Thursday, January 9, 2025

Will Jimmy Carter’s Chinese legacy last?

The 39th president changed the course of the global economy.
Bloomberg

This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a race to the bottom of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here.

Today's Agenda

The Death of the Benevolent American

Nearly 46 years ago, US President Jimmy Carter made history by welcoming Deng Xiaoping, the architect of modern China, to Washington. The visit, which irrevocably changed the course of the global economy, marked the first time a leader of Communist China set foot on US soil:

A historic handshake. Photographer: Chuck Fishman/Getty Images

With his embrace of Xiaoping, says the Bloomberg editorial board, Carter "normalized diplomatic relations with China, making the world safer and richer for decades." This morning, hundreds of people — including all five living US presidents — gathered to honor Carter's legacy at his funeral in the Washington National Cathedral. Countless more mourned him from farther away. From China, President Xi Jinping sent "deep condolences" on news of his passing, and online admirers are reportedly calling Carter "Meirenzong," which translates to "benevolent American," a title traditionally used to honor emperors.

It'd be a real shame if the remaining goodwill between Beijing and Washington died with Carter. Yet there are signs that this is happening.

Consider the increased bifurcation of the global tech industry. "On Monday, the Pentagon blacklisted internet and gaming giant Tencent Holdings Ltd. for alleged links to the People's Liberation Army," writes Catherine Thorbecke. "On Friday, TikTok will make its final arguments to the US Supreme Court as it faces an unprecedented ban due to national security concerns."

The US "has been throwing around perceived national security risks as reason to come after Chinese tech companies, but leaders haven't always been very forthcoming about what exactly that means," she writes. The prospect of a ban is frustrating for American TikTok users who rely on the short-form video platform for income or even their livelihoods. Adam Minter says college athletes, for example, could lose out on thousands of dollars in sponsorships if the app goes kaput.

Even worse, Catherine says the "whack-a-mole approach to holding China's tech sector back is spurring a race to the bottom" since regulators are taking similar precautions in China. Last month, they launched a probe into US chipmaker Nvidia, and she expects Beijing to further retaliate against consumer-facing American tech firms in the future.

Semiconductor export controls are perhaps the best example of the US shooting itself in the foot with its national security brouhaha. When President Joe Biden's administration tightened restrictions on chips, Tyler Cowen says, Chinese developers were forced to seek alternative ways to train their large-language model, DeepSeek-V3. They were successful — Tyler admits it's one of the best LLMs of the dozens he's tested in recent years — and they even managed to do it on a budget.

Instead of delaying China's military and technological prowess, the US inadvertently accelerated a major Chinese innovation. "Now the world knows that a very high-quality AI system can be trained for a relatively small sum of money," Tyler writes (free read). "That could bring comparable AI systems into realistic purview for nations such as Russia, Iran, Pakistan and others" — nations that Andreas Kluth says are daydreaming about nukes. I can't imagine Carter — a nuclear engineer-turned-president who championed arms control during his time in office — would be pleased by this development.

Playing With Fire

A sensible president who sees a city burning to the ground would immediately grant local officials' requests for federal disaster aid. They would not, under any circumstances, start insulting those leaders on social media:

President-elect Donald Trump's proclivity for name-calling in the face of death and destruction is deeply unsettling, says Erika D. Smith. "In the first 10 months of 2024 alone, the US recorded 24 disasters with losses topping $1 billion. They hit red states and blue states alike; wildfires, hurricanes, floods and tornadoes don't discriminate. Mother Nature doesn't care whether you are a Democrat or a Republican. Trump, however, very much does. Recent history is littered with examples, from the 2018 California wildfires to hurricane-battered Puerto Rico."

If you were hoping Trump is a changed man, consider that in September, he vowed to withhold disaster aid from the Golden State if Governor Gavin Newsom failed to fork over more water to Republican farmers. Now, he's calling for Newsom's resignation on Truth Social.

