Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven't yet, sign up here. After incoming US President Donald Trump's pivotal role in reaching a halt — even if temporarily — to the fighting in Gaza, his goal is to repeat that success in Ukraine. It won't be easy. The full-scale war that started nearly three years ago when Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded the neighboring state is still raging. Russia this week attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure, including a natural-gas underground storage site, which it called retaliation for Ukrainian strikes using US and British missiles and after Ukraine hit Russian energy assets. Since last year, Russian troops have been steadily inching forward in their offensive in Ukraine's east and Putin is now laying down tough conditions for any eventual peace talks. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose country was seen as Ukraine's staunchest military backer and is visiting Kyiv today, has adopted a more cautious approach. Keir Starmer in Kyiv today. Photographer: Carl Court/AFP/ Getty Images This also strengthens Moscow's hand. Trump, who's vowed to end the Ukraine conflict in short order, said last week he's preparing for a meeting with the Russian president. In addition to keeping the roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory he controls, top of Putin's list of demands is that Ukraine should never join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. For Trump, who's long been skeptical Ukraine can regain occupied lands and doesn't support its NATO membership, this wouldn't likely be a deal-breaker. But that's not all. The Russian leader is also determined to severely curb Ukraine's armed forces and cut to a minimum its ties to the transatlantic alliance — leaving Kyiv with little capacity to defend itself against any future attack. That's a throwback to punishing terms that Russia tried to dictate to Ukraine in the first few weeks of its invasion back in February 2022. As Trump prepares to be sworn in on Monday, any negotiations that follow will be extremely tough. — Henry Meyer A Krab mobile howitzer, donated to the Ukrainian army by Poland, in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine, on Jan. 9. Photographer: Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu/Getty Images |
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