Crypto News: A first-time German voter’s guide

Germans go to the polls on Sunday, and Businessweek's Europe editor, David Rocks, will be there, ballot in hand for the first time. To give you (and himself) some insight into the jumble of parties and the issues at stake, David prepared this guide to the election. Plus: Expert advice for investing in 2025, and Dr. Phil's Merit TV struggles to find its audience.

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A few hours ago, I became German. Tomorrow, I'll register to vote, and, if all goes to plan, on Sunday I'll cast my ballot for the Bundestag, the country's parliament. After 12-plus years in Berlin, I've finally been granted citizenship, and in my first German election since immigrating to this country, the issue sparking the greatest debate is … immigration.

So indulge me as I work out my feelings about how to cast my ballot—and maybe even help non-German readers better understand what's at stake. There's an alphabet soup of parties to sort through: the SPD, center-left Social Democrats; the CDU, center-right Christian Democrats, allied with the CSU, a Bavarian sister party; the FDP, the libertarian-leaning Free Democrats; the AfD, the far-right Alternative for Germany; the blessedly non-initialized Greens, the leftish standard-bearer for the environmental movement; the Left, a successor to the East German Communists; and the BSW, or Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance, a splinter group from the Left named after its firebrand leader.

And that's just the groups with a realistic chance of making it into the Bundestag. For the past month or so, Berlin has been plastered with ads for about a dozen more parties—focused on issues ranging from animal welfare to Marxism-Leninism—that have no hope of meeting either threshold: exceeding 5% of the overall vote or winning at least three districts.

That dizzying array of parties notwithstanding, voting is a paragon of simplicity when compared with most US elections I've participated in. I will choose a candidate in my local district and a party nationally, and that's it. What's complicated is that the multiparty, two-vote system makes it almost impossible for a single party to win a majority, the result of a constitution written in reaction to a decade-plus of Nazi dictatorship.

A campaign poster for the SPD featuring outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Photographer: Frank Soellner/Getty Images

Once the results are final, it typically takes months for the leading parties to cobble together a coalition. Some pundits expect things to move along more quickly this year to ensure there's someone to grapple with the shifting mood in Washington, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine.

The outgoing government was an ultimately untenable alliance of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats. After months of squabbling over spending, it disintegrated in the fall amid news that the Free Democrats had hatched a secret plan to undermine its partners. SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz quickly fired the FDP's leader (Finance Minister Christian Lindner) and called for elections about three and a half years into what would normally have been a four-year term.

The immigration debate has been fueled by the decision made a decade ago by Chancellor Angela Merkel (remember her?) to welcome more than 1 million refugees from Afghanistan, Syria and other war-torn countries. In her three terms heading the government, Merkel pushed her CDU to the left on immigration, the environment and same-sex marriage. At the same time, she pursued massive imports of gas to keep Germany's economy chugging—a stance that's caused many here to reconsider her legacy.

Elon Musk at a virtual meeting with AfD co-chief Alice Weidel. Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg

As the CDU drifted left, disaffected voters headed the other direction, and in 2013 the AfD sprung up with an anti-European Union message. The far-right party (recently embraced by Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance) grew increasingly anti-immigrant after the 2015 influx and soon veered into Nazi-sounding sloganeering. In 2017 the party became the first far-right group to enter the Bundestag since World War II, with particularly strong support in the once-communist East. During the pandemic, the AfD took an anti-vaccine stance, and in 2021 it won 10.3% of the vote. Its current platform advocates mass deportations and emphasizes what it calls traditional German values.

The other end of the spectrum is becoming equally fractious. In elections for the European Parliament last June, the BSW earned 6% of the German vote—more than twice what the Left got. The BSW's message is almost as anti-immigrant as the AfD's, though it also advocates more typically left-wing policies like higher wages for workers and increased taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

As in myriad other places, the polarization of Germany's electorate has hollowed out the center. The SPD has seen its support plummet by almost half since the last Bundestag elections, with recent polls showing the CDU surging into the lead. The Social Democrats have dropped to third, behind the AfD, but all of the more-established parties have rejected cooperation with the far right (despite some flirtation from the CDU on a pair of votes on immigration last month). The Greens are fourth, with the Left just above the 5% threshold for winning seats and the Free Democrats and BSW hovering around that level.