"Flames are still erupting anew from homes in a city and a state that doesn't have enough of them," writes Erika. The last thing displaced Angelenos need right now is a political blame game. Sadly, that's what they're getting.

A Tale of Two Far Rights

Last year, half the global population voted in an election. This year, we're dealing with the fallout of said elections, many of which were no good, very bad for democratic institutions. Top of mind for many an opinion columnist: How worried should we be?

Austria "looks set to welcome its first far-right Chancellor since World War II," writes Marc Champion. The ascent of Herbert Kickl, the head of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), is part of a trend of voters rejecting the status quo. Although some of the FPO's goals — "remigrating" unwanted foreigners and binging on Russian gas — raise alarm bells, Marc is confident that Austria can survive the populist onslaught if it remains vigilant.

Katja Hoyer isn't so sure about Germany. A little context: When Alternative für Deutschland won a regional election last year, news outlets called it the first victory for a far-right party in Germany "since the Nazis." Elon Musk, who has endorsed the AfD and hosted a conversation today on X with Alice Weidel, its co-leader, strongly disagrees with the characterization of the party as far-right.

Who's correct? In AfD's latest manifesto, it says US interests "increasingly diverge" from Germany's and voices support for a U-turn on asylum policy, Germany's exit from the EU, lower taxes, fewer welfare programs and less bureaucracy. All pretty run-of-the-mill stuff for a right-wing party. Still, Katja says the document is tame compared to what some the party's supporters say out loud, making it tough to determine the AfD's place on the political spectrum.

There are radical members such as Björn Höcke, for example, a former history teacher who was fined €13,000 for using a slogan linked to Hitler's stormtroopers. But Weidel tried to expel Höcke in 2017. "It's no secret that the groups around Weidel and Höcke have been vying for control over the party," says Katja. Weidel remains on top for now. We'll have to wait until late February to see how she fares in the federal election.

Telltale Chart

As if that election weren't enough of a headache, Germany also has to deal with an aviation crisis. While most of Europe has fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels of air travel, Chris Bryant says the EU's biggest economy is lagging. "A loss of tourists and international air connections risks exacerbating Germany's economic malaise," he writes. If nothing changes, Ryanair's CEO says the country could eventually become an "aviation graveyard."

Further Reading

The UK must protect children from abuse. — Bloomberg's editorial board

It's not easy being a sell-side research analyst. — Matt Levine

Big chains dominated the Christmas shopping season. — Andrea Felsted

Trump needs to keep the US in the World Health Organization. — Gordon Brown

US investment banks with lofty valuations have little room for error. — Paul J. Davies

Boeing's cash profits will go toward the business, not shareholders. — Thomas Black

ICYMI

Venezuela's opposition leader got detained.

Trump had a phone chat with Samuel Alito.

Day 1 executive orders are coming into focus.

A sinkhole could wreck Ecuador's power grid.

Kickers

Scientists use mosquitoes to fight disease.

A conductor moonlights as an Air France pilot.

Outdoor hockey in Florida? I'll believe it when I see it.

Manhattan's iconic cat therapist passed away. (h/t Andrea Felsted)

A father-son football matchup for the ages. (h/t Paul J. Davies)

Notes: Please send cats on a couch and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

Sign up here and find us on BlueskyTikTokInstagramLinkedIn and Threads.

Follow Us

Like getting this newsletter? Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights.

Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can't find anywhere else. Learn more.

Want to sponsor this newsletter? Get in touch here.

You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Opinion Today newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, sign up here to get it in your inbox.
Unsubscribe
Bloomberg.com
Contact Us
Bloomberg L.P.
731 Lexington Avenue,
New York, NY 10022
Ads Powered By Liveintent Ad Choices

No comments:

Post a Comment

[Bonuses Added] Over $300 in additional bonuses

Alright it’s time we had a talk. To view this email as a web page, go  here. To view this email as a web page, go  here.                ...