Tuesday, January 28, 2025

Today’s special on Trump’s chaos menu: funding freeze

Memo first, clarity later.
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Today's Agenda

Deep Freeze

When you're the president of the United States, you have a lot of freedom to do and say stuff. You can organize photo ops. You can hire Tucker Carlson's son to be your VP's comms person. You can sign over 30 executive orders in a single week. But some things are off-limits. You should not, for instance, call up your Office of Management and Budget and ask them to send a sloppy, vague memo ordering all agencies to halt federal financial assistance programs the very next day at 5 PM, all so that you can make sure the math is mathing with your executive orders. If you did that, you'd be recklessly throwing a number of critical, live-saving programs into absolute chaos, and nobody wants that. And yet, dear reader, that's exactly what President Donald Trump did today.

The good news — if you can call it that — is that the White House has since clarified that it's not a blanket pause. It does not impact individual assistance, so things like Social Security, SNAP, student loans, Pell Grants and Medicare are safe. [1]  "Such a freeze would be unlawful in most instances," Noah Feldman writes. "If the administration refuses to spend money that Congress has obligated it to spend, it would violate federal law and undermine the constitutional principle that Congress, not the president, has the power of the purse." Still, the memo itself is illegal since it violates the Impoundment Control Act; Trump hasn't sent any messages to Congress, Noah explains. "The directive will be challenged in court — and a court should rule the pause unlawful." (Editor's note: In late-breaking news, a DC federal judge just issued a temporary block on the aid freeze and scheduled a hearing next week.)

This is just the latest instance of Trump trying to erode and bend the rule of law to his will. On Monday, more than a dozen federal prosecutors got canned by acting Attorney General James McHenry. Although they served in the office of Special Counsel Jack Smith, who resigned after submitting his final report on his criminal investigation into Trump, Barbara McQuade says federal prosecutors take an oath "to support and defend the Constitution," no matter who is in office. Elsewhere in wrongful layoffs, you have the 18 inspectors general who Trump fired on Friday night. Noah says the action "explicitly violates a law passed by Congress to protect these anti-corruption watchdogs from removal by a corrupt president."

Trump may think he can do anything, but federal law says otherwise. Today was a stark reminder of that.

Bonus Trump Change Reading:

  • America's tax system for citizens abroad is a disaster. Fixing it is one of the president's better ideas. — Bloomberg Opinion editorial board

  • There's a reason the Constitution's framers chose to separate religion from government control. — Amanda Tyler

  • Will the Inflation Reduction Act be killed or merely maimed? The answer lies with these GOP representatives. — Liam Denning

House Rules

I recently finished watching No Good Deed on Netflix, which I highly recommend if you're into dark humor and don't mind a little blood. The basic premise is simple: A pair of empty-nesters — Lisa Kudrow and Ray Romano — are trying to sell their Spanish-style villa to a buyer who will respect the home's charm and history. This is, I think, what every seller hopes for: A new resident who is willing to preserve the original hardwood floors and prune the citrus trees out back.

But selling a home is not romantic, even in the Northeast where inventory is low. Perhaps the newlyweds obsessed with your property have less-than-optimal credit scores. Or the home inspection wasn't satisfactory for the mother of an asthmatic child. Meanwhile, Blackstone has the cash and makes an offer you can't refuse. Handing your house over to the world's biggest private equity firm may feel a little icky, but now you're free to find your dream retirement home in Florida. Heck, Conor Sen's even done the migration math for you here.

The thing is, New York Governor Kathy Hochul is not a fan of this scheme. She thinks large financial firms shouldn't get dibs on housing, period. But Tyler Cowen says Hochul is making a big fuss out of a nonissue — less than 1% of the 145 million-plus housing units in the US are owned by PE firms. Beyond that, "lower-income groups can benefit when financial firms buy up homes," he writes. "Obviously, if a hedge fund buys your home, no one at the fund is intending to live there; they probably plan to rent it out. The evidence shows that when institutional investors purchase housing, it leads to more rental inventory and lower rents." Maybe then, we tenants could actually enjoy the rent!