The likely outcome is a government headed by the Christian Democrats, in coalition with the SPD and/or the Greens. But that augurs a decidedly rightward shift for Germany, particularly on immigration, as parties across the political spectrum seek to woo voters who've tilted toward the extremes. The new government won't likely be enthusiastic about what's happening in Washington, but it will seek to work with President Donald Trump's team to protect Germany, and Europe, from higher tariffs and faltering US interest in the NATO alliance.

So how will I vote on Sunday? Sorry, but I won't tell you. Everyone knows that Germans rarely reveal their politics to strangers. And I'm German now.

The German election marks the end of an acrimonious campaign dominated by the issues of immigration and a faltering economy. Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua, Chad Thomas, Oliver Crook and Michael Nienaber discuss what's at stake in the vote in a Live Q&A on Friday at 10 a.m. EST/4 p.m. CET.

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Eight Pressing Personal Finance Questions

Photographer: Nadine Redlich for Bloomberg Businessweek

This year has already been … a lot. The whole AI narrative that was powering the US stock market is being called into question. There's little certainty about how a second Trump administration will affect the finances of average Americans and whether we'll see inflation rise again, pressuring stocks, bonds—and all of our pocketbooks. To help navigate these murky times, we quizzed investment experts on the big questions investors are facing in a year that, while brimming with risk, could also bring rewards—with the right strategies.

What are the odds of a big drop in the S&P 500 this year, and how should I prepare?

The S&P 500 has gained more than 20% for two years running—something that's happened only 10 times since 1871, says Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Although Cembalest expects the stock market to end the year higher, he also says it could drop by as much as 15% along the way—which, he notes, is less unusual. The index has tumbled 10% or more in 60 of the past 100 years.

Given the likelihood of market gyrations, a better question is when you'll need your money. Every drop has been followed by new highs, so if you can wait a few years before cashing out, you'll probably be fine. Also, take a good look at your diversification. Simply holding the S&P 500 won't cut it, since the top 10 stocks—mostly tech names—make up about two-fifths of the index's market value, versus just over a quarter in 2000.

One way to diversify is to buy an exchange-traded fund that tracks an equal-weighted version of the index, where every company represents about 0.2% of the value, says Ben Inker, co-head of asset allocation at GMO LLC. "Longer run, it's been a nice way to not get too caught up in whatever the current fad is," he says.

Suzanne Woolley has the answers to seven more personal finance questions here: Crypto, Inflation, Bonds: Your Investment Guide to a Risky Year

Dr. Phil in the Streaming Era

Photo illustration: Pedro Nekoi for Bloomberg Businessweek; photos: Getty

Phil McGraw strolled onstage and waved at the cheering crowd. It was late October, and the former daytime TV star known as Dr. Phil had arrived at Donald Trump's revved-up campaign rally inside New York's Madison Square Garden dressed in an understated blue suit and tie, his thick mustache well groomed for the occasion.

From Elon Musk to Tucker Carlson to Terry Bollea (aka Hulk Hogan), the night's lineup of speakers was packed with business and media figures jockeying for position within Trump's inner circle. Eventually, it was McGraw's turn to address the crowd.

For the next 17 minutes, speaking in a folksy Southern twang, McGraw lavished praise on Trump ("He's tough as an old army boot") while also plugging his new venture, a media company devoted—somewhat awkwardly given the night's one-sided cast of partisan headliners—to unbiased truth-telling. "It's time that we push back against cancel culture," McGraw said. "It's time that we push back against intimidation tactics. And that is exactly the reason that I launched Merit Street Media."

For much of the past quarter century, McGraw enjoyed a lucrative media career, orbiting his chief benefactor, Oprah Winfrey. But, as Hannah Miller writes, the streaming era has proved less hospitable to the Oprahverse generally and McGraw in particular: Dr. Phil's Streaming-Era Rebrand Has Been a Struggle

Star Performer

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Airing of Grievances

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NJ Transit commuter

In a complaint filed with the agency

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