Thursday, January 16, 2025

Trump’s tougher task: Ukraine

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After incoming US President Donald Trump's pivotal role in reaching a halt — even if temporarily — to the fighting in Gaza, his goal is to repeat that success in Ukraine.

It won't be easy.

The full-scale war that started nearly three years ago when Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded the neighboring state is still raging.

Russia this week attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including a natural-gas underground storage site, which it called retaliation for Ukrainian strikes using US and British missiles and after Ukraine hit Russian energy assets.

Since last year, Russian troops have been steadily inching forward in their offensive in Ukraine's east and Putin is now laying down tough conditions for any eventual peace talks.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose country was seen as Ukraine's staunchest military backer and is visiting Kyiv today, has adopted a more cautious approach.

Keir Starmer in Kyiv today. Photographer: Carl Court/AFP/ Getty Images

This also strengthens Moscow's hand.

Trump, who's vowed to end the Ukraine conflict in short order, said last week he's preparing for a meeting with the Russian president.

In addition to keeping the roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory he controls, top of Putin's list of demands is that Ukraine should never join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

For Trump, who's long been skeptical Ukraine can regain occupied lands and doesn't support its NATO membership, this wouldn't likely be a deal-breaker.

But that's not all.

The Russian leader is also determined to severely curb Ukraine's armed forces and cut to a minimum its ties to the transatlantic alliance — leaving Kyiv with little capacity to defend itself against any future attack.

That's a throwback to punishing terms that Russia tried to dictate to Ukraine in the first few weeks of its invasion back in February 2022.

As Trump prepares to be sworn in on Monday, any negotiations that follow will be extremely tough. — Henry Meyer

A Krab mobile howitzer, donated to the Ukrainian army by Poland, in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine, on Jan. 9. Photographer: Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of reneging on parts of a ceasefire agreement that marks a tentative end to a 15-month conflict that's left tens of thousands dead. The fragile reprieve, if it holds, shows how Trump has shaken global politics even before he takes office, while outgoing President Joe Biden can also claim credit for helping deliver a pact he originally outlined more than six months ago.

Canada has drawn up a preliminary list of US-manufactured goods worth C$150 billion ($105 billion) it would target for retaliation if Trump decides to levy tariffs against Canadian products, a source says. When Trump hit Canadian steel and aluminum with levies in 2018, Ottawa responded by targeting US goods including whiskey and washing machines, aiming to put the squeeze on areas where Republican politicians had influence.

With a US ban on TikTok just days away, politicians in both major parties are seeking ways to keep the Chinese-owned video-sharing app accessible for Americans. Trump has sought to delay the prohibition so he can "save" the app he pushed to ban during his previous administration, while the New York Times reported that TikTok CEO Shou Chew plans to attend Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration after being invited to sit "in a position of honor."

Biden warned Americans of a "dangerous concentration of power" in the hands of a "very few ultra-wealthy people" in his farewell address yesterday. The president said he worried of the consequences if the rich used their influence to win tax breaks, roll back efforts to combat climate change, and erode accountability.

Maintaining the dollar as the world's reserve currency is critical to US economic health and the nation's future, Scott Bessent, Trump's nominee for Treasury secretary, will tell a Senate committee hearing today.

Scott Bessent. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg

China will start an investigation into whether the US dumps lower-end chips and unfairly subsidizes its own chipmakers, the Commerce Ministry said today.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol asked a Seoul court to review his detention as he faced renewed questioning by investigators today over his failed martial law declaration. With Yoon's separate impeachment trial set to drag on for several months, the national mood is grim.

Ireland's two dominant political parties will return to power for another five-year term after agreeing a coalition deal yesterday.

Germany's armed forces and defense ministry said they're suspending activity on their accounts on Elon Musk's social-media platform X due to what they called increasing difficulty with "the objective exchange of arguments."

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Chart of the Day

The government of Kosovo, a Balkan nation that declared independence from Serbia in 2008, shut down more than two dozen Serb-run bodies including municipal offices and tax facilities across its territory yesterday, citing the need to tackle criminality in "parallel Serbian institutions." The move sets the tone for Feb. 9 parliamentary elections in which Prime Minister Albin Kurti — accused by the US last year of stoking ethnic tensions — is seeking another term at the helm of the mountainous country carved out of the former Yugoslavia.

And Finally

Global spirits companies Diageo and Pernod Ricard are battling it out in India, where alcohol spending is on the rise even as people drink less in other more developed markets. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi pushing to transform India into a high-income country, premium distillers see the world's most populous nation as one of their biggest money-making markets. But those corporate ambitions are running into the reality of a byzantine web of regulations set by individual states, including exorbitant excise taxes and conflicting licensing laws that hit the bottom line.

A bartender prepares a cocktail at a bar in the upmarket Hauz Khas Village neighborhood of New Delhi. Photographer: Sanjit Das/Bloomberg

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