| This is the Weekend Edition of Bloomberg Opinion Today, a roundup of Bloomberg Opinion's most-read stories. New subscribers can sign up here; follow us on Bluesky, TikTok, Instagram, LinkedIn and Threads.  Photographer: Bloomberg President Xi Jinping is fond of invoking stormy seas to describe the dangers China will confront in the years ahead. Luckily for him, he has yet to encounter such extreme scenarios. A two-year economic slump may have stalled his goal of transforming his country into a superpower equal to the US. Still, he has managed to navigate a darkening geopolitical landscape without suffering a true calamity. As Donald Trump reenters the White House, Xi's luck threatens to run out. He could face five simultaneous challenges that will determine China's trajectory for the remainder of the decade. Without question, the first "storm" awaiting Xi is an escalation in Sino-American tensions. Trump has pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese imports up to 60%. Actually doing so would lead to a rapid and chaotic decoupling of bilateral trade, which totaled more than $570 billion in 2023. Washington is also expected to tighten export controls on advanced technology, further hindering China's progress in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and other fields. With its economy hobbled by excessively high debt, deflation, and a real estate crisis, China is in a more perilous state than in 2018, when Trump first hauled out his tariff bazooka. Even more dangerously, the hawks in control of the US national security apparatus are likely to adopt more aggressive tactics on Taiwan and the South China Sea, which could precipitate a superpower standoff reminiscent of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Xi's first and toughest task will be to prevent Sino-American frictions from spiraling out of control.
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