Crypto News: The Forecast: Tesla Under Trump 2.0

Welcome back to The Forecast, where we help you think about the future — from next week to next decade.

This week we're looking ahead to Tesla's earnings, keeping an eye on insiders selling stock and weighing the chances of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Tesla Under Trump 2.0

When Tesla reports earnings on Wednesday, it will be Elon Musk's first call with Wall Street analysts since President Trump was re-elected. If you've never listened to an earnings call, you might want to tune into this one.

Musk has been the CEO of Tesla since 2008, and he's helmed every single earnings call except for one since the electric car maker went public in 2010. Now, he's deeply embedded in the Trump administration and leading the cost-cutting effort known as the Department of Government Efficiency, or "DOGE."

For Tesla investors, the January call is typically a look at the year ahead. In October, Musk said that he thought Tesla could achieve "20% to 30% vehicle growth next year." He also predicted that Tesla "will become the most valuable company in the world, and probably by a long shot."

Among the many questions for Wednesday: How many vehicles does Tesla plan to sell in 2025, and is a cheaper model — even if that is a lower-cost Model 3 or Y — still in the works for the first half the year? What does the "S-Curve" look like for the Cybertruck?

Musk made a strategic decision last year to reposition Tesla as a robotics and AI company, so there will be scores of questions about the latest iterations of software known as Autopilot and FSD, as well as Optimus, Tesla's humanoid robot.

Given Musk's role within the Trump administration, he's also likely to get peppered with questions about trade, tariffs, tax credits and the Inflation Reduction Act. Which reminds me: Whatever happened with Tesla's plans to build a factory in Mexico? Is that completely dead, or just permanently on ice?

It is unprecedented for an American CEO to have the kind of influence and access to the President that Musk currently does. How long it will last is anyone's guess.

— Dana Hull, Bloomberg News

Predictions

Davos panel says inflation "hasn't yet died": "Most of the body of the genie is in the bottle, kind of getting stuck there," said IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva. "But the legs are kind of hanging still out." — Craig Stirling, Bloomberg News

US recession watch isn't over: "If Trump's pro-inflationary policies start kicking in, the next move by the Fed could very well be to hike rates, not lower them… The central bank might even need to raise rates enough to cause a recession in order to get monetary policy to have any anti-inflationary impact at all." — Edward Harrison, The Everything Risk

And the UK is on recession watch for the foreseeable future: "The UK's trend rate of growth has fallen, meaning the shocks that would previously have prompted growth just to slow, are now enough to generate a fall in output." — Dan Hanson, Bloomberg Economics (Terminal subscribers only)

India could end up with the world's largest data center: "Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Group is building what may become the world's biggest data center by capacity… in the town of Jamnagar. [It is] expected to have a total capacity of three gigawatts." — Saritha Rai, Bloomberg News

AI-designed drugs are coming: "'We'll hopefully have some AI-designed drugs in clinical trials by the end of the year,' Demis Hassabis, who leads [Alphabet Inc subsidiaries DeepMind and Isomorphic Labs] said on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos." — Marissa Newman, Bloomberg News

Keep an Eye On

Shares of US companies roared to a record this week, seemingly shrugging off worries about tariffs, immigration and inflation. Yet, company executives are doing something decidedly less bullish: selling their stocks at a rapid pace.

A gauge of insider sentiment that tallies the number of buyers versus sellers shows there were just 98 companies where at least one insider purchased the company's shares this month through Jan. 22, compared with 447 at which at least one insider sold, according to data compiled by the Washington Service. With a little over a week of trading left in January, that buy-sell ratio, at 0.22, is currently on track to be the lowest in data going back to 1988.

— Esha Dey, Bloomberg News

What Are the Chances...

21%

The chance Trump creates a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days, according to Polymarket. On Thursday, he signed an executive order with several crypto-related provisions. It included a working group that would evaluate the creation of a digital asset stockpile, but stopped short of directly calling for its creation. (Forecast as of 4:15 p.m. ET on Friday.)

Weekend Reads

Parents Have a Worse Relationship to Tech Than Their Kids

Masayoshi Son's Biggest Gamble Yet May Finally Secure His Legacy

The Case for Keeping Dead Apps Around on Your Phone

Same-Sex Marriage Win Opens Up 'Rainbow Tourism' in Thailand

Survivors of Bhopal's Toxic Gas Leak Await a Cleanup, 40 Years Later

Week Ahead

Sunday: Belarus holds its presidential election.

Monday: China's PMI survey is expected to show manufacturing declining slightly in January; the State Bank of Pakistan is expected to cut interest rates by 1%.

Tuesday: Boeing reports earnings; Chile will likely keep interest rates unchanged; the Lunar New Year begins throughout Asia.

Wednesday: Tesla, Microsoft, Meta and ASML report earnings; the Fed will likely leave interest rates unchanged; the Bank of Canada may cut rates a quarter point.

Thursday: The ECB will likely lower rates by a quarter point — though inflation concerns are making a comeback; Apple reports earnings amid declining iPhone sales in China.

Friday: The US publishes PCE data; Japan reports Tokyo CPI; Exxon, Chevron and Samsung report earnings.

Also: More Trump nominees face Congressional hearings, including Howard Lutnick (Commerce) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Health and Human Services) on Wednesday, and Kash Patel (FBI) on Thursday.

Have a nice Sunday and a productive week.

— Walter Frick and Silvia Killingsworth, Weekend Edition; Dana Hull and Esha Dey, Bloomberg News