| With Donald Trump returning to the White House this week, it's worth thinking through how we should judge his new presidency and, in particular, his economic record. The US economy today is the envy of the world, by many measures outperforming its peers since the pandemic. And yet the inescapable problem, as Joe Biden and Democrats learned in November, is that US voters don't see it that way. Trump's 2017 inaugural address centered on the idea of returning power and prosperity to the people. But the gap between America's strong economy and Americans' economic pessimism suggests that traditional economic measures aren't the right criteria by which to judge Trump's track record the second time around. Instead, we should look at measures that go beyond simple growth or GDP. And they haven't been great over the past eight years. Inequality
Income inequality increased during Trump's first presidency and remains near a historic high. Trump and Biden have both focused on manufacturing as part of the answer. But factory employment as a share of overall employment is at a historic low. The inequality in America goes beyond jobs, income and wealth — particularly when you realize that those who don't go beyond high school live significantly shorter lives than those who get a college degree.
Housing
The economic angst in this past election wasn't just about grocery prices or runaway post-pandemic inflation. Even in the pre-Covid times, the American Dream seemed increasingly unattainable for many in the US. And today its central pillar, homeownership, feels harder to achieve than it has in decades. Trump's presidency might reasonably be judged at least partly by access to homeownership. Technology and Power
Where America ends up may also hinge on where Trump's new relationship with tech oligarchs takes it. His embrace of Elon Musk, AI, crypto and a tech-bro vision of the world could deliver either of two paths. This is hard to measure, but the potential outcomes are strikingly different. There is a utopian scenario in which, set free of government intrusion, innovation leads us out of crises. AI makes Americans more productive and happier while crypto at least makes them richer. Then there is the dystopian path, in which unregulated AI not only displaces workers but becomes an algorithmic gatekeeper that chooses who gets a job or a loan. Meanwhile, free from oversight, another crypto bubble yields a financial crisis. Biden warned in a farewell address last week that the US is entering a gilded age that threatens the ability of everyday people to thrive. In the end, the accuracy of that statement may be the measure of success that matters most for Trump's presidency. Will US voters four years from now see the world's largest economy as the rest of the globe does? Or will they see a land ruled by oligarchs and be even more disenchanted? — Shawn Donnan, Bloomberg News | 
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