| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a merit-based program for skilled workers of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. Friday morning was a time of winners and losers. Among the winners were my colleagues at Bloomberg Economics, who had skeptics raising eyebrows when they predicted the December payroll data in the US would show a rise of 268,000 jobs, against a widespread consensus among economists that the number would come in around 100K less. The final tally: 256,000. I guess you could say President Joe Biden's administration was a winner as well, but: just enough, too late. The losers? Hiring managers, recruiters and anybody who owns a business, I guess. [1] It's the kind of tight jobs market that demands outside-the-box entrepreneurial thinking, gutsy calls to find new avenues of revenue and, it turns out, a superego that's really more of a super ego. Jessica found this for her Wednesday wrap, but it's worth revisiting: Understandably, Wasserman — who deleted the tweet then shut down his X account, albeit not before posting "Mama, I'm going viral!" — was pilloried for tone-deafness, tax avoidance and attending my daughter's university. But his job offer probably seemed familiar to four types of people: insurance executives; the Kardashians (natch); anybody who stayed awake through Martin Scorsese's Gangs of New York; and New York City parents who have, invariably and repeatedly, had to accompany grade-school field trips to the New York City Fire Museum.  As those of us gang-pressed into chaperoning know, in 19th-century NYC — back when my neighborhood thoroughfare was known as Death Avenue — not only were the fire departments private enterprises paid by insurers, they were basically at war with each other: racing to the scenes of fires, brawling as homes turned to cinder, looting whatever remained, and allegedly starting blazes so as to line their own pockets. (It didn't help that there were two New York police forces at the time, engaged in their own violent rivalry.) So Wasserman is nobody's darling, but he's hardly Boss Tweed. As for the happy data on actual jobs, Jonathan Levin finds a surprise loser: the incoming president. "The Federal Reserve is probably heading into wait-and-see mode," he predicts. "Friday's excellent labor market report showed that the unemployment rate fell to just 4.1%, meaningfully reducing the urgency to cut policy rates in a world where inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target. President-elect Donald Trump should follow the central bank's lead and put tariffs, deportations and any extra tax cuts on hold, at least until the economy proves that it would benefit from intervention." The bogeyman is the same one that helped doom Biden: "Engineering a strong economy is hard, but maintaining one is a bit easier," Jonathan adds, "if the next administration is willing to exercise some humility and sit on its hands for a few months." Or, perhaps, Team Trump could help end an unfortunate stigma, says Kathryn Anne Edwards: "Jobs with lower wages and fewer benefits are often derided as 'low skilled,' a catchall phrase to describe work that requires little formal education. It's another way of saying that although such workers may get little in terms of benefits, it's all they deserve," she writes. "Such thinking is short-sighted, and a lost opportunity for the economy to potentially build a new path to the middle class for millions of Americans." That opportunity for upward mobility is being provided, somewhat paradoxically, by the innovations of those at the top of the salary food chain: techies. "It's not as if there's a magic wand that can be waved that turns the service worker Cinderella into the middle-class princess," Kathryn adds. "The output of a factory is more valuable in the economy than the output of certain services. Cars cost more than a meal, for example, which helps determine the wages of workers in the auto and restaurant industries ... But policy can play a role, because that car can be built with the help of AI tools and fewer humans — or made elsewhere — but that restaurant isn't going anywhere and will need people to prepare, serve and clean."  