President Donald Trump will get a one-two punch this week from European leaders hoping to preserve the US's role in protecting Ukraine. Ellen Milligan writes today about their goals. Plus: A big deal for a self-driving truck startup, a look at the future of graduate business schools and the new sector wanting your retirement money. If this email was forwarded to you, click here to sign up. To say Europe is worried about Donald Trump would be an understatement. The US president has threatened to pull American support for Ukraine. He has insulted the country's leader and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin. And he seems increasingly prepared to turn his back on a 75-year-old trans-Atlantic alliance. Seeking to steer Trump back, French President Emmanuel Macron will visit the White House today, and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will be in Washington on Thursday. Both leaders aim to placate the volatile president and persuade him to change tack. Whether they do so will likely determine the extent of Europe's role in shaping a peaceful Ukraine. European diplomats privately say Trump's broadside against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week—when he falsely said Ukraine started the war with Russia and labeled its leader a dictator—was disgraceful and reflected Russian disinformation. But the fragility of Europe's position boils down to this: A fifth of Ukraine's arms come from the US. Sure, Ukraine itself has contributed more than half its military hardware, and a quarter comes from Europe and a handful of other places such as Canada. But the truth—and Europe knows this—is that US weapons are better than their own and that, without them, Ukraine would struggle to protect itself in the war and in any future breach of a peace deal. Starmer and Macron last week at the Elysee Palace in Paris. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg The responsibility for delivering this message to Trump falls to the leaders of Europe's two nuclear powers. Macron is a seasoned but embattled politician who failed to persuade Putin to avoid war just before Russia surged across the border three years ago today. Starmer is a famously cautious center-left lawyer who's been in office for less than eight months. Yesterday the two discussed a plan they've been crafting for weeks, what officials describe as a "reassurance force" to backstop any potential peace deal. It would entail fewer than 30,000 soldiers in Ukraine to protect cities, ports and critical infrastructure, including nuclear sites. Aircraft and expanded land forces would be stationed just across the border in Romania and Poland. Drones and surveillance aircraft would monitor Ukraine's border with Russia. Ships would patrol the Black Sea. It's their way of demonstrating Europe's commitment to a stronger role in ensuring its own security. But it hinges on Trump's support. Macron says he will warn his US counterpart not to be "weak." And Starmer insists British troops won't be deployed without American participation. "A US security guarantee is the only way to effectively deter Russia from attacking Ukraine again," Starmer said last week at a meeting of European leaders in Paris. Macron and Starmer don't simply seek to prevent Trump from rushing into negotiations with an untrustworthy Russia, particularly without Ukraine's consent. Just as important will be for the US president to commit to a postwar deal that would include American airpower protecting Ukraine's skies and US intelligence monitoring its borders. If this week goes well, Europe might find a seat at the table in the negotiation room, with Trump bringing US security guarantees and declining to push Ukraine into a lousy deal. If it goes badly, Europe—and Ukraine—will continue to be left out. |
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