By Siobhan Wagner From record solar installations to rising electric vehicle sales, the world is in many ways ramping up the fight against global warming. Yet there are coal-black swans waiting to disrupt the green transition this year. From the US to Japan, power demand is expected to significantly increase as data centers demand more electricity for artificial intelligence. This is forcing some utilities to rethink the phase-out dates of their fossil-fuel power stations. (It's also causing nuclear energy to have a revival too.) All of this is happening as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. Trump has already promised to end what he calls Washington's "green new scam." On day one he's pledged to scrap offshore wind projects, which would be another blow to an industry plagued by bottlenecks. He's also vowed to abandon the Paris Agreement, which calls for nations to limit global warming to ideally 1.5C before the end of the century. Even before Trump enters the White House, the planet is showing worrying vital signs with scientists virtually certain 2024 was the warmest year on record and the first in which global temperature rise exceeded 1.5C. What more can we expect in 2025? Our reporters and editors, along with BloombergNEF analysts, have selected trends that will shape the future of the planet this year. You can find all of them here, but we've included some below. Solar Installation Rate Slows in 2025 The solar market grew by 35% in 2024, but BloombergNEF expects global installations to only increase by 11% this year. As solar makes up a bigger proportion of countries' electricity mix, networks will struggle to integrate surplus daytime power into their grids. Still, solar will remain the largest source of new generation added to grids around the world in 2025. – Jenny Chase and Lara Hayim, solar analysts at BloombergNEF Solar panels at Cleve Hill Solar Park near Faversham, UK. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Oil Markets Reckon With Chinese EV Success Electric vehicle fever has cooled in some parts of the world. Not so much in China, which BloombergNEF forecasts will represent 65% of all EVs sold globally this year. The shift to electric led the nation's top oil company to move up its forecast for peak demand by five years to 2025, and analysts expect a steep decline after. That's bad news for OPEC, as China has accounted for more than half of global consumption growth this century. – Dan Murtaugh, reporter covering energy in China at Bloomberg News Long-Unloved Nuclear Comes Back Nuclear power is having a revival. In Europe, concern about global warming and the security of energy supplies amid Russia's war in Ukraine has sparked renewed interest in the energy released by splitting atoms. In the US, giant tech companies have been turning to nuclear as a climate-friendly power source. Expect to hear more news about restarting some of the big nuclear plants that have closed, and more interest in the next generation of reactors that are still under development but are expected to be smaller and easier to install. – Jonathan Tirone and Will Wade, covering power and renewables at Bloomberg News Constellation Energy Corp., the owner of the shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant, will invest $1.6 billion to revive it, agreeing to sell all the output to Microsoft Corp. Photographer: Heather Khalifa/Bloomberg The Arctic Moves Up the Priority List Global warming is accelerating at the top of the planet. Scientists will continue to track the Arctic's diminishing role as a shield against climate change as feedback loops caused by disappearing sea ice, thawing permafrost and underground wildfires turn parts of this once pristine region into a carbon source. Meanwhile, the Arctic will get busier. From new sea routes, to oil and gas deposits, to tourism, non-Arctic states including China will be keen to unlock more of the region's economic potential. At the same time, tensions between Russia and the seven NATO countries that make up the rest of the Arctic are boosting its strategic security value. Oh, and Trump wants to buy Greenland. – Danielle Bochove, senior reporter covering climate and the Arctic at Bloomberg News The Era of PFAS-Free Clothing Emerges Starting Jan. 1, businesses in California and New York are banned from selling new raincoats, shirts and other everyday apparel with intentionally added per- or poly-fluorinated chemicals, or PFAS for short. California's ban also covers linens and some other textiles. There's growing evidence linking these so-called forever chemicals to cancer and other health problems. In response to the two US state bans, some companies including outdoor gear and apparel maker Patagonia, Inc. have updated their products globally, meaning consumers everywhere stand to benefit. – Zahra Hirji, reporter covering greener living at Bloomberg News What do we expect for offset markets or COP30 negotiations in 2025? Read all 15 predictions on Bloomberg.com. |
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