If you're a coding genius, but not a citizen, then it's all about politics, politics, politics (and maybe a little racism). "A vitriolic debate has engulfed what's typically an arcane corner of immigration policy: the H-1B visa for college-educated foreigners," says the Editorial Board. "Proponents say the visa is an essential but insufficient pipeline of global talent for hard-to-fill jobs … Critics say visa holders are stealing jobs from American workers and driving down wages." Part of the problem is the program itself, which is based on a lottery that can be gamed by Big Tech. "Scrapping the lottery in favor of a merit-based program for skilled workers that assigns points for various criteria, including education and work experience, would make sense," the editors suggest. "Another effective approach, considered during President-elect Donald Trump's first administration, would prioritize allocation of visas by wages. The goal should be to capitalize on America's unique ability to lure exceptional talent from all over the world." In one corner of that world, which also happens to be the world's most populous nation, the alarm bells are ringing. Temporary work permits are the only real way to employ Indian immigrants in the US, notes Mihir Sharma, and that pipeline may be closing. "The conventional wisdom is that we represent a model minority, the 'good' immigrants," Mihir warns. "Clearly, the conventional wisdom is wrong. All it took for this to be discovered was a couple of Indians being given minor positions in President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration. All those quiet, industrious engineers aren't as invisible as they thought: They have been seen, and they are resented." Gearoid Reidy thinks Japan should be as worried as India, given Biden's rejection of Nippon Steel's attempted takeover of US Steel. Gearoid found it "shocking to see the reason for Biden's opposition put so starkly: That the US president believes he possesses 'credible evidence' that Nippon Steel 'might take action that threatens to impair the national security' of the US." Just as Indians have been a "model minority," Japan is a model ally, promising to double defense spending over five years. "It's an ignominious closing act in a bilateral relationship that Biden did so much to promote," laments Gearoid. "And ironically enough, it leaves one way forward for the deal: for Trump to have one of his trademark changes of heart over his opposition to the takeover. In one fell swoop, he would boost investment, secure US jobs and tweak Biden's nose — all while improving ties with Tokyo at little cost to himself." Sure: Flip on US Steel. Flip on TikTok. Flip on SALT. Flip on weed. Flip on the filibuster. Flip on crypto. Flip on your own vice president. The Donald can flip on whatever and whoever he wants. Maybe, yet again, even the richest man on earth …. Bonus Fire Reading: What's the World Got in Store? - US CPI, Jan. 15: Bond-Yield Breakout Is Much More Than Inflation — John Authers
- NATO defense chiefs meet, Jan. 15: Why Would Trump Buy Greenland When He Can Rent It? — Liam Denning
- China 4Q and annual GDP, Jan. 16: Scott Bessent Can Break China's Stubborn Central Bank, Too — Shuli Ren
While we can't blame Daniel Day Lewis and Leonardo DiCaprio for burning down Malibu, it seems the internet (and a certain incoming president and his ultra-wealthy sidekick) are finding some equally implausible scapegoats, including DEI, tiny fish, Ukraine and space lasers. "This is the new denialism. Without saying outright that climate change is false, skeptics blow other factors out of proportion and minimize the impacts of global warming — providing the opposite of a nuanced picture," writes Lara Williams. "Once upon a time, activists and scientists alike thought that once people saw the impacts of climate change firsthand, they'd be moved to believe in the urgency of the crisis and, crucially, to act." It seems the California wildfires are proof that isn't the case: "Rather than baring the truth for all to see, misinformation and new flavors of climate denial are thriving in the chaos," says Lara. Conspiracy theories aside, some seemingly wacky ideas might be worth considering. During a similar disaster in 2019, Virginia Postrel suggested using fire to fight fire, promoting kindling sales as a free-market incentive, and even bringing in goats (to eat ground cover, not those pesky little fish). Six years later, one thing she wrote remains true: "Thinking about California's fires as problems to be ameliorated rather than nature's judgment raining down upon the enemy still leaves plenty to argue about." Problem is, the arguments have simply gotten more absurd. "It's always worth examining whether fire and water management could have been improved — governments sometimes do create vulnerabilities through neglect or maladaptation," Lara writes. "Sadly, lesson-learning isn't what Trump and his fellow deniers are trying to achieve with their online rants." Then again, Trump was able to win the presidency despite crazy claims that Haitian immigrants were chowing down on Ohioans' dogs. So why not power into office on rumors about ray gun-wielding Ukrainian smelt? Notes: Please send Humboldt Fog and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net. |
No comments:
Post a Comment