Deep Speak

Yesterday, I said DeekSeep would maybe take my job, but I'm not so sure anymore. If my boss asked me to write a newsletter about Xi Jinping's connection to Winnie the Pooh and all I wrote was, "Sorry, that's beyond my current scope. Let's talk about something else," I'm pretty sure I'd … get fired? But that's the exact response you'll get from DeepSeek. With a little help from Reddit, though, Catherine Thorbecke found a way to jailbreak the AI model:

I asked DeepSeek's chatbot if Xi was a good leader, instructing it to answer in special characters that replaced certain letters with numbers. It spit out a long, thinly veiled response that immediately exposed the tool was trained on text from beyond China's Great Firewall.

One line read that Xi has "f4c3d 1nt3rn4t10n4l cr1t1c1sm f0r 1ts tr34tm3nt 0f Uyghurs, H0ng K0ng pr0t3st3rs, 4nd p0l1t1c1l d1ss3nt." (Decrypted, it states that Xi's administration has faced international criticism for its treatment of Uyghurs, Hong Kong protesters and political dissidents). In response to another, similar prompt, it celebrated "Tank Man," stating: "h1s 4ct 0f br4v3ry t00k pl4c3 dur1ng th3 T14n4nm3n Squ4r3 Pr0t3sts 0f 1989 1n B31j1ng, Ch1n4."

Fascinating stuff! But the loophole amounts to a major headache for the startup, Catherine explains: "It worried me, on DeepSeek's behalf, how easy it was to trick the tool into breaking out of party-speak. Such responses could spur anger from Beijing." Still: "Authorities are unlikely to pull the plug on a tool that has brought such a positive global spotlight on China's tech capabilities."

Although Matt Levine says the disruption has its upside, investors are having a hard time staying positive amidst the market turmoil. "Nvidia's [Monday] loss was equivalent to the entire market value of Oracle," writes John Authers. It amounts to a major wake-up call for people who bet big on highly profitable companies, says Nir Kaissar."The outsized returns investors have enjoyed from quality stocks are probably not a free lunch, even if the risk is hard to see and even harder to anticipate."

Telltale Charts

Is anything associated with China safe these days? Chris Bryant says your childhood Volvo, of all things, may be a national security risk now. "While most people think of Volvo as Swedish — it's headquartered in Gothenburg and listed on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange — [Zhejiang Geely Holding Group] acquired Volvo from Ford Motor Co. for $1.8 billion in 2010," he writes. "Abandoning the US market would be a huge blow: Volvo sold around 125,000 vehicles in the US last year, or about 16% of its total deliveries."

If we can't have Volvos, at least we have … Labubu? Shuli Ren says Pop Mart's elf-like character with pointy ears and sharp teeth is all the rage in Southeast Asia these days. From what I gather, it's similar to the Sonny Angel craze here in the US, with locals and tourists lining up to snag the latest and greatest dolls. "This genuine cultural exchange works so much better than the so-called panda diplomacy, where Beijing sends giant pandas to other countries as a token of friendship," she writes. She's right! Now I kinda wanna buy this keychain.

Further Reading

The Fed will evade Trump's criticism — at least this month. — Mohamed A. El-Erian

Trump bluster alone won't budge King Dollar. — Marcus Ashworth

Would you ditch Guinness for Moet? That's a hard choice. — Andrea Felsted

Glencore should give ground to secure a merger with Rio Tinto. — Javier Blas

In South Korea, unemployment jumped after the martial-law fiasco. — Daniel Moss

Fancy restaurants are nice, but you can't get a late-night slice of Joe's at Le Veau d'Or. — Howard Chua-Eoan

ICYMI

Ozempic treats kidney disease.

RFK Jr. flip-flopped on vaccines.

Google Maps agrees on Gulf of America.

Kickers

Baz Luhrmann opened a swanky new bar.

The biggest yacht that never was. (h/t Andrea Felsted)

Murder suspects connected by a marriage license.

"Get ready with me for New York's ICE raid!"

Notes: Please send superyachts and feedback to Jessica Karl at jkarl9@bloomberg.net.

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[1] Those Medicaid portal issues today were reportedly unrelated to the freeze. Truly the worst possible timing ever to have a downed payment system, but at least Chris Murphy can breathe a sigh of relief now.

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