Thursday, February 20, 2025

Next China: Jack's back

Hi, this is Allen Wan in Shanghai, reminiscing about the time I went on a wild chase to track down Jack Ma, one of China's most famous entre
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Hi, this is Allen Wan in Shanghai, reminiscing about the time I went on a wild chase to track down Jack Ma, one of China's most famous entrepreneurs.

But first: it was a big week for Ma and China's private sector. Four years after a regulatory crackdown rocked the tech industry and pushed Alibaba's co-founder out of the spotlight, Ma — along with some of China's top entrepreneurs — was invited to a high-profile meeting with President Xi Jinping.

For me, it felt especially significant. Back when Ma vanished from public view after clashing with officials over his bold personality and critical comments about regulators, I was sent to track him down. I visited his old haunts in Hangzhou in 2021, stopping by "Jack's Bar" and the now-famous apartment where he and his co-founders first came up with the idea for Alibaba. 

Xi Jinping meets with representatives of private entrepreneurs in Beijing on Feb. 17. Photographer: Li Xueren/Xinhua

None of it got me any closer.

Then, I got a tip: Ma had been seen golfing in Sanya, China's version of Hawaii. So I spent a week staking out golf courses, playing round after round, hoping to catch a glimpse of him. Finally, he was spotted at the secluded Sun Valley Golf Resort. My job was done, and I could finally go home.

Fast forward to today, the gathering that brought together Ma, Huawei's Ren Zhengfei, Xiaomi's Lei Jun, and other big names was more about symbolism than specifics. Xi vowed to eliminate unfair fees and fines on private businesses and promised a more level playing field — a major gripe of entrepreneurs in China's state-dominated system.

The meeting signaled the end of a sweeping crackdown that crippled industries like private tutoring and gaming, wiping out billions from China's top tech firms.

It further boosted investor confidence, extending a rally in Chinese stocks which have been surging since DeepSeek's new AI model shocked the world by showcasing China's potential to achieve technological breakthroughs despite US export controls. 

So, what does this mean for Ma?

Costumes worn by Jack Ma at Alibaba's corporate galas. Photographer: Barcroft Media/Barcroft Media

Honestly, he looks to have moved on — just like China. These days, he's more interested in agriculture than reviving Alibaba's heyday. Meanwhile, his former empire faces growing competition from the likes of ByteDance, JD.com, Temu and Shein.

Rather than leading the pack, Alibaba is playing it safe, aligning itself with government priorities like AI. That approach is starting to pay off. The company just posted its fastest revenue growth in over a year, thanks to strong gains in e-commerce and cloud services. That sent its stock surging as much as 15% in New York on Thursday, its biggest intraday jump in nearly two years.

And for investors, that might just be enough. 

What We're Reading, Listening to and Watching:

  • How online shopping giant Temu got sucked into Donald Trump's trade war
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's interview on Bloomberg Surveillance, where he commented on government debt issuance and the future of sanctions against Russia 
  • A Q&A with Australia's deputy central bank governor on why policymakers don't yet share the market's confidence about the trajectory of interest-rate cuts
  • Selling passports for $140,500 helps Nauru fund climate defenses
  • The far-right pushes Germany's political system to the breaking point 
  • Undocumented workers helped build Elon Musk's factories in Texas
  • A podcast on how Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine

Catch-22

This week's US-Russia talks on ending the war in Ukraine are raising important questions for Xi — in particular, about the future of his carefully managed relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Beijing's delicate ties with the Trump administration. 

China has said it welcomes efforts to bring peace to Ukraine, but there's growing concern in the Chinese capital that if the war ends, the US will turn its focus to Asia — putting China directly in its sights.

It's a Catch-22 situation, said John Gong, a professor at the University of International Business and Economics, who's worked as a consultant for China's Commerce Ministry.

"It wants the war to stop, or at least be suspended," he said. "But it's not so much interested in becoming the No. 1 priority issue for Washington."

So far, Trump's presidency has seen both sides tread carefully. Just this week, the Republican told reporters that a trade deal was "possible" while once again trumpeting his "very good relationship" with Xi.

There are significant barriers to achieving that — and any broader agreement — because of Beijing's deep skepticism of Trump's intentions. His administration is stacked with China hawks, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has pledged to address Beijing's "destabilizing actions" in the South China Sea. 

Cui Hongjian, a former Chinese diplomat who teaches at Beijing Foreign Studies University, says there's "minimal mutual trust" between the two economic superpowers. "It's difficult for China to believe that, once it supports Trump, it could get some benefits," he said. 

That's not to say Beijing has nothing to gain from a Ukraine peace deal. By taking a role in peacekeeping efforts or helping with Ukraine's reconstruction, it could mend ties with Europe and bolster its reputation as a global problem solver.

But without the distraction of a conflict in Europe, the US could redirect its military focus to China's own backyard — the Indo-Pacific. That would put Taiwan in the spotlight, prompting officials on the self-governing island to scramble and find ways to demonstrate Taiwan's value to Trump. 

In the meantime, UIBE's Gong raises yet another possibility — that US-Russia talks stall, ushering in what he describes as a "forever dialogue."

Staying Away

90%
That's roughly how much Chinese investment in the US, Canada, and Mexico plunged in the fourth quarter of last year, with companies announcing only $191 million in investments into North America.

Behind the Great Firewall

A weekly look at the big water cooler news in China.

A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, is now the most dangerous ever detected. NASA estimates it has over a 3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, and the news is making waves on Chinese social media.

While some worried about the potential devastation from the asteroid, many on social media seemed confident — and even proud — that China would step in to save the world if the time comes.

"It's time for China to flex its muscles! Chinese scientists are ready to intercept it," one Weibo user posted. "Only China has the capability. We can even livestream the action for the world to see."

State media weighed in, too, noting that China has already taken steps to defend against such threats. Social media users shared previous reports showing the country began building a near-Earth asteroid defense system in 2022. They also pointed to recent job postings for a "planetary defense force" at a state agency as proof that progress is underway. 

A senior official from the National Space Administration said in 2022 that China plans to experiment with altering an asteroid's orbit by hitting it around this year or the next. 

A model of the Chang-E 6 lunar probe on display at the China National Space Administration (CNSA) booth during the China International Aviation & Aerospace Exhibition in Zhuhai, China, on Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024.  Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

The threat of the incoming space rock, measuring 40 to 90 meters and capable of destroying a major city, also fueled more China versus US comparisons. Chinese internet users highlighted the major progress Beijing has made in the space race with Washington, including the historic landing and return of a spacecraft from the far side of the moon last year.

"In Hollywood movies, the US is always the savior of the world — whether it's aliens, asteroids or viruses. China doesn't rely on such fiction but is focused on practical work. We're the real hope," another Weibo user wrote.

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