestone in the UK's much-promised reset with European Union five years after Brexit. Instead, he received a dramatic reminder of how much harder that will be with Trump back in the White House.
Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen says trade "normally finds a way" despite disruptions, according to an interview with Bloomberg TV.
Panama promised free passage for US warships through the Panama Canal and said it will withdraw from China's signature lending program after Secretary of State Marco Rubio blasted the government during his visit on Sunday.
Denmark is ready to allow the US to boost its presence in Greenland, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said as she seeks to curb an escalating diplomatic crisis with the Trump administration over the world's largest island.
Tesla registered fewer cars in California in all four quarters of 2024, as sales of its second-most important model plunged 36% for the year.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the US central bank is unlikely to react to the impact of tariffs on prices so long as officials don't see signals of higher, persistent inflation, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the mounting uncertainty introduced by the Trump administration justifies a more cautious approach to lowering borrowing costs.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

Chinese traders are on tenterhooks ahead of Wednesday's market reopen as the resumption of a trade war with the US shakes up the investment landscape. French Cognac shipments to China slid by 75% in December, after tariffs imposed by Beijing accelerated a collapse in demand.
Hapag-Lloyd will use green financings for the 24 large container ships it ordered in October 2024, according to statement.
Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints.
For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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