Tuesday, February 4, 2025

Next Africa: Trump’s tirade

US funding to South Africa halted pending probe, Trump says
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Welcome to Next Africa, a twice-weekly newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it's headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email.

Donald Trump has trained his sights on South Africa as he reshapes America's foreign relations.

"South Africa is confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY," the US president proclaimed on his Truth Social platform. "A massive Human Rights VIOLATION, at a minimum, is happening for all to see. The United States won't stand for it, we will act." 

Elon Musk speaks at a rally with Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, on Oct. 5. Photographer: Justin Merriman/Bloomberg

The tirade included a pledge to halt all future funding to Pretoria pending a full investigation into its land policy. It came after President Cyril Ramaphosa signed off on a revised law — similar to eminent domain in the US — that sets out the conditions under which the authorities can expropriate property in the public interest — in some instances without paying for it. 

Ramaphosa's African National Congress, the country's largest political party, says the measure is needed to help address a situation whereby White people control the vast majority of farmland despite accounting for just 7% of the population, and are on average way wealthier than their Black counterparts. 

Elon Musk, Trump's billionaire adviser who has been seeking approval to expand his satellite-based internet service Starlink into South Africa, chimed in on his social media platform X, accusing his birthplace of having "openly racist ownership laws." He's also spread the baseless conspiracy theory that there's a "genocide" against its White farmers.

Ramaphosa was quick to point out that no land grabs had taken place and many nations — including the US — have rules that balance the need for public usage of land and the protection of owners' interests. Property rights are enshrined in South Africa's constitution, with disputes arbitrated by independent courts. 

WATCH: Bloomberg's Jennifer Zabasajja reports on Trump's criticism of South Africa's land policies.

Ramaphosa can ill afford a showdown with America — irrespective of whether Trump has gotten his facts straight. 

South Africa stands to immediately lose about $246 million a year in US funding, most of which goes toward AIDS programs. 

A bigger risk is that it's stripped of preferential access to US markets under the African Growth and Opportunity Act. America is South Africa's biggest trading partner after China. Exports to the US totaled almost $14 billion in 2023, a quarter of which qualified for duty-free access.

Ramaphosa, who holds the rotating presidency of the Group of 20 nations this year, said he looks forward to engaging with the Trump administration over the land-reform policy and reaching a common understanding. 

Awkward conversations are looming should US Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio make an expected appearance at a G-20 foreign ministers' meeting in South Africa this month.  S'thembile Cele

Key stories and opinion:
Trump Vows to Punish South Africa Over Expropriation Law 
Trump's Threats to Tear Up US Foreign Aid Open Door for Beijing 
Why Trump Is Taking Aim at South Africa's Land Laws: QuickTake
South African President Signs Off on Land-Expropriation Law 
South Africa's DA Declares Coalition Dispute Over New Laws

News Roundup

M23 rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo declared a unilateral ceasefire as the Group of Seven nations demanded that they halt an offensive in the eastern part of the country. After seizing the trading hub of Goma last week, M23 pushed south toward Bukavu in mineral-rich South Kivu province, clashing with Congo's army and allies. The rebels said they had no intention of taking Bukavu and would pause fighting "for humanitarian reasons." At least 900 people were killed and nearly 3,000 wounded during the assault on Goma, according to the United Nations. 

A bullet-riddled military truck in Goma. Photographer: Tony Karumba/Getty Images

Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, has set itself a target of boosting daily production by about three-fifths to 2.7 million barrels by 2027. The country can largely keep within its OPEC+ quota of 1.5 million barrels of crude by ramping up output of condensate, a lighter hydrocarbon, according to Olu Verheijen, special adviser on energy to President Bola Tinubu. Improvements in security around oil drilling and transportation sites will drive the production increase.

The African Development Bank plans to increase access to local-currency debt that the continent needs to underpin a new drive to bring electricity to 300 million people by 2030, according to the lender's head, Akinwumi Adesina. The program envisages tens of billions of dollars of investments in energy projects across the continent. Previous electrification attempts in Africa have stalled because developers need to borrow in hard currency to pay for equipment, while their revenue streams expose them to volatile exchange rates.

Akinwumi Adesina. Photographer: Fredrik Lerneryd/Bloomberg

Resolute Mining's shares slumped following the resignation of Chief Executive Officer Terry Holohan, who was detained in Mali during a dispute with the country's military junta last year. Holohan will be replaced by Chris Eger, who has served as acting CEO since December. Holohan and two colleagues were held as Mali demanded the gold miner pay about $160 million to resolve a tax dispute. They were freed after Resolute agreed to pay.

South Africa's state electricity utility resumed power cuts late last week after some of its plants broke down, ending a 10-month break from outages. Eskom took 3,000 megawatts of supply offline to stabilize the national grid.Power was fully restored by Sunday. Rotational blackouts, known locally as loadshedding, reached record levels in recent years due the poor performance of the utility's mostly coal-fired stations, curbing productivity and economic growth.

Eskom's Kusile power plant. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

Zimbabwe plans to introduce new measures to rein in a burgeoning informal sector that's threatening the survival of formal businesses. "Some manufacturers have been opting to supply their goods directly to the customers and informal retailers, bypassing wholesalers and retailers," which is compromising their operations, Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said. The authorities will make it mandatory for all informal traders to use point-of-sale machines and discourage producers from selling to them directly. 

Thank you for your responses to our weekly Next Africa Quiz and congratulations to Michael Telahun, who correctly identified Uganda as the African country that reported a new outbreak of Ebola last week.

Chart of the Week

Charities, diplomats and foreign officials around the world are frantically trying to figure out what will happen to USAID, the American agency that doles out more than $40 billion in support for everything from life-saving HIV programs in Africa to funding for Ukraine. The US is the world's largest donor and spent about $68 billion on foreign assistance in 2023. Within a week of taking office, the Trump administration froze it all before partially reversing the decision with a waiver that the humanitarian, development and diplomatic worlds are still struggling to interpret. 

Thanks for reading. We'll be back in your inbox with the next edition on Friday. Send any feedback to mcohen21@bloomberg.net

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