Thursday, January 23, 2025

Swaying Trump on Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy set out Ukraine's expectations
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The jostling has begun to stake out positions as US President Donald Trump moves to fulfill his pledge to bring a quick end to Russia's war in Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy set out Ukraine's expectations in an interview with Bloomberg News yesterday.

While he heaped praise on Trump as capable of pushing Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept peace, Zelenskiy also urged him not to strike a deal behind Ukraine's back. US troops must be part of any peacekeeping force that may be deployed in Ukraine, he said, to provide security guarantees and prevent any future Russian attack.

WATCH: Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait speaks with Zelenskiy in Davos.

Trump took to social media soon after to urge Putin to "MAKE A DEAL" or face further punishing economic sanctions. "We can do it the easy way, or the hard way," he said.

The Kremlin played down the ultimatum today, though it likely startled Moscow given that Putin and Trump have yet to have their first phone conversation since the US president won reelection in November. 

Hours before Trump's inauguration on Monday, Putin had complimented the US leader and said Russia was ready for "mutually respectful" talks with him about the war.

Russia has weathered years of sweeping sanctions, and it's unlikely Putin will be forced to the negotiating table by the threat of more. But pressure on its economy is growing and the US has options for increasing the pain, including by targeting Russian energy sales.

Putin and Zelenskiy both know Trump would be very reluctant to put US troops on the ground in Ukraine. Zelenskiy made clear he believes Europe lacks the clout to provide sufficient security guarantees without the US, while Putin wants to prevent any foreign military presence in Ukraine.

Each leader is striving to shape Trump's view on how the war should be resolved.

Their eagerness to win him over may allow Trump the space he seeks to negotiate a deal that will stick. — Anthony Halpin

A 122-mm howitzer D-30 in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine on Jan. 11. Photographer: Ukrinform/NurPhoto/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

Trump will deliver a video address to the World Economic Forum today, but while he's not showing up in person, he's the common theme uniting participants at the annual meeting of the global elite in Davos. That includes his fellow world leaders, who range in their attitudes to Trump from celebration, to hope, to keeping their heads down.

In Trump's first 36 hours back in the White House, he threatened to slap tariffs on the top four US trading partners as soon as next week, but their absence so far sees many critics reading the latest saber-rattling as negotiation ploys for now. Separately, Trump downplayed the national-security risk posed by TikTok, days after offering the Chinese-owned social-video app a reprieve from legislation that would have forced it to shut down.

The TikTok app. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg

Argentine President Javier Milei feels vindicated in his tear-it-down approach to governing, but is also learning its limits. While previously slamming Beijing as "assassins," he referred to "very positive meetings" with Chinese embassy officials and President Xi Jinping in a Bloomberg interview, displaying a pragmatic streak that risks being at odds with the new US administration.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman told Trump that his country is willing to expand its investments and trade with the US in the coming four years by $600 billion or more if opportunities arose, according to state-run news agency SPA. Also, Riyadh faces a pivotal moment in its push to build a metals and mining hub, with foreign players still showing more hunger for the kingdom's cash than a willingness to deploy their capital.

President Gustavo Petro's attempts to seek "total peace" in Colombia have taken another blow after a week of fighting between guerrilla factions in one of the biggest cocaine-producing regions. Tens of thousands of refugees are fleeing Catatumbo, a remote region close to the border with Venezuela, to escape the most intense outbreak of violence since a 2016 peace deal.

Rebels of the National Liberation Army patrol in Choco province, Colombia. Photographer: Daniel Munoz/AFP/Getty Images

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio criticized Beijing's "dangerous and destabilizing" actions in the South China Sea, reaffirming Washington's "ironclad" commitment to defend the Philippines.

Qatar's success in helping to broker the long-awaited Gaza ceasefire has enhanced its reputation as an international mediator, with officials now considering which other conflicts they could help resolve.

Africa's biggest crude producer, Nigeria, has emerged from a years-long output slump due to improved security, creating a quandary for the government that badly needs the extra revenue but is committed to OPEC+ production limits.

The ceasefire agreement that paused the war between Israel and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon will likely be extended when it expires next week, sources say.

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Chart of the Day

A surge of solar-power output helped the green-energy source overtake coal-fired stations in the European Union for the first time last year. The milestone is the latest sign of coal's decline in the EU as the bloc seeks to shift away from the highly polluting fossil fuel. It's still far from enough to limit coal's global role, though, with China-driven demand set to keep breaking records in the coming years. 

And Finally

For decades, wildfires have followed a predictable pattern, burning most intensely in the Northern Hemisphere summer before shifting to the Southern Hemisphere from December through March. Climate change is upending that rhythm, turning what were once discrete fire seasons into one ash-filled year and forcing governments to weigh commitments to help each other against their own national interests. That's causing a resource scramble for equipment from "Super Scooper" water-bombing planes to firetrucks and protective equipment.

A helicopter drops fire retardant in Camarillo, California, in November. Photographer: David McNew/Getty Images

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